Monday, 18 November 2024

Indian Bid For Olympics 2036: An Analysis

Source: Current affairs adda

 On 4th November, 2024, Indian sporting fraternity was in for a pleasant surprise when the Indian Olympic Association led by PT Usha submitted a letter of intent to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to host the 2036 Olympics and Paralympics in India. While further details of the same have not been announced yet, social media is abuzz with various possible names of places/cities where the Olympics can be conducted, one of the most common name coming to everyone's mind is of Ahmedabad which hosts the gigantic 1.5 lakh capacity Narendra Modi Cricket Stadium. The naysayers to the Olympics have pointed out to factors such as non usage of stadiums etc. by citing examples of South Africa post the 2010 world cup and Brazil's 2016 FIFA World cup experience or Greece's experience of hosting 2004 Athens Olympics. This article seeks to analyse the economic aspect of Indian Bid for Olympics 2036.

Factor-1: The first factor that influences such events are the country's performance in various sports, across various timelines. Though, India's performance in Olympics has been majorly underwhelming, its due to various structural issues and issues related to pressure management which was the prime reason why India finished fourth in 6 medal events during the recently concluded 2024 Olympics. But, one must not forget that India has consistently delivered well in various regional games like the Asian Games, Commonwealth Games or world championships of various sports like shooting/archery/athletics/wrestling etc. The initiatives like Khelo India Youth Games and Khelo India University Games have been a constant reason why India's average age of representation has also come down.

However, one must not discount the exemplary performance of the Indian Paralympians, who won  record of 29 medals in Paris 2024 and in last 3 Paralympics, have won 54 medals in total along with finishing in top-20 in back to back Paralympics. The Paralympian comittee had an amazing strike as it sent 87 athletes, 29 of them came back with medals, which speaks volumes of the kind of infra support the para- athletes have been recieveing in the nation. In the Paralympics, there are exemplary athletes like Sumit Antil, Avani Lekhara, Yogesh Khatunia who have won back to back medals in their respective sports. 

Also given the factor that, India's stronghold sports like chess/cricket/kabaddi have never made it to Olympics also points out to the factor of  Indian underperformance in the Olympics specifically. To add on factors like, not having enough representation in various disciplines of sports like swimming/athletics/cycling sports also hurts and sort of stops the country from winning medals like what Australia or France do in the Olympics games. Whereas, when India has a decent representation in para-athletics, the country has won bulk medals even in games such as sprint, discus throw etc. Over time, the number of athletics players will rise and this can be a major gamechanger for the country later on. The Indian sports teams of handball, basketball and football are also improving their performance and are in a transition phase which will increase Indian representation in Olympics over the coming few versions of the extravaganza.

The performance historically has not been the most influential factor while deciding who has to host the Olympics, Athens in 2004, Mexico in 1968, Rome in 1960 were conducted in countries which did not have a major sporting legacy, unlike, India where Olympic legends like Neeraj Chopra, Manu Bhaker, PV Sindhu, Milkha Singh, Dhanraj Pillay, Major Dhyan Chand have been produced by the country. Also, it would be only for the second time that the Olympics would be conducted in the Eastern hemisphere after 2008 Beijing Olympics and 1980 Moscow Olympics. This track record of the IOC to award countries only in the Western dominated political system, will also undergo a change if its conducted in a country like India, which is home to 16% of world's population today. 

Factor-2 The second factor influencing the bid will be the strength of sports economy of the country. In total per capita terms, India is not a great sporting power, but the strength of sports economy in the country is immense. The sector contributes to 0.25% of the GDP, along with decreasing imports of sports equipment in the country. Apart from this, the sports economy is also characterized by the types of leagues conducted. India is home to the IPL, which is more valuable than legacy leagues like NBA/UEFA Champions League/La Liga/English Premier League etc. which speaks volumes about the country's sporting economy potential, its only second to the NFL(where incidentally USA does not have a great footballing history). 

Apart from IPL, India is home to various sports leagues like: UTT of Table Tennis, Pro Volleyball League, Pro Kabbadi League, Hockey India League, Indian Super League, I-League, Ultimate Kho-Kho. With cricket leading the way in conducting state level profitable leagues like TNPL, KPL, UPPL etc.  its just a matter of economic reforms in the league structures along with increased private participation that will increase the profitability of hosting such leagues which will make the strength of sports economy to rise in a huge way. This diversity of sports leagues being organised in the country will act as a factor when the Olympic bid has to be decided/allocated.

Even, the leagues of the other nations have a huge viewership in India, which makes perfect sense why leagues like NBA/Serie-A/Ligue 1/Premier League have broadcasting rights in the country along with having Indian fan clubs for teams like FC Barcelona, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Manchester United to name a few. If the IPL model of leagues is applied to the other sports like handball/basketball etc. it would do a world of good for Indian sports as even the federations will have more fiscal power which will increase their bargaining powers in the world sports associations.

Given, the Olympics in the past have been organized in countries like Italy, Russia, Brazil which do not have a diversity in the type of sports leagues conducted, India's sailing in this parameter would be the smoothest. India also has a transparent doping system in NADAs empowered role as an organization which will act as a plus point while deciding the allocation of the sports, as the IOC/WADA have been part of several controversies in the past few years now.

Factor-3: The third most important factor which has many naysayers in the country is the economic burden on the nation. This is a very valid criticism which also makes sense because the examples of Rio, Athens and South Africa in 2010 WC have acted as a severe detterent over the past few years and have discouraged the countries to bid for hosting multilateral sporting events. However, 2 factors are there which can reduce the projected negative impact on the country. The first one is of usage of stadiums, the countries of South Africa/Greece/Brazil struggled post the hosting of Olympics primarily because, the stadiums constructed did not have enough people to use the facilities. This would be negated in a country like India, which has a massive population of 140 crore people which makes the usage of stadiums constant. One example of olympics not being a white elephant is of Beijing Olympics in 2008, where stadiums did not go out of use because China also has a massive population. In fact, the diversity in sports leagues/national games system of India can make sure that the revenues generated in the venues are stronger in the country, even after conducting the games. 

The second way, in which the burden can be reduced is to make sure that the expenditure on the Olympics is diversified over a period of 12 years from now which will make sure, per year expenditure is low and will make the stadiums give increasing returns over time. An additional way would be to conduct, 2032 Youth Olympics in Ahmedabad along with conducting 2032 Winter Olympics which will act as a proper testing ground for the 2036 Olympics & Paralympics. In addition to these 2 events, India must try hard to conduct Asian Games in Ahmedabad along with conducting various pan-Asia tournaments of various sports and world championships of the many individual/team sports which will make sure that the stadiums have world class facilities and also act as constant revenue generators to the governments.

