Seats Which BJP May Contest In TN Elections 2026 - Granular Election Analysis Of Some CVidhan Sabha Constituencies

Source - The Frontline Magazine

This article is a continuation & the final article in the series of Vidhan Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu and the seats which BJP may end up contesting as a part of the NDA alliance inb Tamil Nadu. All the data has been picked up from form B data published by Election Commission of India.

1. Krishnagiri & Tiruppur - Krishnagiri seat is also located in the heart of the Kongu region in Tamil Nadu. This seat was contested by BJP & ADMK separately in the 2024 lok sabha elections. ADMK finished second on this seat with 25% votes, while BJP polled upto 18.5% votes in this constituency. BJPs candidate here was  C. Narasimhan, who was a former MP with Tamil Manila Congress (Mopanar). This lok sabha segment, has 3 ADMK MLAs which again makes, it as a part of alliance "dharma", to ask not for those seats, though BJP may try to ask those in talks with ADMK. 

Hosur, a satellite city located close to Karnataka saw one of the most interesting set of results in the lok sabha elections. BJP polled close to 60,000 votes in this seat, while ADMK followed a close second with around 55,000 votes.  This seat currently has a DMK MLA. The last election was contested by ADMK via its candidate, S. Jyoti who polled around 1.05 lakh votes here, who lost the election to the DMK MLA by a small margin of only 13,000 votes. One reason, why the BJP leadership must demand ADMK to conceede this seat to them, is because, BJP has contested here in 4 elections - 2016,2011,2006 & 2001, on its own strength and has always polled at least 30,000 votes in this seat. Given, Hosur's proximity to Karnataka, maybe, a candidate who can work with the cadres of Karnataka BJP can be given a candidature here. This is a seat, which ADMK may also be willing to conceede because in the 21st century, barring one election, ADMK has never won this seat, though it has raked up impressive performances.

Thalli, another vidhan sabha segment included in the krishnagiri lok sabha segment, is another interesting seat where hectic negotiations can be expected. BJP polled close to 50,000 votes here while, ADMK, polled around 36,000 votes. In 2021, BJPs candidate, Dr. C. Nagesh Kumar contested this seat who ended up polling a respectable 64,415 votes losing to CPI candidate by a margin of 56,000 votes. Given, the cumulative performance of NDA increased on this seat, hence, there maybe a possibility that BJP may contest this seat, furthermore, BJP had its own MLA here back in 2001, where it was not in an alliance with ADMK. Finally, given, this seat is kind of an urban seat, BJP may want to experiment by expanding in TN cities first & then going deeper into the rural hinterlands in areas where its weak. ADMK may not be averse to conceeding this seat, considering ADMK has never had its MLA here, since the party's inception. In fact, the only 2 times, where anti DMK parties have won in this seat is by BJP in 2001 & Janata Party in 1989.

Tiruppur is another seat, which has been BJPs area of focus since a long time now. BJPs padyatra, named En Mann En Makkal of K. Annamalai had concluded in this particular lok sabha segment. This seat currently has 3 ADMK MLAs, while the seat of Gobichettypalyam is vacant after ADMK MLA & current TVK leader, K. Sengottiyan rebelled against the leadership of EPS late in 2025 & joined TVK. Hence, given the fluid dynamics of this seat, BJP at max lay claim to 1 seat where it can probably have its candidate during the election. The performance vidhan sabha wise of BJP here, was quite underwhelming which came in as a surprise to many election observers.

The only seat, where BJP can have a strong claim is in the Tiruppur South seat. This seat was contested by S. Gunashekaran of ADMK, who polled around 70k votes and lost to DMK MLA by only around 5k votes. BJP polled close to 34,000 votes in this seat in 2024 & ADMK polled 35,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat twice but has never polled more than 7k votes, hence, EPS may be averse in allocating this seat to BJP. Furthermore, given the bitter fallout between EPS & KA Sengottiyan, which is expected to translate in Tiruppur lok sabha seat, ADMK cadres would be hyperactive in proving that, it the 2 leaves symbol that gives anyone acceptance over anyone's personal clout.

2. Coimbatore - Coimbatore is the second largest city in Tamil Nadu after Chennai. This is another city, where BJP has performed well historically. BJP has had its own MP here in the aftermath of the 1996 Coimbatore bombings & has contested this seat repeatedly at a lok sabha level since 1996. BJP polled close to 4.5 lakh votes in this constituency, where the candidate was former IPS  & BJP cadre's favorite, K. Annamalai.

