Can The Elephant & Dragon Dance In Unison - An International Open Economy Perspective

Source - Economic Times

India and China are the 2 largest economies of Asia today. While China is the largest economy of the world in terms of PPP terms, whereas India has consistently remained the world's fastest growing economy over the past half a decade, this is huge in the context as both of the countries have also been impacted by various geopolitical shocks namely - Galwan clash of 2020, political instability in South Asia, return of pre Abrahamic accord conflicts in West Asia, Russia - Ukraine war and the biggest economic disruptor the coronavirus pandemic. Despite these shocks, both India & China have recorded decent growth rates, except for 1 financial year where China's growth rate  plumetted it has otherwise, maintained a very steady annual growth figures.

The same can be said even about India, which has recorded impressive growth rates by following a different mix of supply side economics in 2021 & 2022, where government's capital expenditure helped the economy in a massive manner. Since, 2023 Q3, its a well known factor that, India has grown on the back of consumption expenditure, which is also seen in the fourth graph.

GDP annual growth (% of GDP) - Graph 1 (WDI, World Bank)

The 2 countries have achieved these consistent economic numbers despite not having anywhere near to normal political relations from the past half a decade, which shows that there are some inherent structural strengths in the economies of both the countries. The 2 countries, over the past few months have also shown signs of re-starting & normalizing the relations between them with steps like - resuming direct flight services  and the much publicized RIC meeting. While on the outset, it may seem as a political realignment, due to the pressure of Donald Trump via his tariffs or is this realignment a case built due to international open economics is what this article tries to explore.

The FDI conundrum-

While trade is undoubtedly the most critical factor that single handedly determines the direction of open economy & monetary policy, another important factor that determines the direction is the financial & capital accounts of the countries. One of the most important components of the financial account for emerging economies like India is the Foreign Direct Investment. Now, foreign direct investment is categorized as a long term control with greater than 10% ownership, while FDIs are shown in the debits section of a central bank's balance sheet, but its a known fact, that it translates into economic benefits like - higher investments, higher growth and access to foreign capital. Both India and China, have also reported higher growth rates since their post reforms era which has primarily been due to the foreign capital influence in these 2 countries.

This makes, FDI inflows as a critical component for the GDP of these 2 countries, the graph below shows the FDI inflows as a net% of GDP, it can be seen, that, since 2022 onwards due to sluggish economic growth across the globe, the net inflows as a % of GDP has fallen to less than 1% GDP in FY 2024 in India & China. This trend is not healthy for either of the countries, which has a good number of established foreign firms in their respective countries, stagnation of FDI in these countries can stagnate long term FDI inflows in both the countries, which is not a good sign as it leads to something called as consumption smoothing and possibly stagflation, if this trend continues. It may be possible, that to arrest the decline of FDI inflows as net% of GDP was a major reason, why India & China are pushing for a normalization of ties.

Furthermore, it is interesting to see from which countries do both the Asian giants recieve their FDIs. The second infographic provides interesting insights, now while China is a big investor in different countries courtesy the CPEC & OBOR initiative, it still needs access to global capital markets. In case of India, the countries making the FDI investments are diversified, which are mainly coming from Singapore (27%), Mauritius (17%), USA (10%), Netherlands(8%), UK(6%), UAE (7%) & Japan (5%).

On the other hand, China recieves its FDI investments, mainly from the financial center countries. For the unintiated, financial center countries are defined as those, which serve as critical hubs for international banking, investment and other allied fiscal sectors. China has its, FDI majorly coming in from these countries namely - Hong Kong & Virgina Islands, contributing to 75% of total FDI inflows.

Now on the outset, investments from financial centers is what many countries desire for, as they work with little to no legal regulation, but these investments also have their own drawbacks such as - high capital mobility which is volatile in nature. Using simple, IS-LM-BP model, what technically happens from investments from the financial centers is that, it causes short term output fluctuations and it ends up making capital flows dominate the exchange rate market dynamics, which is very risky for an emerging economy.

Furthermore, since the financial centers work with almost little to no regulation from the monetary policy banks of their respective countries, it makes them suspectible to interest hikes from the central banks of other economies. This also can have profound impacts on the emerging economies like China - a hike in interest rates from USA's fed, increases the cost of capital outflow from the financial center (say Hong Kong), which in turn pushes the Chinese central bank to rise the interest rates in order to keep inflation under check, as the financial center ends up investing more in a country which has lower interest rates as compared to that of a bigger economy.

This can lead to exchange rate appreciation in the short run, but it ends up impacting the competitiveness of a country's exports. Furthermore, since financial centers dont have a strong regulatory authority, the reactions of capital management in these countries are highly procyclical meaning, that during global downturns these countries struggle in making/recieving investments. This phenomenon at least explains as to why the net FDI inflows of both countries have fallen massively post pandemic.

This overdependence by China more specifically on the financial centers for FDIs can also be considered as a amjor reason, of why China and India are pushing for some degree of normalisation in the bilateral relations, as both India & China have relatively strong central banks.

Hence, when said from the perspective of FDI & financial account flows, it can be said that, in the face of the latest tariffs, the dance between elephant & dragon is imperative, at least for some years. Now, since FDI is also a part of investment component for the country, it is even more imperative that the foreign capital flows are more or less stable, which can keep the production linked economy stable.

The FDI sources for India - Diagram 1 (PHDCCI)

FDI sources for China - Diagram 2

FDI Inflows (net % of GDP) - Graph 2 (WDI Indicators, World Bank)

Trade & Consumption Smoothing Dynamics -

The second big international open economy concept that may influence the behaviour of both the countries can actually be the trade related consumption smoothing, which is very normal in international open macroeconomic settings. 

Now in both countries, trade is a very critical component of GDP in the past 5 years, India's trade stats as percentage of GDP has remained around 40%, while India is an import dependent nation courtesy petroleum imports amongst others, whereas for China it has remained around 37% which is also super impressive.

Contrary to popular belief, Indian exports & Chinese exports contribute roughly the equal amount as relative to the GDP, though in terms of absolute value, China trumps India by a large margin. Now from graph 3 and graph 4, it can be seen that, for both India & China is exceptionally important while contributing to its economy.

However, its the graph 5 which may have nudged India & China to relook the hardened economic stances against one another, as that graph pertains to consumption which is one of the most critical components of GDP growth. While for India, final consumption expenditure growth has remained constant around 70% over past 4 years, mainly driven by government investment, China's FCE has taken a hit due to the pandemic.

China's FCE has remained constant at around 50% and has shown signs of recovery only since the FY 2023, which means that China intends to continue to push its people to consume more so that using simple basic Keynesian economics, the growth rates can be kept intact. 

For India, consumption expenditure tends to be historically high in terms of open macroeconomics as its a majorly import dependent country having a very young population, whereas China is sort of a old country with more importance over exports.