Indian economy by default is a more diversified economy than Greece/Brazil/France whose economic growth stories are dependent on certain cities(in case of Greece its Athens) or sector. In fact, even Gujarat's economy is not fully dependent on Ahmedabad. Cities such as Surat, Vadodara, the upcoming GIFT city, coastal cities, agricultural productivity and industrial productivity of Gujarat cities like Ankleshwar/Bharuch etc. have made sure that Gujarat's economy is safety proof from the fall of real estate prices of Ahmedabad. In fact, within Ahmedabad also, there are regions which have a huge untapped economic potential and whose stocks are rising rapidly.

The only valid economic criticism will be of the sudden shock in real estate rates of Ahmedabad, which may see a huge change post the conduct of Olympics. This can also be reduced if the GIFT city expansion is properly taken care of and if the economic activity also goes up. This holds true for any Indian city that wishes to conduct Olympics and not only to Ahmedabad. The Indian economic factor also makes the country a strong contender for winning the bid for hosting Olympics 2036. Opening of multiple national/state level education institutes in Ahmedabad will also help the Gujarat government to offset any kind of loss in real estates in the city. On the parameter of economic analysis also, India is a strong contender to host the games.

Conclusion: To conclude, India has inherent strengths which is undervalued in the context of sports economy which can help the country to successfully conduct the 2036 Olympics & Paralympics on a grand scale to showcase in front of the world, the real Indian growth story. It would be a great moment of pride for the country if the 2036 games are conducted in the most brilliant country of the world. 

Saturday, 13 July 2024

Optimizing A Shared Vision: Strengthening India-Austria Relations

India-Austria Ties. Source: IndiaTies


Backdrop- 

On 10 July 2024, PM Shri Narendra Modi visited Vienna, the capital of Austria. The visit assumes significant importance as it is after 41 years an Indian Prime Minister has visited Austria, with the last visit being of Smt. Indira Gandhi in 1983. PM Modi in his trip to Austria expressed confidence in improving India-Austria ties in the future. 

Austria is one of the foremost countries of the European Union which established cordial relations with India in 1949 when India was framing its constitution. Indian  diaspora forms a very crucial part of the Austrian society and there are socio-economic similarities between India and Austria which have influenced its engagement over the years.

History & Overview Of India-Austria Relations- 

Austria is a predominantly mountainous nation loocated in Central Europe. The nation is a landlocked nation with neighbours like Italy, Switzerland, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia & Germany. It makes Austria as a centre point in major intra European rivalries which have shaped the country's history over the years. This is much like India which is located amid the greater geopolitical rivalries of the world & has a mountainous terrain in Himalayas. The earlier name of Austria was Ostraicchi till 13th century, the word Austria in 1246 was used for the first time then. Austria also has a rich history of the Habsburg Austro-Hungarian empire which ruled Austria till the 19th century and Austria was also at the epicenter of both the world wars, infact the world war-1 was triggered by the death of Archduke Franz Ferdinand & in the second world war, Austria was an integral part of the axis alliance that was forged between Nazi Germany, Mussolini's Italy and the Samurai's of Japan. 

However, in a major re-alignment post the World Wars, Austria along with Switzerland came to form the neutral core of Europe by not aligning with any bloc during the peak of Cold War, for this Austria signed the much famed Austrian State Treaty of 1955 where it pledged total neutrality. The last 120 years of Austrian & Indian history has had some uncanny similarities, like Austria, even India was also  a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement(not to be confused with full neutrality), it also lost a its citizens while fighting for the British Army in both the world wars(in fact the king of Bikaner played a key role in the Treaty of Versailles). India was a crucial part of the Allied Forces in both the world wars. Today, Austria is a hub of multilateralism with the headquarters of OPEC being based in Austria, IAEA headquarters being situated in Vienna, along with various UN headquarters like UNIS being based out of the capital city of Vienna. India & Austria are crucial member states of  organizations like WTO, World Bank, OECD & WHO.

Hence, the visit of PM Modi post the visit to Austria post the Russian visit also sends a strong message on India's positions on polarizing topics. The fact that PM Modi reiterated India's stance on the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is also a testimony to the importance that Indian policymakers attached to the visit.

In the post world war era, both nations have accepted the norm of democracy. Both countries saw a peaceful transition to democracy which also acts as a bedrock towards relations as quoted by PM Modi in his visit to Austria. Both the nations have parliamentary form of democracy with an upper & lower house. The upper house in both the nations represent the states  & the lower house is elected directly by people.

The only difference in the lower house elections of both the nations is that in Austria there is proportional representative system & in India there is first past the post system. These similarities between the democracy formats is also the tradition of parliamentary exchanges which  have been happening on a year on year basis since 2021. The first of such mechanism was established in the year 2009 which was inaugrated by the visit of Smt. Meira Kumar with a parliamentary delegation.  

The India-Austrian relations were established on 10 November,1949. Year 2024 is the 75 years since formal relations were established. Though the visits between presidents & prime ministers have been lower over the past 75 years, but, they have come between regular intervals. The last presidential visit from India to Austria was in the year of 2011 by Smt. Prattibha Patil which came after an interval of 19 years as far as a presidential visit is concerned. 

Otherwise, there have been many ministerial level of visits like that of Dr. S. Jaishankar in January 2023 & it was followed by a visit of the Austrian foreign minister Mr. Alexander Schallenberg in March 2022. In both the bilateral visits by the foreign ministers, important treaties like MoU on comprehensive migration, gainful occupation of family members of diplomatic staff, visa exemption for diplomatic passport, cultural cooperation on MoU to name a few.

India-Austria Trade Relations-

  India & Austria also enjoy cordial trade relations between them, which is also primarily due to the matching of vision in the political spectrum. India is considered to be an important partner in trade with Austria outside the European Union, as quoted in an article by the ORF. India's GDP is close to 4 trillion$ whereas Austria's GDP is close to 470 billion $. The huge difference is primarily due to the difference in economic structure, technological adoption, geography & population. India's population is close to 150 crores(1.5 billion) & Austria's population is 90 lakh(9 million). India's per capita income is 8230 PPP$ whereas Austria's per capita income is 67,830 PPP$. 

India's Economic Complexity score is 0.64 whereas Austria's score is 1.52. Austria has adopted the Euro Currency since year 2002 for greater economic integration, while India has the INR system. The currency used in Austria prior to the Euro was Austrian Schilling whose exchange value with India was on the cheaper side. The current inflation rate in Austria is 3.3% while in India it is 5.1% as per recent estimates. These details have been given as they are important in the estimation of various parameters related to international trade.