He finished second with a 32% vote share, ADMKs young turk, Singai Ramachandran polled around 2.5 lakh votes which was one of the reasons why BJP ended up losing this seat. The vidhan sabha segments falling under this seat, may prompt BJP to ask ADMK to allocate more seats, given, its comparitively better performance. While, ADMK may be expected to cite, alliance dharma here, by quoting that, 5/6 MLAs belong from ADMK. Given, the 4 cornered election of TN this time, with players like UPA, NDA, NTK & Joseph Vijay's TVK all in play, the chances of a "friendly" fight would be very risky for both the alliance partners.

BJP currently has 1 MLA here in the form of Vanathi Srinivasan, who defeated MNM founder  & actor Kamal Hasan in a closely contested fight from the Kovai South constituency. BJP polled 71,000 votes here & BJP is expected to retain this seat in the alliance talks as ADMK polled just 19,000 votes in this constituency. This seat is expected to contested by BJP.

Sulur is another constituency, where alliance talks are expected to be intense. The reason being, BJP polled 75,501 votes while ADMK polled around 52k votes in the LS 2024 elections. Current MLA from this seat is VP Kandasamy, who polled around 1.2 lakh votes here. BJP has contested this seat, very few times in its history,  where in 2016, they polled around 15,000 votes. Additionally, ADMK has always been the most dominant party in this seat, hence, its unlikely that ADMK may yield this seat to BJP.

Kavundanapalayam is a seat, where BJP polled more than 1 lakh votes in the lok sabha elections. ADMK polled just more than 50,000 votes, which strengthens BJPs claim for this seat. The seat is currently held by PRG Arunkumar of ADMK. BJP had contested this seat in 2016 on its own strength & polled around 22,000 votes which is still a respectable number. However, ADMK may find it difficult to yield this seat, only because, ADMK has won the last 3 elections on this seat. Maybe, a middle ground for both parties can be to field an ADMK candidate on BJP symbol, which may inspire BJP cadres to work for the candidate. Furthermore, ADMK can also effectively mobilise its local resources over this seat. Given, this seat is also fairly urban in its outlook, hence, BJP may end up being one of the favourable parties for the middle class voters. However, to win in the Coimbatore district, a rally of PM Narendra Modi & other star campaigners like Devendra Fadnavis, Tejasvi Surya are needed to swing this seat in favour of BJP. BJP may be willing to field one of its senior leaders on this side. Therefore, this is one seat, which BJP may ask vigorosly from ADMK.

Palladam is a seat where BJP polled 76,000 seats while ADMK polled 51,000 votes here in LS 2024 elections. Despite, the LS 2024 being a national election, where ADMK did not campaign massively, ADMKs strong performance on this vidhan sabha segment & the fact that ADMK has held this seat since 2001 onwards, would make ADMK averse from sharing this seat to BJP, whose best performance here was in 2016 where it contested alone & polled 13,000 votes finishing fourth behind MDMK. Hence, this seat for all practical purposes may remain with ADMK.

Coimbatore North, is a seat where BJP polled around 53,000 votes while ADMK polled 29,000 votes. The low gap between the two and again the fact that, this seat has consistently elected ADMK MLAs, may again desist EPS from allocating this seat to BJP. However, BJP must try to convince the ADMK leadership to allocate it one of the two seats of Coimbatore North & Kavundanapalayam, where BJP has had a base & has done decent enough electoral performance in the past.

Singanallur is a rural seat in this lok sabha segment where BJP polled around 64k votes while 31k votes were polled by ADMK. ADMKs MLA here is KR Jayaram. This seat is an anti incumbency seat which means that every election the candidate has to be changed, except for 1 MLA, this seat is notoriously known for changing its MLA every election. BJP last contested this seat in 2016 where it polled around 8% votes, maybe BJP will try to bargain this seat from ADMK, which may not conceede this seat  to BJP. This seat also falls under the belt of influence of ADMK supremo, Edapaddi Palanisamy who would like to prove his mettle in an election which is led by ADMK. However, a change in candidate cannot be ruled out, maybe, BJP can try to give its candidate on ADMK symbol, in order to avoid disappointing its cadres in this seat.