This can be a prime reason, why, China has restarted direct flights to India which can have a positive impact on the final consumption expenditure. This is even more important now, as due to the Trump tariffs and the constant interest rate cuts by different countries in order to prevent consumption smoothing which can push the growth rates down.

For the unstarted, consumption smoothing is a process opted by countries to maintain stable consumption patterns in the macroeconomic structure, so that the living standards in the country dont drop drastically during the depression phases or dont rise exponentially during . Now, on the backdrop of Trump tariffs and other geopolitical shocks as covered in the first paragraph, it is quite possible, that the recent reforms in India like the IT rate cuts, GST slab rate changes are done in order to keep the consumption patterns stable, which otherwise can run the risk of getting volatile, which is not a good news for any emerging economies. Not managing consumption properly can also have devastating affects on the exchange rates, which both India & China wont like to risk at a time when they can actually ending up as winners due to the various trade regulations coming up.

Also given, that both countries are highly tariffed at this time by the USA, which has an impact on the exchange rates & the resulting consumption smoothing phenomenon, it is very important for both of them to increase their trade with BRICS+ nations and with the ASEAN bloc, which can help them smooth the consumption dynamics till a new equilibrium is found with the Trumpian tariffs and the upcoming CBAM regulations. 

Trade as % of  GDP - Graph 3 (WDI Indicators, World Bank)

Exports of goods & services(as % of GDP) - Graph 4 (WDI indicators, World Bank)

Final Consumption Expenditure (as % of GDP) - Graph 5 (WDI indicators, World Bank)

Way Forward -

This is a new & sort of a unfamiliar geoeconomic territory for both the countries. Both India & China, had  huge trade & FDI relations, from 2000-2017 years which was primarily due to multiple reasons like no border clashes, India's MSME sector was very weak in this timeframe which made India a net importer of cheap manufactured goods and the geoeconomic scenario of the world was much more stable with the only major events in this decade being of the 2008 financial crisis which both countries were able to manage well.

But, now, the scenarios are very different, Indian economy is more stronger which can be seen in various indicators like the innovation index, trade volumes & a much stronger MSME, heavy & sunrise sectors which makes the ball game very different. India & China are also now major competitors in various sectors, while are also collaborating in various other areas. Also, geopolitically India is much stronger in today's time and the world is a more unstable place due to the various factors as listed in the first paragraph.

Since, the timeframes are drastically different now, it makes sense for both India & China to start economically cooperating in certain areas which can be of great help to the Asian continent. But, it is imperative for India to make sure that the reforms related to economy dont stop and that this time the cooperation with China doesnt end up compromising India's national economic interest which happened due to RCEP for many years. The way is not certainly easy but it can change the power dynamics if both of these asian giants collaborate and  take the other smaller countries of the world together in a non-confrontational manner.

Is It Time For Indian Manufacturing To Rise In The Face Of Geoeconomic Tensions :- An Economic Analysis

Image courtesy- ETBFSI

Introduction -

Over the past few months, the psyche of Indian consumers, producers and other economic agents has been captured by what many in the world call as "Trump Tariffs". The Trump tariffs and the quick fall in the otherwise stable relations between India and USA and more specifically the reckless statements made by Trump's economic advisor Peter Navarro has led India to explore other avenues of cooperation in the world. Compounding the problems between India and the USA, the 50% trump tariffs along with the one time processing fee on new H1B visas, have renewed calls between Indians to geo-economically diversify away from the USA. 

It was in this backdrop that the visit of Indian PM Narendra Modi to Tianjin for the SCO summit and a possible revival of the RIC grouping sent shockwaves amongst the broader diplomatic community of the world. These events coupled with the meetings of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Japanese, Singaporean & Phillipines presidents over the past 3-4 months, has set rumor mills buzzing about the possible alignments in India's geopolitical space. While many economists, diplomats & politicians have suggested reforms for service & trade sector, the manufacturing sector which can be a possible protagonist in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainities, has featured sparsely in conversations.

Is It A New Trend ? 

While in the hindsight it can be said that, this is a new trend in Indian foreign policy of moving away from USA, it must be noted that, this is a process that has been ongoing from many years. India and the USA over the years have sparred publicly over contentious issues like that of - Indian farm laws, India - Russia ties, involvement of "deep state" in Indian electoral politics, amongst others have led to a rise in tensions. While, the tensions have not translated into loss of bilateral trade between the 2 countries, it has resulted in calls for swadeshi in India.

India negotiating for separate FTAs with countries like UAE, Australia, EU, Switzerland, Leichenstein and United Kingdom have all pointed to a policy of India diversifying away from the USA. The diversification policy from the USA also makes sense, because of 3 major reasons - One, USA is India's lagest trading partner which makes it risky in a world where, the USA is increasingly taking tough measures due to its domestic political compulsions. Second, almost 50% of FIIs in Indian share markets are coming from the USA which again opens up a weak spot for the Indian markets in the longer run which increases chances of capital flight and finally, it is in India's interest to diversify away from the USA to more greener pastures like - European Union, West Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa, which offer a stable geo-political environment & where India is likely to benefit by virtue of it being the bigger economy.

Possible Effects On Indian Economy - Manufacturing The Protagonist

Source - World Bank

The effects of such steps and FTAs are immense on the economy. The FTAs signed recently by India in the backdrop of the tumultous state of global politics, can be seen as a good step which will increase Indian options, but, since the FTAs have been signed very recently, how exactly will these FTAs materialise is still a big question that needs to be addressed. The other possible effect to what the Indian policymakers are looking is perhaps the path of reforms, which can actually unleash the Indian economic potential. The good thing for India is that, despite the structural challenges in its economy like:- low agricultural productivity per worker, the GDP numbers have remained strong over the past 3 quarters, which can push the policymakers to introduce more reforms. In this case, the shift from supply side economics to demand side economics in budget 2025 , via reforms like - GST slab rationalisation, IT reforms and a renewed push for manufacturing, can actually end up helping the Indian economy in the short run, till the above mentioned FTAs can start showing effect.

Source - Lukmaan IAS

However, more needs to be done, India needs to urgently, look at increasing the manufacturing ecosystem of tier-2 & 3 cities, which can be the next growth engines of Indian economy. India's PMI numbers of 63.2 in August was the highest in 17 years, but more needs to be done in this sector. Even today, agriculture is employing almost 60% of Indian workforce which is genuinely not a good indicator as agriculture incomes tend to be usually less than that of the manufacturing sector, which does not lead to expanding the Keynesian based demand economics.

Labor force participation in India

With close to 80% literacy rate, India definitely has the push to employ at least semi-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector which can improve the per capita productivity of India's agriculture sector as well. The scheme announced in the Union Budget about, developing India's periphery cities should be focused on manufacturing sector, where more incentives are given to industries such as - textiles, dairy processing, agro processing and heavy industry sectors like machine tools, semiconductors, heavy electrical & automotive industries can benefit from the disguised unemployment that is prevalent in the laggard agricultural sector of India. At present as of 2025, manufacturing contributes just 15% to the Indian economy, which is also a major reason why India's trade in goods with countries such as China has stayed limited over the years, with India often not enjoying a trade surplus with them.