India-Austria trade relations have increased massively over the years, Indian exports to Austria in the year 2023 of products totaled to 1.1 billion$. On the other hand, Austrian exports to India in the year 2023 for products totaled to 9,25,704 million$. The total trade of products is at a cumulative 2.1 billion$. Year on Year as far as Austrian exports(from 2022) are concerned have increased by 67.5  million$, whereas, Indian exports (from 2022) have increased by 35 million$.

The top-5 Indian product exports to Austria have been electrical machinery whose value is worth 7 lakh$, vehicles with value of 83,000$ and nuclear reactors with value of 62,000$, organic chemicals have value of 48,302$ & footwear exports worth 42,000$. Overall these 5 projects have a total worth of almost 60-70% of Indian exports to Austria. 

Indian exports to Austria







Indian imports from Austria







Meanwhile, the top 5 Austrian exports to India are nuclear boilers(worth 2 lakh crores), electrical machinery(1.27 lakh cr), opticals(77,573 cr), man made fibres(56,000 cr) and organic chemicals(56,000 cr). In Austrian exports also  more than 60% of trade is dominated by the top-5 products.

The overall services trade between the 2 nations for the year 2024, Austria exported 140 million$ in year 2020 services to India esp. the equipments of transportation & consumer-equipment services. India did not export any services to Austria since then. This one area results are interesting as Indian growth is mainly translated through services & India's service exports to a high per capita income nation like Austria is minimal. 

Major Takeaways:

  •  Both countries have enjoyed close ties but the lag in visits of prime ministers & presidents on both sides, is a worrying sign though the high level diplomatic exchanges have been frequent of the  years. 
  • Both nations have a similar policy outlook as far as multilateralism is concerned and as far as neutrality is taken into account. In the future it wont be very difficult for India to get the
  •  India-Austria have expanded the ambit of cooperation in recent years to unexplored areas like cooperation in INTERPOL where India handed over the presidency to Austria in the year 2023.
  • India-Austria enjoy cultural relations.
  • Growing bilateral trade relations which is a major positive sign. 

Suggestions & Impact:

  1. The space cooperation which is giving a huge boost to Indian economy must be revived in the bilateral relations between the nations. The last major cooperation between India & Austria in this regard have been the 2013 launch of Austrian satellites namely TUGSAT-1 & UniBRITE which were launched at Satish Dhawan Space Centre. Since then there has not been a big ticket space cooperation that has occured, which can occur now when Indian space sector is projected to have a valuation of 13 billion$. Collaborations in this sector would help India and Austria massively. This can also potentially improve the goods & services trade between the 2 countries.
  2. India & Austria have been strong proponents of multilateralism over decades.One such area of cooperation can be the area of renewable energy & environment where the vision and action of both nations match to a huge extent. Both countries have signed MoUs on such topics in recent history, one possible level of engagement which can improve the relations is to induct Austria into the International Solar Alliance, Global Biofuels Alliance, CDRI & International Big Cats Alliance, of which India is a founding member. This step has the potential to improve environmental collaboration between the nations.
  3. India should take the support of Austria in order to improve its bid for a permanent nation at UNSC bid. Given, Austria's strong stance over multilateralism, gaining support of such a nation would be beneficial for India in aspects such as managing global optics.
  4. The unique culture of parliamentary exchanges must also be expanded to state level assembly exchanges between various Indian states & Austrian states. This would help the states in India to play an active role in framing diplomatic policy of our nation. This would also foster greater cultural understanding between the nations in the long run.
  5. India & Austria must work out a Partial Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in a few product clusters that would be of a great value addition of trade between the nations. Some product clusters that must be covered are: Man-made staple fibres, Apparel articles, vehicles other than railway or trams, Electrical machinery & leather articles whose trade balance is high & has increased consistently over the past 4 years. The PTA for these products can then later on be translated into a FTA with Austria & possibly including Austria's neighbours like Switzerland, Slovakia & Hungary in the future. Such kind of  a calculated trade moves would certainly boost India's overall trade balance with the European Union at large. 
  6. India must also look to include Austria in its BRICS+ vision whenever the next round of expansion takes place. With such a movie, Austria would also get a greater access to interact & negotiate policies with nations like UAE, Brazil, Egypt all of whom are a part of BRICS+ today. BRICS would also benefit from the induction of Austria into the BRICS+ grouping, as it would boost the multilateral character of the organization, which is crucial in today's day & time.
  7. The number of supermarkets for the vibrant Indian diaspora in Austria must also be increased.
India-Austria Trade Balances of various products

Conclusion: 
To conclude, India-Austria ties have a huge potential to improve in the future given both nations reinnovate & restructure their engagement policy from time to time.

References:

1. https://fsi.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/INDIA-AUSTRIA_june_2023.pdf
2. https://intracen.org/resources/data-and-analysis/trade-statistics 
3.https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/it-was-electrifying-indian-diaspora-in-austria-thrilled-by-pm-modis-speech/videoshow/111647449.cms?from=mdr 
4. https://www.deccanherald.com/india/india-austria-friendship-to-get-stronger-in-times-to-come-pm-modi-on-meeting-austrian-chancellor-3099593

Sunday, 27 August 2023

India-Spain bilateral relations: A valuable ally in Iberian Peninsula

Credit: Atlantic Council

Introduction: 

Spain is a densely populated country in Europe. It is one of the most geographically affected countries    which has decided as well as shaped its past, present & probably future as well. Right from its history in Gibraltar to its vision of ruling entire Europe, or creating one of the largest colonial empire which had majority countries of South America except Brazil, Carribean Islands & some countries of North America under its rule. It is also one of those countries which supported the Nazi Germany in 1939 but soon in cold war it was able to side with NATO when it entered the alliance in the year of 1982. Even across its thousand year old history, Spain has been able to judge the situation with alarcity & accuracy  which has led to it never being in the wrong side of historical decisions. Spain's median age is 44 years which is in stark contrast to India's 25 years. 

Geographically speaking, Spain is Europe's fourth largest country which is located near the Iberian peninsula which makes it one of the most interesting country to analyze with respect Spain is one of the most complex countries in the world with this regard as the phrase time is powerful, fits apt for the Spainiards. The country's geography is surrounded by a route to North America, South America, Northern Africa Europe as well. Since,it is also a part of the Iberian peninsula its been an important part of the overall geopolitical spectrum of West Europe. Spain has about 528 small & big rivers which makes it a resource rich nation, its also home to minerals like copper- tungsten-flurospar to name a few. Spain has a huge coastline of 5,755 km which makes it one of world's well connected maritime country. 

The country also suffers from the issue of Catalan independence & Basque region revolts which has threatened peace, prosperity & development over the past few years, however despite all these ups & downs, Spanish relations with the Asian giant India has remained cordial as well as friendly over the last 75 years, in fact the shared civilizational history transcends time as far as both these countries are concerned. If Spain had charismatic empires like Ferninand-II, Charles V, India also had brave rulers like Rani Naiki Devi, Rani Durgawati & Rajadhiraj Samduragupta.

India & Spain established formal relations in 1956, the time when the then incumbent PM of India, Shri. Jawaharlal Nehru won the second general election conducted in the country, this was a historic move given that Spain is a country whose influence extends beyond Barcelona to Villarel & extends till countries of Latin America like Colombia-Mexico to name a few with virtue of the Spanish language, Spanish is the offical language of 20 countries & is also one of the 6 official languages of the United Nations. The population density of both the countries are roughly the same 35/100 sq.km & for India its 481 square kilometer which makes both the countries similar according to demographics..

When the medium of language is familiar to one country it improves the soft cultural power of that country in the other nations and the sense of belongingness is also strengthened in such cases. Spanish speaking countries are usually in the South American continent and the continent of North American continet. The Spanish were able to gain such a huge empire by virtue of  commanders like Hernan Cortes to name a few. Similarly, India is a home to more than 1500 languages which penetrated the world before the partition of India forced by the colonial rulers in 1947.It shows that Indian engagement started even before the independence of India from clutches of Britain. 

If India is the mother of democracy with roots tracing back to Lichavi kingdom, Spain is one of those countries which has transistioned to a democracy after an extended period of dictatorship. These examples prove that the basics of thought between India & Spain match to a great extent.

Spain has a democracy in which the head of state is the monarch family of Felipe VI  currently in charge of the country with a separate proportional representation system whose elected prime minister is Pedro Sanchez.Whereas, India has an indirect system of election for president where all MPs & MLAs, MLCs vote for the president which happens to be the first tribal woman leader, Smt.Draupadi Murmu & the first past the post system based on which the PM is elected by the common people in the Lok Sabha elections. Just like how Bharat has 2 houses of Rajya Sabha & Lok Sabha, Spain also has 2 houses one for the deputies and senates though the contexts are same. If India has system of state government then Spain has the system of autonomous communities which is strongly embedded in the same. 

India's economic-political engagement with Spain will not only benefit it in Europe but also with other countries to the far west continent. The India-Spain relations engagement at a political level have been less as compared to India's tumltous history with many other European countries since the time of its independence. 

Political engagement:

Political engagement can be judged by the number of state visits undertaken by the nations in the last 75 years, as the bureaucratic machinery is more than busy in usual. The last political engagement came when the incumbent PM Narendra Modi paid an official bilateral visit to Spain in May 2017. PM Modi met Pedro Sanchez on sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aries in December 2018. The 2017 visit was an official visit by an Indian PM after close to after 28 years in the startegically located nation of Spain.  The last visit was by ex Indian PM, Rajiv Gandhi in year 1988. Multiple ministerial level visits by Smt. Sushma Swaraj in the year 2018 in Spain, the spain PM. Pedro Sanchez also addressed the Raisina Dialogue session in New Delhi in 2019.  The CoP-25 meet held in Spain was also an opportunity which enhanced the climate diplomacy between India & Spain, where Minister of Environment Prakash Javadekar was also a chief guest for the same. 

MoS for External Affairs V. Murleedharan visited Spain for the ASEM Foreign Ministers meet.ASEM stands for Asian-Europe Meeting which has a political dialogue to enhance relations & various forms of cooperation between partners. It was founded in 1996 of which both India & Spain along with heavyweight geopolitical countries like Japan, Kazakhstan, Dennmark etc. are also a part of the same.

The last visit was by PV Narasimha Rao in the year 1992 soon after Liberalization, Globalization & Privatization policy was announced. India's first embassy to Spain was opened in 1965, the relations started to formalize since that phase of time. The nature of relations between the country is based more upon economy however, shared values such as human rights, culture & democracy are important building blocks of bilateral relations between both the countries.  

India shares a human rights centric view on the conflicts in Basque & Catalonia, Spain was one of the many countries which actively backed the abrogation of Article 370 & also visited Jammu-Kashmir in the year 2023 to study opportunities for film tourism as well. The political relations also extend to forums where India & Spain are members, India-Spain are members of multiple forums like G-20, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, United Nations,  Global Biofuel Alliance, World Trade Organization, ASEM to name a few. 

Though there are differences in opinion in the Russia-Ukraine war with Spain backing Ukraine in terms of millitary engagements with billions flowing into aid, India has called for descalation of war & hasnt contributed to the war in any direct way possible. In fact, it was due to Narendra Modiji's  active intervention that didnt result in a nuclear war as was acknowledged by CIA chief's with whom the Spanish enjoy a very close relation.

India & Spain Roundtable conference was also conducted in the year 2021. The coronavirus crisis also aided in diplomacy between countries when India supplied HCQ tablets to Spain amidst the crisis. India also offered to send the world class Covishield & Covaxin vaccines.

The political engagement has been historically low as both the countries view each other only from a startegic perspective instead of having a holistic view over the relations, it can be seen that both countries if given enough time can develop political relations over the next few years as the Iberian peninsula is an important region which can secure India's economy, energy & security needs.

Trade relations:

International Trade is a major discussion point when it comes to diplomacy & geopolitics. Many of the events of the world like the Opium Wars, colonialization of a few countries in North America have resulted from resources & trade wars. Many countries pride itself for being part of specific trade routes which has aided them in their economic development since years. In the same vein. India & Spain are one of the largest trade partners for each other in Europe & Asia respectively.

Spain & India have been similar in terms of growth rates even when crisis like Russia-Ukraine war & Coronavirus hit the world, Spain had a growth rate of 5.5% in year 2021 though it reduced steeply to around 1% in the forecast year for 2022, on the other side Indian economy in the last 3 years has been growing at around 7-8% & has 0% probability to go into recession which is very opposite to the Spainiards, hence given the kind of economic issues that Spain is facing right now, it becomes imperative for them to improve bilateral ties in order to get more exports which will spur aggregate demand which will increase investments as well. The economic structures of both the countries are in stark contrast with India being more or less equitable distribution across multiple sectors, whereas the other 

Spanish empire during its peak also used to be a major producer of gold & silver bullion which led it to not having economic shocks even when the size of other empires vis a vis Britain & France were increasing. This unique quality of Spainiards will help India make a valuable change in today's financial system which is undergoing issues such as lack of credibility of institutions like IMF-World Bank & increasing resentment among the developing countries world towards US dollar. Spain's GDP is 1.7 trillion$ whereas India's GDP is around 3.6 trillion$ both the economies notably are in top 15 of the world's economies. In the last 10 years, Spain's economy is on the downtrend with a reduction of almost 3.74% whereas Indian economy  due to digitalization, strengthened rural economy, infrastructure development to name a few factors has resulted in the Indian economy growing by 74.1% in the same time frame of a decade.