The National Manufacturing Mission was supposed to make manufacturing contribute to 25% of Indian economy by 2025, which is still very much behind that today's projections. In order to get the reforms successful, the focus has to increase over this sector so that, the country records an excess of 10% growth rate in the upcoming fiscal years. In this case, even the role of state policies becomes very critical, as argued by the author in a previous policy article on bringing back SEZs and EEZs in Indian economy, this is a reform that must be carried out by the states & the center in the mid economy states like - Odisha, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan, Haryana and Assam,which can benefit from the renewed push towards manufacturing. This is something that even PM Narendra Modi indicated in his speech yesterday. The country must also look into reforming the successful - Startup India & Standup India policies in a way that boosts manufacturing sector of the country in the longer run.

Furthermore, even the history of international economics has pointed that - geopolitical strength of countries have increased only when they had massive manufacturing, in fact the major reason why British enjoyed a massive empire was because of the Manchester mill innovation that occured in the 1800s. Even ideologies of Karl Marx, along with a host of other economists in that era came in primarily because of the push towards manufacturing that was existent in the European countries back then. Though, the state of economies have changed in the world, but, still the manufacturing sector is any country's best bet to translate short term gains into long term victories. The other reason why manufacturing sector can be a sunrise sector is primarily because that there are very few evidences in the world, where due to geoeconomic tensions manufacturing sector as a whole has been affected. 

Conclusion-

Furthermore, India must also rethink about the status of the current trade deal negotiation with the USA today. USA is undoubtedly a very critical partner for India, but, whether India should go for a FTA or whether it must revert to a PTA on select products, as advised by the author in the previous blog, is something that the Indian economists should seriously consider.

Tamil Nadu Politics - Analysing The Basics of Electoral Complexities

Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Map

Introduction -

Tamil Nadu is perhaps one state in India, which has got a lot of sterotype, even in the evolution of digital era. Its a state that has still not got out of it being an Anti Hindi image in the other parts of the country. Part of this reason is the kind of politics that has been practiced in the state of Tamil Nadu. What started off as a protest by the then, Dravida Kazhagam(today's DMK) against the 1965 NEP introduced by then Congress government, which mandated a 2 language policy across government schools, morphed into a massive Dravidian movement. The Dravidian movement has essentially made caste & language as the core issues of the state, with more emphasis being on the former. 

Additionally, in 1967, India & Tamil Nadu were undergoing major political transitions. It was being governed by the Congress party, which had a lot of infightings between the syndicate & indicate group, which led to the split in the party at the national level. The party had governed, the state for 15 years and it is very normal, in the course of Indian politics that fatigue factor does set in after 2 consecutive terms. Additionally, 1967 elections are called as the first political earthquake of India, where INC failed to win a 2/3rd majority and lost power in 9 big states back then. These ramifications had a long lasting impact on Tamil Nadu politics. This proves that the dravidian majors, though harp on linguistic divisions to further their political agenda, but they do ally with the so called "Hindi heartland" parties, so that, it suits their politics. This has paid them off in the past and will continue to do so in the past.

Brief Electoral Political History & The Value of Cadre  :-

The state of Tamil Nadu has had a very unique history and additionally, has had an even more unique role in the national politics of India. It is one of those states, which has constantly stood against, what it viewed as "infringement" on the federal structure, but has never shied away from sharing power with the national parties. Let it be, the DMK supporting Congress during UPA era or AIADMK siding with BJP during different phases or  AIADMK+Congress combine in 1991 elections or the DMK & BJP aligning in 1998. It has been one state, where the 2 major parties during the times of Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, definitely followed a more pragmatic style of politics, which allowed the state to develop at a rapid rate during the turbulent 1990s and 2000s. 

The growth rates of Tamil Nadu, in this era was consistently above the national average, which made the state as a thriving hub of industrial development. Even today, if the state of Tamil Nadu (since last 57) has been electing the alliances led by DMK & AIADMK, its primarily because of the growth rates that the state has produced. This has to be the starting point from where any political analysis should actually begin, as many a times its the economic factors that tend to influence political behaviours in India. Along with pragmatic politics, also, the Indian constitution on federalism makes the 2 regional parties align with either of the national parties.

In this manner, it must be understood, that by allying with the central governments, the state has produced decent growth rates in the past. Graph - 1 depicts, ruling parties and the number of seats they have won. Additionally, the almost alternate nature of either AIADMK winning or DMK winning the state, shows that TN is a high anti incumbency state.

Ruling Party & The Number of Seats won

Coming to the main players, for most watchers of TN politics, the main players would be limited to DMK & AIADMK. This is true to a large extent, as only these 2 parties have had their chief ministers in the past 58 years, with no other party ever getting to even make their deputy CM in the state. Additionally, both of these parties have sparred over the handling of contentious issues in their electoral history which does make both of them arch rivals. In fact, the AIADMK was formed after the friendship of M Karunanidhi broke up with film star MG Ramachandran, who then went on to become a very successful CM in the state, where party was formed in 1977.

An interesting fact associated with both these parties, has been that, they were able to wipe out the Congress party from the state's political landscape by 1991, which is why now the INC has been relegated to a small player in the state politics.In fact, the Congress has been allying with either of the parties as a junior partner since many decades now, though since 2004, it has remained steadfastly loyal towards DMK. Graph - 2 depicts vote share of AIADMK, Congress & DMK in state legislative elections since 1977. Additionally, it can be seen, that  the meltdown of Congress due to organisational factors, has directly turned into a net-net benefit for DMK & AIADMK. It means, that leaving a few core voters of the Congress, they have not been able to get a lot of new voters in the state.

Vote Shares of AIADMK/DMK/Congress since 1977

This independent cadre and the caste coalition strengths of DMK & AIADMK, is the prime reason that despite the passing away of Jayalalithaa in 2016 & M. Karunanidhi in 2018, these parties have won the lion share of seats in the state and its immensely difficult to expect a Congress type meltdown for any of the 2 parties. Furthemore, the almost static nature of the parties(as shown in the graph) to get their cadre votes and a bigger pool of voters connected to them from decades, is the reason, why these parties will be relevant in some form or the other in the state.

The Value of the 2 leaves symbol for AIADMK

The survival of AIADMK after the happenings of 2016, where there was a split in the party, between VK Sasikala and her former protege turned antagonist Edapaddi Palaniswamy, is worth studying for students of political science. AIADMK historically has been a leadership dependent party with a strong cadre base. The party's history is an exceptionally unique, one, as the AIADMK has seen splits and legal tussles over the 2 leaves symbol. The first split occured in 1989 when T. Janaki(W/o late MGR) and Jayalalithaa, had a legal tussle over the 2 leaves symbol, which ended in favor of the latter. Prime reason being - Jayalalithaa's faction polled 22% votes in total & AIADMK polled 9% votes in the 1991 election. 