Spain is India's sixth largest trading partner in Europe. The overall bilateral trade is 17.9 billion$ which grew by 21.3% YoY from last year 2021. Indian exports were around 4.7 billion $ for year 2021 whereas Indian imports were around 1.81 billion$ which makes it of its kind trade relations where India is a surplus exporter, with the increasing size of Indian exports basket with schemes like PLI its quite possible that India may export upto 6.5 billion$ worth products to Spain by 2025. The Economic Complexity Score is also an important indicator in this instance as it showcases the ability of economies to produce goods & services which can be exported, it shows the trading abilities of the nations involved. The economic complexity index score of India is 0.61 whereas Spain's economic complexity index score is 0.78. 

The all time high for Indian exports to Spain was 39.17 billion$ & low of 1.71 billion$ way back in 1991. In fact, even in last 5 years since 2018, Indian exports  have risen from 4.56 billion$ to 4.7 billion$ whereas spanish exports is being constant between 1.61 billion $-1.7 billion$ which shows the impact of coronavirus & russia-ukraine war on Spanish economy. The annualized growth in Indian exports roughly in the last 20 years has been of 8.54% which is a decent growth rate for an economy whose average growth rate is around 6%. 

Products of trade between India & Spain: 

Coming to the products traded between the country, India exported refined petroleum worth 190 million$, nitrogen heterocyclic products worth $259 million to name a few. The refined petroleum exports is projected to rise due to the change in maritime routes which has occured recently.On the other hand, Spanish exports included items like prepared pigments whose export worth was around 95 million $, prepared pigments  are a part of dyes, paints etc. with an increase in India's real estate sector & domestic competitors like Berger Paints, Asian Paints producing good profits its most likely possible that the exports of paints from Spain will be projected to rise in the future.  Petroleum gas was exported to India whose value was around $86.9 million which shows the tremendous usage of petroleum gas in India as well.

However shocking enough, the services trade between the countries was not worth a single dollar implying it was 0$ which is a cause of concern which can be milked into opportunity if rightly used. Trade of agricultural products is negligible between countries which can be attributed to the logistical cost of export of perishable items between the countries. A possible reason for this can be the solid USA agricultural exports to Spain & India's own strong agricultural ecosystem.

The export basket of India to Spain is mostly related to products related to metals refinery & textiles. The cummulative percentage value of metals/metals refining export value to Spain is around 25% of the overall exports whereas textiles export worth in percentage terms is around 12.5% which makes 2 sectors extremely dominating for Indian producers which are being traded in Spain. The second section even includes objects like bedspreads, leather shoes, apparel jackets, fashion clothes, cotton sewing thread to name a few. Spain's export basket is very rigid which can be observed that products related directly to metals like refined metals etc. have the lion share of exports of 42%, the other proucts are  recovered paper(4.7%) & diamonds. The trade of automobiles between the countries is also strong with 2.41% of Indian exports to Espana is of automobiles, whereas, 3% of Espana exports to India is of automobiles which makes it a possible sector to focus upon. This is data as of 2021. 

The interesting factor to note however is that India's exports in sector of women apparells has falled from 3.54% in 2018 to around 2.9% in 2021 with a similar fall being registered in refined petroleum however, exports of cyclic hydrocarbons have doubled in the same time frame. Spanish exports products have remained the same which shows the strong output growth registered in these specific sectors in the largest country of Iberian peninsula. Broadcasting equipments is one very unique product whose exports growth in last 5 years has been 17.1% from the Indian side.

Since, investments are also an important part of diplomacy as it provides a platform to interact on issues of mutual interest. Sources like FDI, FII are critical part of any country's balance of payments as they contribute critically to the Capital account part of BoP, the export of services specifically also contribute to the same. Keeping this in mind, there are about 70 countries of India in Spain mainly in the areas of Information Technology, Pharmacueticals, Chemicals & Logistics.India is among the top 30 investors in Spain, this has to increase in order to ensure that inflow value from Spain increases to India.  On the other hand, Espana is the 16th largest investment partner for India with cummulative stock of FDI being 3.72 billion $, there are more than 280 Spanish companies in India the sectors being in sectors of metallurgy, renewable energy, automatics & infrastructure. The states concentrated by Spain in India for investments is in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh & Karnataka whereas for India major investment points in Spain are in Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia & Sevilla.

India & Spain also have a chamber of commerce & Indian businessmen participate routinely in conclaves related to Tourism, Leather show in Madrid, Pharmacueticals, Mobile phones to name a few. India & Spain are only involved in talks related to India-EU FTA which also shows the lack of outreach between both the countries. 

Indian diaspora in Spain is the third largest one, with most of them being concentrated around in regions of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia & Malaga.

Suggestions for improving ties: 

From the above sections its clear that India & Spain both required very focused outreach in order to improve the relations which have been undervalued by the countries. With improving relations with Spain, India can have a foothold in the Iberian Peninsula which has been neglected since many years, the Iberian peninsula is one of the most geopolitically important regions of Europe with 2 major economies being available which directly connects the world to North African countries like Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Western Sahara which will help India in terms of natural resources, culturally, economically & millitarily at large. 

Improving ties with Spain will also help India understand the fundamental society characterstics of countries like Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, Hondouras, Guatemala, Peru, Argentina, Uruguay which all form an important part of the Atlantic,Pacific & Global South at large, it will help because of the reason that the language spoken in these countrues is strictly Spanish only. It will help India advance the great Indian culture in these unchartered territories. It also gives a startegic depth by keeping a check on hostile & colonial countries like UK to name a few.

Spain has a very high per capita income of about 30,000 US$ which also acts as a major market for Indian producers to target in the longer run. Some of the suggestions for improving the ties between the nations can be as follows:  

1. Spain has a space agency named Spanish Space Agency which has been formed very recently in 2023, applying simple economics it means that the Spanish Space Agency would require someone's help in order to improve the overall situation of theirs in the country, India's pride ISRO which landed on the southern part of moon in Chandryaan-3 mission can aid countries such as space to advance their programs, some specific location in India can be used as a base for launching Spanish satellites, in addition, ISRO scientists can train Spanish scientists on the fundamentals of rocket science because Indians are masters in the subject of science. If needed, some satellites of Spain can also be installed in joint missions between the countries. 