The second split occured in 2016-18, where Edapaddi Palaniswamy and TTV Dinakaran(nephew of VK Sasikala) had a legal tussle over the symbol, which was won by the EPS group. The end result, in both these elections were quite the same, where the DMK ended up winning & the faction without the 2 leaves symbol struggled. This shows, that despite a strong leadership, the AIADMK cadre does depend on the 2 leaves symbol to win its core voters & swing voters to win elections in the state. This proves that the visibility of the party is very important in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Graph - 3 proves 2 things - (A) The popularity that Jayalalithaa enjoyed. (B) Now the AIADMK may have transitioned into a cadre based party over a leadership based party. (C) Given, Edapaddi Palaniswamy has been able to almost entirely maintain the vote share of AIADMK despite the split in 2018, it means that, he is definitely popular amongst his supporters.

AIADMK vote shares in splits

In the graph here, one factor that has not been covered is the former CM, O. Paneerselvam, who has served multiple tenures as a stop - gap CM since AIADMK's foundation. Since, he is in a legal tussle right now with AIADMK supremo EPS, how many cadre votes does he have, will be known only in 2026 election, though he is still a part of the NDA as of now. The DMK on the other hand, has never faced any succession questions, as its a party that has a lot of political capital dependent on the Karunanidhi family who can control the DMK cadres. The reason why the AIADMK has struggled whenever it has splitted and the power has transitioned to the DMK, is because, their core voters either go to vote for the DMK or they vote for the split faction. This is something that is consistent, with what we covered in the probabilistic voting theory & MPVT.

Why BJP becomes critical - 

The second national party, in this case has been the BJP, it has allied with both state parties, but has had an aspiration to fight and has tried to grow on its own strength since many years now. It formed the NDA in 2014 & 2024, sans AIADMK or DMK. Though, the BJP won only 1 seat out of 39 in both these  elections, it was able to still poll around 11% votes in 2024 & 3% votes in 2014. However, since these were national elections, the BJP has polled even lesser votes in the Vidhan Sabha elections, primarily as it lacks the candidates & the cadre to grow organically in the state. This has led to the BJP, depending on either AIADMK or DMDK or any other third front party like DMDK of Captain Vijaykanth in 2014. Furthermore, BJP is relatively a very new party in the state, which has had a limited presence over the years. The 2024 lok sabha election was the best ever performance that BJP had in the state on its own strength, this proves that, the efforts of K. Annamalai as the de facto opposition leader from 2021-24(actively) was well recognised by the people. 

However, this existing split in AIADMK between the 3 factions and the presence of PM Narendra Modi in the national politics, makes sure that, BJP becomes the fulcrum point of NDA. The prime reason, being that Narendra Modi is the most popular politician in entire world today and the BJP is the biggest political party in India. Without, Narendra Modi and the BJP, it would be difficult for cadre based politicians like Edapaddi Palaniswamy, TTV Dinakaran & O. Paneerselvam to win elections on their own name. The reason, is that, a cadre based politician will always find it difficult to compete with a politician, who is nationally popular that his party wins in bigger states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat & Madhya Pradesh on his name. The BJP polling 11% in the state 2024 and finishing second place in 12 constituencies with TTV & OPS on their side, is the reason, why the AIADMK had to accept this alliance proposal, as the BJP definitely has some cadre in the state today.

Furthemore, since Indian constitution, mandates, India to be a union of states with a strong central government(even the state's name has to be ratified in Parliament), the BJP becomes by default exceptionally important in the state. Now this can be a main reason, why the DMK keeps on targetting the BJP in terms of narrative issues like NEP or the inactivity of Central government amongst others.

Role of the third front in TN politics -

The third front is perhaps the most unique aspect of the state politics in Tamil Nadu. Over the years, it has been seen that, the whenever there is an emergence of a third front or third major player in TN politics, who has a substantial fanbase or support base, they have polled a lot of votes in such elections. The biggest benefactors have been parties such as NTK by Mr. Seeman, MNM by Kamal Hassan, AIADMK(1977) by MGR and DMDK by Captain Vijaykanth have polled decent number of votes in VS elections. The following graph, shows how many people in TN, do vote for the third front when presented with an opportunity. Cine star Thalapathy Joseph Vijay's TVK has been kept out of this graph, as he is yet to contest an election in the state.

Third front & cine star parties vote

This graph proves 4 things :

1. Initially, the people of TN do vote for the cine star parties but over time, if they align with the dravidian majors, they have tend to lost over their vote shares. Vijaykanth's DMDK is the prime example of the same. DMDK was formed in 2008 as an alternate to both the DMK & ADMK, it ended up polling almost around 8.5 % vote shares, but since then, because, it was not able to keep up its organisation, its vote share has fallen dramatically to almost 2%, which proves again as to why, cadre building in Tamil Nadu is exceptionally critical.

2. MNM of Kamal Hassan is also an example, he contested only 2 elections, 2016 & 2021, saw a rise in vote share but since he lost his own election, he has now effectively called his party to quits. This vote of MNM will most likely transfer to Thalapathy Vijay's TVK in the upcoming 2026 Vidhan Sabha elections. Since, MNM is also a part of UPA as of today.

3. The third party in this entire case is of NTK by Seeman, who is contesting elections consistently as an independent third front. In 2006, he was polling close to 0.5% votes, but his votes have seen a constant & slow rise over past 3 election cycles, implying that, his ultra nationalist Tamil ideology is finding takers in the state. Though, some of these voters maybe more inclined towards the ideology part, but it must be accepted, that Mr. Seeman has built a good enough cadre in the state. This is the prime reason, why experts are predicting, that Thalapthy Vijay's TVK will get a good chunk of NTKs vote share in the state. But, NTK will survive in the state politics, provided they don't align with the dravidian majors.

4. The prime reason, why, cine stars have ventured into TN politics is because of the success that late MG Ramachandran had in the state in 1977. MGR was one of the most popular cine stars of the state back in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. He polled a staggering 40% in the state in 1977 elections.