2. The defence ties can also be improved. Recently, Spain & India are in talks to improve the defence ties with Spain supplying submarines. Spain has some companies CASA, Astra Unecta & with Government of India's push to become a major defence manufacturing hub some concessions like free tariff zones can be given to them which will generate employment in India at the same time will help Spanish companies to shift from an unstable & rogue terror supporting country like Pakistan. The defence ties must also focus on joint naval & millitary exercises, though there are some exercises conducted between India & EU of which Spain is also a part of. The exercises can concentrate in regions of Iberian peninsula & Bay of Biscay which Spain sees as its influence zone.

3. Indian port companies like Pipavav Ports, Adani Ports & SEZ can invest heavily in spain, though iberian peninsula is known for mountains, the factor that makes ports exciting is the presence of 528 rivers in Spain which can be developed into inland ports by India which would help Spanish people & companies at large. It will also be in accordance with PM Modi's vision of diplomacy with development along with securing startegic interests in the country. Some ports worth investing can be in Barcelona which is the financial capital, Alicante, Malaga to name a few.

4. Services trade between both the countries has to start for which the start can be done with Indian mobile manufacturing companies exporting mobile phones of which India is the largest exporter, which can be followed up with heavy exports of semiconductors produced in India which will add impetus to the greater development of Spanish. E-commerce services of India like Meesho, Myntra, Snapdeal, Zomato, Nykaa, Boat etc. can look to expand in the Spanish market & may be set up offices in Spain for the same. Other service sector industries also need to expand their exports basket to Spain which is at present being dominated by the United States of America & UK. With the higher quality of Indian products it wont be a difficulty for India to expand favourably in Spain. There is also a gap in the spanish market for the same.

5. Agricultural & Allied sector trade between the countries is also close to negligible. The FPOs, dairy cooperatives, Indian Food processing companies can step up exports of rice & vegetable products which act as staple food for the local populace as well. The food inflation of was 2.91% in 2023 which can be reduced if the supplies of rice & wheat is increased at constant proportions. Finished agricultural products can also be sold in Spain with adherence to UNCTAD & WTO norms, subsidy to Indian farmers exporting such items to Spain can also be given so that farmers are also not a loss & Spainiards get the food at low prices. Milk & meat products are also heavily popular in Spain which can be covered with AMUL type cooperatives setting up International food outlets in major cities of Spain along with clubbing it with the local e-commerce websites.

6. The UPIf A, idea of Aadhar(digital identity) can be expanded significantly with the government of Spain which lacks such a kind of system. India can set up a high powered committee whose heads are the PM of India & President of Spain respectively which can help Spain in sectors of e-governance which is low as of date in Spain. 

7. The exports of pharmaceutical products & tele medicine companies also need to expanded significantly to Spain which is low in today's day & time in Spain, whose adoption is low, this will help in development of the medical system in Spain. Public hospitals expansion in Spain by names like Apollo, Zydus, Wockhardt, Aurobindo can be expanded in the near future as well. If required special concessions from India can be provided. Since Spain is one of the major supporters of Yoga, Ayurvedic products can also expand in the less competitive natural medicine market of Spain which is also in high demand.

8. Football is a major talking point in Spain, its national football team is one of them which has a wide fan base in India as well. With the studying of Spanish football clubs, allowing Spanish football clubs to invest in I-League, ISL will also help improve the standards of Indian football massively. The stadiums in Spain are one of the most scenic & have been built with high end technology with best examples being Santiago Bernabeu & Camp Nou, the companies who executed such architectural marvels should team up with AIFF in order to improve all the existing facilities in Indian stadiums. The start can be doen from Mumbai, Bhubaneshwar to name a few. Since, football is also a sport which has political inclinations in Spain with the famous example of General Franco being an active supporter of Real Madrid, the Indian companies like L&T, TCS, HCL, Tech Mahindra, Paras Defence, Jio etc. can start by sponsoring their teams which will lead to visibility of Indian companies. Then may be those football clubs who dont have very strong financial balance sheets can be taken over by Indian giants as well where the operations will be run from Spain itself.

9. Given Indian textiles have a solid market in Spain, it is but natural that special concessions to them can be provided from the Indian side. The chances of success of a dedicated FTA between India & Spain should also be discussed which will boost the bilateral ties further.

10. Unncessary NTMs & NTBs on Spanish exporters should be rationalized in India which will allow India to have a favorable image in the business as well as political class of Spain.

11. Popular Indian films of all industries should be dubbed and produced in Spanish as well which will allow the countries to erase the cultural barriers as well.

12. Spain's education institutions are respected in India there are thousands of Indian students pursuing higher studies in Spain. Under the NEP, respected institutions of Spain can be given land space in cities like Pune-Ahmedabad-Guwahati-Hyderabad- Chennai-Delhi-Lucknow-Chandigarh where Spanish institutions can come up. Similarly, Indian engineering institutions like IITs, IIMs should set up foreign campuses in the picturesque cities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia which will enhance the experience for students.

13. Number of state visits should be increased, a task force for monitoring the relations of India & countries should be set up, and not only the prime minister but other important dignitaries like President of India, VP of India, Lok Sabha speaker should also do official visits to Spain which will help in more conversations between the countries.

14. An invite to BRICS,International Solar Alliance & Global Biofuel Alliance will help India & Spain discuss renewable energy economies which will aid the diplomacy between both the countries from time to time.

Benefits:

1. The major benefit would be in terms of growth in trade as major new avenues will grow. 

2. Boost to space & millitary diplomacy, will make India as one of the go to countries in the developing countries. 

3. Boost to Indian football infrastructure

4. Boost to overall Spanish economy. 

5. Boost to revenue generating sectors of India

6. Diversification of economic exports from India

7.  Boost to career choices of Indian students

8. Cultural economy upliftment

Conclusion: 

To conclude it can be said that India & Spain have got a great chance of upliftment of bilateral ties which will help both the countries significantly from an economic,cultural & millitary standpoint. It will also help both the nations securing startegic interests in each other countries & the so far low engagement can be increased exponentially in the near future, where India aspires to be a Vishwaguru.

Saturday, 12 August 2023

Impact of Oppenheimer's invention on diplomacy: A short summary

The process of nuclear energy. Credits: IAEA website

Introduction: 

From the last 2 weeks, there is one topic that has been discussed across the world which is the movie of Oppenheimer which has broken many box office records in USA as well as in across the world. This article would like to analyse of how the invention of an American scientist named Julius Robert Oppenheimer's invention of an atomic bomb changed the geopolitical narrative of the world altogether and may be forever as well. The scienctific logic of the same was given by the great Albert Einstein with the famous, E=MC^2 formula which went on to become the most important scientific intervention in the global history of geopolitics & diplomacy in addition to warfare.

Diplomacy is the presence of structured communication between nations, with the development of nuclear energy over the years has led to significant changes in the entire system of diplomacy. Nuclear warheads is an important component in millitary nuclear tests, the number 1 country in this segment in Russia with about 6257 nuclear warheads, followed by USA with more than 5000 nuclear warheads. India has about 156 nuclear warheads, as per the website World Population Review report of 2023. 

Nuclear energy process requires inputs of either Uranium, Thorium & Plutonium which is more enriched in nature. The country producing most of Uranium is Kazakshtan, India & Britain respectively for Thorium & Plutonium. The scientific process is complex which can be understood from here & here along with the flow chart attached in the beggining. 

For processing of enriched uranium there is also a requirement of nuclear reactors for which the leader is USA with highest capacity in today's time. With evolution of nuclear energy as an alternative source of green energy to the quickly  depleting oil & gas reserves has led to further usage of the same.

World War 2 & Start of Cold war:

The atom bomb was formulated in 1940s with the then USA president Harry Truman executing it on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima-Nagasaki in 2 separate operations which were named Little Boy & FatMan in the first week of August 1945. Whether the use was required in front of a surrendering Japanese army or whether it was moral/immoral to use nukes in a World War is a question that has many opinions of different people, and as the great John Stuart Mill said that No opinion is false, hence even in this case, there are different opinions on this issue which deserved to be heard in the courts of people or in the courts of history. 

However, after the usage of Nuclear bomb in Japan by USA led to a series of events which perhaps no one estimated for. The usage of nuclear weapons along with the victory posed by the Red Army on Nazi Germany in the Battle of Berlin, opened the floodgates for a cold war which went on to change the fate of 100s of nations cutting across continents for the next 44 years. But if their was one factor that stopped the replica of Hiroshima-Nagasaki nuclear incidents was the presence of nuclear weapons with both the warring factions.

If there is one event that increased the cold war intensity was USSR developing its own nuclear bomb was in the year of 1949, when with the help of apparantly a theoretical physicist working as a Soviet spy in USA due to which USSR was able to make its own nuclear bomb. USSR tested its nuclear bomb on 29 August, 1949. 

This development fructified later during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis where both USA & USSR were dangerously close to a nuclear war due to the adventures of both JFK & Nikita Khuruschev, however, this development gave the world a practically applicable theory of Logic of Detterence meaning which that no country would like to use nuclear weapons on each other as it can have a reply as well for which no dispensation in the world would ever agree to. 

India & Nuclear energy:

However, contrary to belief that after this event the nuclear race would stop it saw several other countries developing its own nuclear weapons including our motherland, India which developed it first in 1974 for peaceful purposes in an operation named Smiling Buddha on which a webseries named as "Rocket Boys" has been launched as well & in 1998 for millitary purposes which invited economic sanctions from USA & a bunch of other countries, however, the sanctions didnt have any impact on India back then, as India witnessed a high growth rate during that phase.

India developed the nuclear weapon because of the reasons such as the 3 on 1 war against India in 1971 war which made the security establishment to develop its own nukes, however, this was also met with its own controversies when back in 1960s Dr. Homi Jehangir Bhabha, Indias leading nuclear physicist passed away in a plane crash with many attributing his death to an external hand. 

But the interesting point to note that, since the development of India's nuclear weapons in 1998 for millitary usage, there was only one war with Pakistan which was won thumpingly by Indian Army with reference to Kargil war in the Dras region of todays Ladakh whereas before the development of nuclear weapon by India there were 5 wars fought between India & Pak(1947, 1965, 1971), India & China(1962, 1967) to name a few which saw a huge amount of collateral damage & loss of human lives  to all sides, its imperative to note that in despite not having a lot of external support in any  of these wars, Indian army defeated these adversaries in each of these wars which saw India giving millitary legends like Field Marshall Sam Bahadur Manekshaw, PVC Capt. Vikram Batra,Baba Harbhajan Singh to name a few of the heroes. Though the context & reasons for this wars were different,Indian Armed forces have always stood up to defend the pride,sovereignity of the world's oldest living(& going strong) civilization.

 Though, the nature of war has changed but definitely the possibility of a conventional warfare has reduced from millitary combats to more forms of hybrid warfare, proxy war to name a few.The development of nuclear bomb by India has also given it more diplomatic heft after 1998 as compared to the first 50 years of Indian independence. Just like how Armed forces are required to maintain national security in every country, in a similar manner for many countries nuclear weapons are a way of maintaining national security as has been the case with India. Its also a moment to recognize the efforts of Indian scientists who have worked hard painstakingly for maintaining India's territorial integrity.

World scenario today:

The rise of nuclear energy as an alternative source of energy to fossil fuels in many European countries like Germany, France & many other economies of the Eurozone has also led to an indirect battle between the countries in many African countries including Niger to name a few, for which some experts also recognize the role of natural resources as well.This also shows that with the rise in nuclear energy there are good chances that those countries which were not neccesarily a theatre of conflict between major powers are also leading to the same. 

Its interesting to note that since the Russia-Ukraine war, the conversations about geopolitics have been centered around energy which is a huge change that has occured in the world of diplomacy, let it be Dr. Jaishankar's replies to Russian oil imports or the OPEC policies, it has changed the narrative of geopolitics which was human rights centric to now economy centric.This is also a welcome move in many ways.

Any debate on nuclear weapons & geopolitics cannot be concluded by talking about NPT which was imposed by a set of a few nations which has turned on to become one of the largest arms control treaty of the world with more than 140 signatories(including 5 nuclear states, who can only keep nuclear weapons), however, how many countries are satisfied with this treaty can be investigated by the researchers using their intelligence & research skills. India has not signed the NPT as it considers it to be partial & unjust.

The IAEA set up in 1959 whose credit is given to Dwight Eissenhower which aims to use atomic energy for peaceful purposes which was also a cold war legacy which formed due to rise in intensity of the same between Eastern bloc led by Soviet Union & the NATO which also had a possibility of usage of nuclear weapons. The IAEA has its own share of controversies like the failure of  prevention of Chernobyl disaster which claimed the lives of lakhs or its inactiveness to prevent more nuclear weapons into the hands of countries which can be said in the hindsight, however, its regional cooperative agreements have been succesfull in the past as well which can present a door to the future. The rise of NSG(Nuclear Suppliers Group) & the related politics has also led to a significant change in the diplomatic discourse of the world with many countries often linking the NSG with its national security.