However, this was due to many factors - (1) The prime opposition Congress, had a big meltdown in the state due to not having local leadership this is something pointed in Graph 2 where vote shares of AIADMK, DMK & Congress are given.(2) MGR had a second rung leadership ready when he had his political debut, which helped his cause even more. (3) MGR was a prominent orator even in the DMK circles of 1967. (4) DMK was battling a 10 year anti incumbency in the state. This is the prime reason, why AIADMK & MGR became relevant in the state. The prime lesson for any cine star flirting with TN politics, is that, they must have a prior background and they must be building over the cadre, along with hoping that, one of the major parties has a massive political meltdown. Also, it proves that, the third front voters in Tamil Nadu are historically those, who have had a negative outlook towards the politics in the state.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Utility of Smaller Political Outfits in the state -

Vote Shares by socio-economics groups - CSDS Lokniti

There is one aspect of politics, that is exceptionally unique to Tamil Nadu politics, which is the presence of caste based outfits & the smaller regional parties in the state.  Now techncially speaking, the major state parties, national parties & even the sub-regional parties have opposed casteism in the state. Even in Tamil media, casteism is looked down upon, but the presence of political parties who get a good chunk of votes from their own castes is exceptionally critical in Tamil Nadu politics. All this with almost a similar voting behaviour by socio-economic groups in the state as attached in the graph in this secion, shows that, caste is one amongst the crucial factors in the state.

The attached tables are about the alliance parties & their current partners. 

Alliance parties and their importance

The alliance partners & caste based outfits like PMK or VCK become exceptionally important in the state, as they have a bunch of core voters who will vote for these small parties any day, additionally, they will vote for the alliance in which their party is an alliance partner of. For example - Take the example of PMK, the core voters & cadres of PMK, voted for BJP in many constituencies in 2024, whereas, in 2021, their votes were transferred to AIADMK. Additionally, in the past, PMK has been a member of DMKs alliance as well, where their voters transferred their votes to either of dravidian parties back then. For starters, PMK is a party that is essentially meant to represent the interests of Vanniyars, their political rise can be traced back to when S. Ramadoss led a protest in 1990s for demanding inclusion of Vanniyars in the OBC quota category. Whereas, the VCK is for representing interests of the Dalit community (majorly Pala dalit community).

The reason, why both the Dravidian majors also cant exclude such parties is primarily due to following reasons:-

(1) Every party in the alliance, will add on their own bunch of core voters, which is critical in a state, where anti incumbency develops very quickly i.e. in 5 years. Additionally, it becomes even more critical in a state, where the 2 parties have to navigate complex caste realities in the state. This pushes the ADMK-DMK to make sure that these parties are included in the alliance.

(2) The presence of these parties becomes even more critical in the state where the cumulative votes polled by ADMK & DMK is around 70%, it implies, the rest 30% voters can actually become the swing voters in the state of Tamil Nadu, a good proportion of whom are a part of the alliances as of now.

Conclusion -

To conclude, the TN politics is more complex that what we may analyse over social media. The presence of other outfits, cadres amongst others is what makes the state politics exceptionally unique and important. Though, this blog does not cover a lot of the other factors in general, but, it has tried to give a different perspective on the politics of TN state. Also, this article has been written at a time when, TN elections are still 1 year away, but the predictions provided in this article, may well turn out to be critical as well. However, predicting politics especially electoral politics in India, is exceptionally difficult as, in politics 1 + 1 is never equal to 2. 

Contenders For India's Vacant Vice President Post

Source - Sarkari tel

On 21 June 2025, India's vice president Jagdeep Dhankar tendered his resignation as the Vice President of India citing health reasons. The resignation was sudden and no one really saw it coming, as the monsoon session of the Parliament had just begun. With his resignation, he became only the third vice president in Indian history after VV Giri & R Venkataraman who resigned in 1970s. With the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankar, a fresh race has begun in the country on who could potentially succeed him as the next VP, as the VP of India is also the chairperson of Rajya Sabha. Additionally, VP also has added responsibilities like having the duty of being India's abroad representative and having a consulting role with the President of India. The post is so critical, that the constitution of India has articles about it from article 63 to 71, which falls under Part 5 of Indian constitution.

Here are the following names who can succeed the outgoing VP Jagdeep Dhankar. Since, the NDA and the ruling BJP have a comfortable majority in the parliament, its common knowledge that the next VP will be from the NDA itself. Also, looking at the track records of the NDA in the past, in relation to the VP election, the BJP during the time of  Narendra Modi & Atal Bihari Vajpayee, have often went ahead with faces who are otherwise popular in the country. The 4 vice presidents of the BJP or the NDA era have been - Shri. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat from Rajasthan who was a popular CM back in 1993-1998, Shri. Jagdeep Dhankar who was popular governor in the politically crucial state of West Bengal and was in media limelight and Shri. Venkaiah Naidu a former National BJP president. The vice presidents picks of NDA have been popular and do enjoy a lot of experience along with the support of the common man, who may not be interested in politics.

Another common theme is that, NDA has usually preferred to pick its VPs from different states and has usually picked Vice presidents, who hail from dominant communities(socio-economic & politically), the above people belong to critical voting blocs like Rajputs, Khammas and Jats, who hold sway in politically important states. This is primarily because the 3 presidential candidates of NDA have been - Shri. APJ Abdul Kalam, Shri. Ram Nath Kovind and incumbent Smt. Droupadi Murmu, who have belonged from the less dominant communities in India. Hence, the probability of NDA continuing its trend of appointing a VP from a dominant community looks highly possible.

Thus in all probabilities, the next Vice President of India must be logically from a dominant community from a politically important state of India.

1. Dr. Harivansh Narayan Singh - Dr. Harivansh is the current Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha, he belongs to the JDU party which is an important constituent of NDA. Dr. Harivansh is an old timer Rajya Sabha MP who has chaired crucial sessions for over the past few years now. He belongs to the Bhumihar community which is dominant in Bihar & Purvanchal and has been a career journalist before transitioning into politics in the older times. Dr. Harivansh is known to be an accessible, affable and a smart politician, who enjoys good ties with PM Narendra Modi.

2. Vasundhara Raje - Vasundhara Raje is perhaps one name which  is not being discussed a lot in the media. She has been a popular and a veteran BJP politician, now actively a member of Indian electoral politics from 1987 onwards. She has been a 2 time Rajasthan CM along with being a former Minister of State during the reign of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999-2004. She comes from the Maratha lineage with a background in Jat and Rajput families, which makes her a very strong contender for the post. Her political experience along with  her being a woman face, a bloc on which PM Modi has tried to constantly nurturesince many years, makes her a strong candidate for this post.

3. Nitish Kumar - Nitish Kumar may end up being one of the darkhorses in the race for the post of Vice President. Its a well known fact that the 9 time CM of Bihar has had Prime Ministerial ambitions from a lot of time, almost since 2009. Nitish Kumar is currently serving as the Bihar CM. Since Nitish Kumar belongs from a Kurmi community(categorized as OBC community) which has influence in, Purvanchal, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Making a tall leader from this community, can actually consolidate votes for the NDA in the upcoming Bihar elections, where the NDA suffered minor setbacks during the Lok Sabha elections, due to the erosion of support from this community. 

Additionally, since the past few elections like in Jharkhand 2024 VS elections or the UP 2024 LS elections, the Kurmi votes have shown signs of drifting away from the BJP, which the BJP would like to consolidate before the next election, one example is the loss of BJP in kurmi dominated seat of Basti/Ambedkar Nagar in UP. Also, having Nitish Kumar as the Vice President, would allow BJP to get its own CM in Bihar, something which many BJP supporters have wanted in the past. Additionally, the Bihar elections 2025 will be a close elections, as the fatigue factor against a 18 year old CM may come into play, which the BJP wont be risking at a time, when they have not won the majority by their own in the Lok Sabha. Furthemore, appointing Nitish Kumar as the VP would make Bihar move into a new generation of politics, where leaders like - Chirag Paswan, Tejasvi Yadav, Prashant Kishore, Nitin Navin, Samrat Choudhary and probably Nishant Kumar, would be critical figures.

4. O. Paneerselvam - O. Paneerselvam also known as OPS can also be a potential contender for the post of Vice President. The reason being that, OPS has served multiple stints as the CM of Tamil Nadu. He is currently locked in a legal tussle with AIADMK supremo EPS over his sacking as the co-coordinator of AIADMK. OPS also belongs from the influential Thevar community and with OPS's appointment  as the Vice President, the BJP would ideally like to reach out to this section of Tamil Nadu voters, who had voted for the NDA sans AIADMK in good numbers in 2024 LS . OPS has also been a politician, who is percieved being close to the central leadership of the BJP. Furthermore, his community is critical swing voter in the Southern Tamil Nadu districts.

Additionally, it would help BJP to rub off the tag of being anti Tamil, which is critical as the state goes to assembly elections next year, with routine anti incumbency on DMK being in play. If the NDA indeeds makes OPS as their Vice President candidate, then, NDA will have a good chance of forming its own government in Tamil Nadu. However, how much probability will that have, also depends on other local factors like the rise of Thalapathy Vijay's TVK, NTK & the coalition dynamics. Also, making a Vice President candidate from the state of Tamil Nadu, will allow BJP to win over the votes of the DMK, as the DMK wont like to risk itself to be seen as Anti Tamil before the VS elections. Making OPS as the VP face, would also allow BJP to expand more aggressively into the Thevar community, in addition to getting access to some of the cadres of AIADMK who are still loyalists of OPS. This would push, BJP for negotiating harder in the VS elections, another demand something which has been raised by the Sangh Parivar in TN.

5. Other Names - In case, the BJP does not want to continue its tradition of picking up powerful Vice Presidents, or want to change their community composition,some other names can be of Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, P. Sreedharan Pillai, CP Rajashekar, Baby Rani Maurya, Arjun Ram Meghwal amongst others.

At the end of day, within a few days time the country will get a new Vice President and the  Rajya Sabha till then will function under the guidance of the Deputy Chairman. Also, the country would want to see a new Vice President as early as possible, as the country can not risk delaying a political appointment, as it can hurt the investment forecasts, trade forecats and economic forecasts of the country, in the longer run. Also, given the BJP and NDA have a tendency to surprise everyone with their choices, maybe a new Vice President from out of the blue can emerge in the country as well.

Understanding The Basics Of Karnataka's Electoral Politics From The Prism Of Economic Electoral Theories

Credits - Pintrest

The Basics Of Probabilistic Voting Theory -

The probabilistic voting theory is one of the cornerstones of microeconomic theory of political economy.The probabilistic voting theory is actually one of the closest theories that comes to explaining electoral politics. The MPVT says that, voters don't always choose the closest candidate, where their choices are affected by biases. Biases, information gaps, charisma, group allegiance, etc. all influence their decisions.This results in a continuous, smooth vote function for each party (instead of sharp cutoffs). In contrast to the sharp equilibria in deterministic models, this results in the existence and uniqueness of equilibria in numerous models. This can be accessed here, along with explanations. 

To put it in absolutely simple language, in downisian electoral politics model which says, that, voters vote for the party closest to their ideology and probabilistic voting model, which basically says that, voters choose their winning candidates based on factors like - ideology, charisma of a candidate, narratives, anti incumbency to name a few. More on the different electoral voting systems can be found in the images attached below, before we proceed onto the case study. The article will use a very limited version of the entire theories.

Basic comparisions

The implications

One of the biggest critcisms towards economists directed by social scientists is about the lack of application in real life, however,during the course of the article on this blog, it would be very much clear that some aspects of the theory definitely holds true in practice in the case of Karnataka.

Introduction On Karnataka-

Karnataka is a state located in India's south-western region. The land area of the Karnataka state is estimated to be around, 191,792 square kilometers. As per the census of 2011,the state of Karnataka has a population of almost around 6 million and has a population contribution of around 5% to a country like India, which has a massive population of 1.4 billion. The coastline of the state is around 320 km. The census of 2011 actually pointed out to the population distribution to being as the follows. The economic contribution of Karnataka sector wise is - Agriculture(16%), Industry(20%) and Services(64%), which will become a very very crucial factor in analysing the political climate of the state in this particular article. Karnataka's per capita income is at Rs. 3,80,906 and the overall poverty rate of the state is at 20.91% , which play an important role in deciding the outcomes of 28 Lok Sabha seats. Karnataka has a bicameral legislature at the state level which means, the state has a legislative assembly and legislative council. India follows a first past the post system and a parliamentary form of democracy, in which every province contributes some seats.

Understanding Karnataka Politics

The 28 Parliamentary Segments of the state 

The graphs have been attached after 3 paragraphs.

The ruling party of Karnataka, today, is Congress and opposition is BJP ,with the third largest party in the state which has polled around 5-6% votes is the JDS(Janata Dal Secular). There are 28 Lok sabha seats in the state. All the Lok Sabha parliamentary constituencies in Karnataka have 8 vidhan sabha segments in it. The state of Karnataka though has some unique political preferences which make them unique, just like every other Indian state.

In the province or state level election, Congress party in the state has generally won around 38% of the vote share, throughout decades , whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party since its rise in the late 1990s has consistently won around 36% vote share, except the 2013 as shown in graph number 2, for which a prime reason was the tall & respected leader BS Yedyurappa left the BJP and formed the Karnataka Janata Paksha which subsequently merged with BJP in 2014. However, the most interesting factor is that, even before the Modi wave in 2014, from 2004-14, the BJPs vote share in the Lok Sabha elections is consistently hovering between 40-42% in the national level election and the state level election has tended to reduce. 

Now, when, the numbers in vote share are only compared(though its not the gratest of indicators to use in a FPTP system), at the state level elections, Congress has tended to surge ahead while BJP has stayed back, which actually provides a justification as to why BJP-Karnataka has never won a simple majority on its own in the state. However, when the national level figures, have been compared, it can be easily and aptly seen that, Karnataka has always preferred the BJP over the Congress, which is also prevalent in the electoral history of the state, as the BJP has consistently won at least 17 seats out of 28 in the state. Meanwhile, Congress's vote shares have declined in this time frame in the Lok Sabha elections if seen in the first graph.