Conclusion:

Has the world become a peaceful place with more countries having nuclear weapons or not is a question that has to be expounded upon by various stakeholders across the globe. Who is developing nuclear weapons has also become a controversial topic among global leaders with various countries trying to stop the development of such weapons the standout example of which can be seen in the case of NATO operation against Iraq on the question of WMD, or Israel vs Iran or USA-Iran nuclear treaty standoff over this issue on various multilateral forums as well. Though these events deserve more discussion over a range of issues that can be covered under the same, however, the objective of article is to provide a bird's eye view.

Whether, having nuclear weapons or not is a judgement that will be given by history, but,we must note that, nuclear weapons had to be a reality in todays world if not Oppenheimer, some other scientist would have invented the nuclear bomb(many reports say even Nazi Germany was close to develop their nuclear bomb) it could have been developed by capricious beings first which could have a deterimental impact.

Who is amenable/immature depends upon considerations like national security, economic interests, kind of dispensations & the track record of the countries involved in making of such a bomb & for what purposes they are making it, whether for offensive or defensive purposes is a question that must be pondered upon. Nevertheless, this topic of nuclear weapons & WMD will remain a polarizing topic till eternity with different people interepreting it accordance to their values/interests, leading to multiple situations some of which may be good for humanity & some may be bad. 

Just judging on basis of existing evidence in diplomacy, the impact of atomic bomb on our world, it can be said with assurance that Oppenheimer's discovery changed the society forever. 

Wednesday, 5 July 2023

Book review: Power of geography

Image credits: Amazon. com

 The book, Power of Geography authored by Mr. Tim Marshall is the sequel to the bestselling book named Prisoners of Geography. The book has been published by Elliot & Thompson in the year of 2021 ,the book in fact starts off by thanking the generation of Covid. Tim Marshall, is a British journalist who is acclaimed for his work on geopolitics. The book is of 325 pages of content with separate sections made up for acknowledgments as well, which is the sign of a very mature researcher.

The book analyses geopolitics from a geographical perspective. The book contains 10 chapters cutting across continents of Asia(special emphasis on West Asia), Europe(Both West & east Europe covered), Africa & Australia have been covered in depth. The extra surprise element is the coverage of Space as a battlefield for geopolitics which is perhaps the most interesting as well as the most futuristic part of the book based on geopolitics. Tim Marshall has covered the countries of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Greece, United Kingdom, Spain, Turkey, Australia, Ethiopia & the geopolitical regions of Sahel along with Space.  

Tim Marshall gives a 360 degree insight into the geopolitical situations of each of these nations in a very explanatory & in depth manner. The book covers the above mentioned countries from a historical point of view which explains their economic development journey along with their geopolitical journey from the time when their history has started to be recorded as well. The book also gives a precise insight into the economic along with the geographical context of the states, it also beautifully linkages the above 2 factors and can also gives a logical explanation why in some countries there have been conflicts between communities or there are regional aspirations existent. The book also gives a detailed version of how the world war 1 & world war 2 have affected these countries/regions at large, for example: The radical Nazis foray into space has also been explained in detail.

Tim Marshall in this book also expounds the  policy making spree in his book in a lot of detail from an unbiased view, the political history of the country with respect to various global events has also been covered in the book in a very convincing manner. For example: Spanish president Franco's domestic policies & NATO entry of Spain in 1980s, Francisco Franco's closeness with USA has also been covered in detail which gives the reader a very good along with basic understanding of how world politics influences the country's choices with respect to its geography, for example: The choice of Turkey to be a NATO member is also expounded in detail with reference to its history along with its geography. The personal experiences of Tim Marshall are also noteworthy. 

The book also beautifully expounds on how sometimes geography is also the cause behind either be a limitations for the economic/territorial ambitions of the country as explained in the case of Spain & the reason why it was never able to extend its empire in Europe as well, the book also focuses on how the local alliances have fared in the country/geopolitical region at large, the example of United Kingdom & its foreign policy of  taking together the smaller powers to counter the larger dominant power is also explained very beautifully even the important point which is often neglected on big stages is of how geography can lead to conflicts between nations is also expounded in a very lucid manner which can help the reader actually visualize of how the  local regional politics of that place works, for example: The example of Ethiopia-Egypt relations & why the 2 countries don't enjoy cordial relations till date is explained with reference to the logic of upstream-downstream country at large. 

The book also finely details the expeditions taken up by the rulers during their course of history & how geography played an important role in all of these expeditions have been explained as well. The book also shows that problems of one area never are limited to that area, it can have spillover effects in multiple parts of the world, which shows the power of interconnectedness of today's world as well. The example of conflict in Sahel & its spillover effect in neighbouring countries of Algeria & even in a far away country like France. The book also conveys a subtle message of how colonialism changed the politics along with economics of all these regions for a very long time period to come for, the example of Australia is the best example that has been explained in a very unbiased manner in the book. 

The book also covers the rise of terrorism among a host of cultural/socially polarizing issues in these regions which can have a very huge impact on maintaining status quo in these regions, for example: The conflict  of identity between the Kurds & non-Kurdish population of Turkey has also been explained, along with its potential challenges in the future for the country at large, the history of such social conflicts with reference to religious identity, ethnic identity, economic issues & even geography as well. The book also has explained the policymaking process in these regions which makes it as a unique reference point for those people interested in international relations or national security or diplomacy at large. 

The policies of prominent rulers in each of these regions like Kemal Ataturk in Turkey, Queen Elizabeth in UK, Franco in Spain, Abiy Ahmed policy with Eritrea, Ayatollah Khomineni in Iran, Bin-Salman family in Saudi Arabia makes a great value addition to the knowledge base of the readers as well. The book also covers the geopolitical influence of the major powers on the local politics of these nations, for example: The influence of USA as a global power has been beautifully explained in the politics and the societal transformation that Iran has undergone in its journey as an independent nation roughly in the last 80 years. The book has also been written in a way that the reader gets at least a bird view insight of the politics that takes place in each of these politically significant areas. 

The book is also written in a very lucid, simple, easy to understand language. The book also has attached important maps that will definitely make the reader understand the context of the chapters that have been authored as well. The book also gives a futuristic comments of Tim Marshall which are mainly very precise along with adopting an approach of measured pessimism which is bound to happen when anyone is authoring a book on geopolitics. 

The book has brilliantly reinforced the importance of geography in GEO-Politics which will be helpful for all people in the long run. All in All, the book is a must read for diplomats, policymakers, students, professors, analysts, defense personnel & economic experts, which shows us that all the fields of millitary-economy are interconnected with geography deciding the major moves that the country takes in its growth story. 

Overall, the main takeaway is that if geography is a challenger, its also a harbinger of opportunities & it always depends upon the will power & dedication of the people of the country on how to make their country a leading player in geopolitics in both the short run as well as the long run.


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