Swarajya - Congress & JDS Vote Share (Graph 1)

We can see, that Congress party is a major dominant party in Karnataka, with a much consistent vote share in both parliamentary and state elections, which is primarily due to the first movers advantage they had in the 1951-1967 period, the advent of tall leaders like Devaraj Urs, SM Krishna, S. Nijalingappa, Veerendra Patil amongst others led the party during the phase where Congress was mostly the sole ruling party in the center and the leaders bought in different sections of the society, which strengthened them on the ground level. The advent of strongmen leaders continued in the Congress, with the further rise of DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. 

The third party which is completely underrated in most of the analysis is the Janata Dal (Secular) of the former prime minister of India, HD Dewe Gowda. It can be seen, from the first graph that, the JDS is a declining but still a potent force as it polls around 10% vote share in the state. Their criticality can be simply understood by 2 factors of - When, the difference between 2 major parties is not even in double digits any political person with a double digit vote share can flip the results as India follows a FPTP system, which in simple terms says, that anyone who has more votes can win the election in such a case, whose votes is the third party actually taking becomes interesting to see. The second factor, as to why, JDS is important for the state politics can be gauged by the fact that, in 2019, the Congress-JDS combine took on the BJP and in 2024, the JDS-BJP combine took on the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections.  

But, JDS has never contested an assembly election with either of them, as maybe they would be vary of the future existence of their party. The JDS party is a technically a Pan-Karnataka party, but, its majority of the legislators have come from the Old Mysore Region and Central Karnataka which account for almost 100 Vidhan sabha seats out of 228 Vidhan Sabha seats, whereas Lok Sabha seats are almost around 12/28, which makes them critical in the fortunes of the state politics. So, even, JDS is a major powerplayer in the state and even if they are not major players in the national politics, but their fortunes can change a lot of dynamics.

BJPs vote share in the state (Graph-2)

In fact, as per many political observers of India, the fall of JDS in Karnataka and the rise of BJP in Karnataka are correlated, as both of these parties were formed on anti Congress planks. Even, the history of both of these parties are correlated, as, both of them came in from the now defunct Janata Party(merged with the BJP in 2013) which was formed in the aftermath of the emergency imposition by Indira Gandhi in 1975. The Janata Dal Secular, itself is a faction of the various Janata Dal mergers and acquisitions that occured in Karnataka over the years, with the most significant one being the breakaway faction of Janata Dal which merged with the BJP in 1996 which was engineered by former CM Ramakrishna Hegde. The interesting history of JDS can be accessed here.

Basic Takeaways -

The first graph is of the congress-JDS vote share and second graph is of BJPs vote share. 

The overall picture as to how the, electoral voting theories are applicable in Karnataka are based on 3 results -

1. The Downisian Electoral Voting which says, that, people vote on particular ideologies is true in the case, which has been proven via the incredibly consistent vote shares of both the parties.

2. The MPVT which explains people's biases, which explains as to why the extra 3-4% voter prefers BJP over Congress in the Lok Sabha election, some reasons which would be explored under the article.

The Wonderful Tale Of Karavalli Karnataka

1. Karavalli Karnataka : This region of the state has given legends like Rani Abbaka Chowta of Ullal along with being host to some of the biggest Hindu cultural iconic sites in India namely, the Kukke Subramanya Temple, Udupi SriKrishna Temple, Shravanabelagola, Dharmasthala, Hornadu, Shringeri amongst others. In fact, Adi Shankaracharya set up one mattha of Hinduism in Shringeri, which was meant for promotion of Hinduism. Karavalli Karnataka also has a lot of places of Christian, Jaina and Muslim importance like - Rosario Cathedral, Infant Jesus Shrine, Ullal Dargah amongst others. This is called as the coastal belt of Karnataka. 

The coastal belt of Karnataka is called as the most politically charged region of the state. The region has 3 lok sabha seats of - Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi - Chikamaguluru. Currently, all these 3 seats are being represented by Bharatiya Janata Party consistently from the past 3 elections. The major communities in this part are namely, Bunts, Bilavas, Mogaveeras, Vokkaligas, Lingayats, Kurubas, Brahmins, Jains, Muslims & various artisan and fishing communities, amongst others who are also crucial.

The 3 coastal districts of Karnataka

One interesting seat, worth analysing, which fits perfectly in the probabilistic voting theory is of Dakshina Kannada, though every other seat can also satisfy the theory to an extent. Dakshina Kannada has Mangalore city in it, which coincidentally is the second largest contributor to Karnataka's state GSDP, it actually accounts for Rs. 1.25 lakh crore in FY-2023 as per the state economic survey and contributes to 5.5% of the state's GSDP. This urban nature of the seat, is a prime reason, why the Bharatiya Janata Party, has won from this seat, almost consistently since 1989. This also fits right into the given model of probabilistic voting theory.

For starters, Bharatiya Janata Party, before the Modi era of 2014 was called as a majorly urban party in the country, which was also true till an extent for Karnataka, though there is ample number of evidences like BJP winning predominantly rural seats in the state. 

Dakshina Kannada also has a very strong ideological presence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(BJPs ideological mentor) in fact the current Secretary General(Organisation)  of BJP is BL Santosh, who has grown  up from the current RSS system in this particular region. Along with it, the BJP has had a battery of leaders from this seat in the past, which included the former state BJP president of Karnataka BJP Naleen Kumar Kateel, the current MP Captain Brijesh Chowta, former CM DV Sadananda Gowda who have kept the BJP in a dominant position in this place.

The same story can be said about the other 2 seats namely, Uttara Kannada and Udupi Chikamaguluru, in which BJP had leaders like, U. Chittaranjan, Anant Kumar Hegde who have won this seat for BJP very consistently since years.

Hence, it can be said, that probabilistic voting theory is absolutely perfect in the Coastal belt of the state, as candidate loyalty along with ideological base and organisational strengths have influenced the results to be in favour of BJP.

Another factor, that gets, counted in here, is that, the region has given BJP its Member of Parliaments, before other parts of Karnataka started moving towards the BJP in 1999, which was partly due to the Hubli Idgah Maidan Issue and the Ram Janmabhoomi Andolan amongst other factors, which are mentioned above. 

Identity Politics in Karavalli Karnataka :

The coastal belt of Karnataka has a very subtle and a different composition which plays a crucial role in their politics. The caste composition of  these areas is a mixture of various social groups like - the socially dominant Bunts, the Bilava OBC group, Brahmins who have traditionally been BJP supporters. Muslims & multiple obc groups who have traditionally been Congress supporters in the past. 

Though on a general scale in Karnataka, major groups like - Brahmins have supported BJP, Lingayats have supported BJP, Bunts have supported BJP, Left Hand Madiga Dalits have supported BJP, OBC communities like and a good section of Nayaka Valamiki Community(found in Kalyana Karnataka, classified as ST)have supported BJP.

Though, none of the issues in any of these communities are the same and neither is their support completely identical. Panchamashali Lingayats(a sub sect of Lingayats) have agitated against the BJP when a powerful BJP minister from Kalyan Karnataka, named Murgesh Nirani who was sacked from his post in the early 2020s.

The general community matrix of Karnataka, as per NSSO 2015

The coastal belt of Karnataka has also been a hotspot for communal tensions with both the dominant parties blaming each other for the various number of communal instances (like the brutal murders of  Prashant Poojary& Muhammad Fazil, who belonged to Sangh Parivar{BJP} & Congress respectively) have occured in this region.

Along with these issues, there are other issues which impact voter behaviour which are - Tulu language identity, infra decline, economic neglect and lack of preserving the cultural identity of this particular region. All these issues are crucial during narrative building, which becomes part of MPVT.

Also anti-incumbency  onto the candidate in these places is always high, which was seen in the election result of a Vidhan Sabha segment named Puttur seat, where the political sidelining of Arun Putilla(a tulu hindutva activist) by the BJP, ended up contesting as an independent, which  led to the Congress party winning the seat which is otherwise considered a BJP stronghold.

This validates the MPVT theory discussed before and even the Downisian electoral theory which says, that, if an ideologically inclined voter does not get his/her choice of candidate, bias kicks in and they may vote for the other candidate. The case of Puttur where, Mr. Ashok Rai won proves this case. Picture attached below for reference.

Puttur Vidhan Sabha result. The independent candidate who was a ex-BJP leader ended up denting his own party.

However, despite such a polarized state of electoral politics, the Mangalore Port is the 7th largest seaport in India and the port handles 75% of India's cashew & timer exports, along with hosting major companies like Cochin Shipyard, KIOCL and BPCL to name a few, which proves the single peakedness theory true, which says that, despite parties with diverse ideologies coming to power in the state, they would converge to a median level of policy which becomes indifferent to ideologies.

Gender & Nepotism, its link with electoral theories:-

The sex ratio of the Karnataka state is at 973 females per 1000 men,the median in the country was at 943 as per the census 2011 , which partly to an extent shows the impact of the educational & women-oriented  reforms enacted by the Wodeyar Dynasty especially during the reign of Nalawadi Krishnaraja Wodeyar whose reign lasted from 1919-1939, in this case, Karnataka had a headstart where even in 1951 Census whereas, Karnataka's sex ratio was 946.  This author had authored an article on the king which can be accessed here.

As per the census 2011, the urban population in the state of Karnataka is estimated to be around 38% whereas the rural population of the state of almost around 61.33%. The interesting part is that, the rural sex ratio as per the census 2011 is estimated to be around 978 which is significantly higher than their urban sex ratio, this partly explains why, the Karnataka Congress's promise of Gruha Laxmi scheme promising a cash incentive of Rs. 2000 had a major impact on the voting patterns in the more rural regions of Kalyana Karnataka (6 Lok Sabha seats of Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Raichur and Gulbarga) in the 2023 election, where Congress party ended up winning around 61% of the seats on the back of this promise. Also, since the rural poverty in Karnataka is at a whopping 24.63%, this also partly explains why the Gruha Laxmi scheme became a big gamechanger in the state elections. 

This announcement comes in as a bias in the formula seen before which essentially appealed to a particular segment of women in Karnataka. This particular issue is still prevalent in Karnataka, as the former Prime Minister of India and the JDS supremo, HD Dewe Gowda also validated this point in December 2024, in his news byte. Along with the scheme itself landing in multiple troubles with accusations of corruption etc. also flowing in the same from the opposition BJP.

Though, its a very oversimplified analysis, even with respect to Kalyana Karnataka, because during this particular elections other factors like - The Loss of Lingayat votes from BJP, the formation of Gali Janardhan Reddy's(former BJP minister in Karnataka) now defunct Kalyana Karnataka Rajya Paksha, strong local candidates in Congress, demographics favouring the Congress, which again proves that, probabilistic voting theory can actually be possible when all the factors align and can influence results.

It is very interesting to observe that, though, women are economically empowered in Karnataka, but, in the past 4 Lok Sabha(Parliamentary) elections since, 2009, there have been very few elected woman MPs  who have won namely - Shobha Karandlaje(3 time MP, 2 time from Udupi-Chikamagulur and 1 time from Bengaluru North representing BJP), Prabha Mallikarjun (1st time MP),J Shanta (Representing BJP and 1 time MP from Bellary in 2009, she switched over to YSRCP in 2024) and  Priyanka Jarkiholi (Representing Congress and 1 time MP)

The same can be said about the assembly level women leadership, which is limited to leaders like Laxmi Hebbalkar from Congress who is successful in state politics. At least, amongst the woman member of parliaments, it can be seen that these leaders represent 2 diverse groups which are - self made leaders or  relatives of already powerful ministers. The latter is a particular & a peculiar factor in the context of Karnataka politics, which can be seen in the family lineages of multiple top political figures of the state, who are in the age group of 25-50.

Some of the prominent politicians in Karnataka like - Yathindra Siddaramaiah,BY Vijayendra, DK Suresh, Priyank Kharge, Nikhil Kumaraswamy , HD Revanna, Tejasvi Surya, Jarkiholi family & Aravind Bellad amongst others who are leaders from big political families.

The reason, why this phenomenon maybe true in case of Karnataka is because of the high per capita income which actually leads to a lot of expenditure in politics as a politician has a lot of incentive to get the votes of the swing voter in the state. This becomes true even in the case of Karnataka as since the 1990s, the state has never seen an incumbent bounce back to power.

This shows that the role of the swing voter is exceptionally critical in the state of Karnataka, which to an extent captures why a lot of corruption also occurs in the state politics. This particular part is a hunch of the author, which can be critiqued or questioned. Also, another reason why many prominent and high achievers politicians are from families is maybe, because of social reasons like - lifestyle of a politician, seeing the son as the heir apparent to the parent's political legacy, all factors which get captured the other factors of the theory, given in the introduction.

Conclusion

The article tries to capture the essence of Karnataka politics at a very nuanced and data based manner, in a non-partisan manner, as the main agenda of this article is to apply a nuanced economic electoral theory to a situations in real life electoral politics.

This is the prime reason, why the political history of the state cant be covered in a blog article and it is the prime reason why the politics of other regions, the caste based issues, political history of individual leaders, center-state relations etc. have not been covered in detail  in the article by the author. Even a lot of theories have been over-simplified which is not ideal, which is why this series can shall continue on this blog with respect to each and every region cum state of India, which later on maybe extended to domestic politics of other countries.

Disclaimer:-

Any misrepresentation, any misunderstanding, any factual error & any wrong conclusion is strongly regretted.