3. Kanyakumari - From the west of TN, the district where BJP has consistently done well over the years, despite all the negative propaganda by UPA is in Kanyakumari district. BJP had its MP in Pon Radhakrishnan here in 2014. Currently, 4/6 seats in this district are held by Congress, one by ADMK & one by BJP. This seat was again contested by both BJP & ADMK in the Lok sabha election. BJP finished second with around 36% vote share, while ADMK put up an abysmal performance & finished fourth with a vote share of just 4% on this seat. Hence, this is one district where the BJP is expected to pocket 

BJP has its MLA in Nagercoil seat where it polled close to 71,000 votes compared to ADMKs 8300 votes. BJPs MLA is MR Gandhi who won this seat last time with a good margin of close to 11,000 votes. Additionally, ADMK has had its MLA only twice here which will again desist EPS from contesting this seat, hence the probability of BJP contesting this seat is really high. BJP may even repeat its candidate on this seat, given that, the MLA has been called as local Kamarajar in media circles here.

Kanniyakumari (VS) - This seat currently has an ADMK MLA. This vidhan sabha seat is the only segment where ADMK polled more than 10,000 votes in the LS 2024 elections, which was less than 16% of the votes polled by BJP who polled up close to 78,000 votes. This seat has been represented majorly by either ADMK or DMK since its inception. BJP did contest here  on its own strength sans alliance in 2016 & 2011, where it did poll a respectable figure of 11% votes here. Given the anti incumbency nature of this seat, where almost no MLA has ever been repeated, hence, it makes sense for the BJP leadership to ask this particular seat from the ADMK leadership. Given, this seat has seen Nadar community leaders as its MLAs majority of the times, hence, BJP may be enthusiastic to field a senior Nadar leader like Pon Radhakrishnan or Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan from this seat, given, that ADMK struggled on this seat sans BJP support, hence it would make sense to do a symbol exchange by sending one of its candidates on the lotus symbol.

Colachel - This seat has a Congress MLA currently. BJP polled close to 60,000 votes here while ADMK polled around 5,000 votes in this seat. The cumulative NDA performance here was more or less the same as in 2021 VS election, where a BJP candidate had contested this seat. Given, BJPs strong performance in the Lok sabha election & the mere fact that, ADMK last had its MLA in 2001, the ADMK leadership may allocate this seat to BJP once more.

Padmanabhapuram- This seat has a DMK MLA currently. Last election was contested by ADMK who polled around 35% votes and lost by close to 23,000 votes. In the lok sabha election, BJP polled 55,000 votes on its own strength, while ADMK polled just 4500 votes. Cumulatively, NDA performance was poorer than the last election. BJP contested this seat in 2016 where it polled around 20% votes which dented ADMKs victory march in Jayalalithaa's last election. In fact, BJPs first MLA in the state, C. Velayudham was from this particular seat itself. Given, BJPs strong performance here persistently and the induction of V. Vijayadharini, maybe BJP leadership would be keen to contest this seat over ADMK. Also, because, ADMK has won this only twice, may make EPS to develop cold feet from contesting this seat once again.

Vilvancode - This seat has a Congress MLA. Last election in 2021, was contested by BJPs VS Nanthini. BJP polled around 35% votes here, after the Congress MLA, Vijayadharini's defection which neccesiated a bypoll, BJP polled around 33% votes while ADMK recieved just 3% votes here. BJP polled around 54,000 votes here while ADMK polled 4200 votes here in the LS 2024 election, roughly same as that polled in byelections or in 2021.This seat has never elected a non Congress or UPA candidate in its history. BJP has contested this seat consistently since 2011, where despite no alliances it has polled consistently more than 25% votes which can be counted as BJPs own cadre votes. This is one seat, which can again see a BJP candidate in fray.

Killiyoor - This seat is also a seat which has consistently elected UPA MLAs in its history. The current MLA is from Congress here. BJP polled 45,000 votes here while ADMK polled 3,000 votes here. Given, how, BJPs position is comparitively strong in this district, ADMK may want to contest this seat to make sure that the cadres work in unity in the election, something which costed the alliance in the last elections. The last election was contested by ADMK who polled around 46,000 votes & given this seat is more of a rural seat, hence, ADMK contesting this seat with its established machinery should not be a major problem for the alliance. Hence, this seat may be contested by ADMK over the BJP. However, given, the nature of this seat which has barely elected a sitting MLA thrice, it may open up the seat to NDA alliance, given Congress has had its MLA over the past 2 elections now, here.

Therefore, there are good chances that, BJP may end up contesting in around 5 out of 6 seats in Kaniyakumari district. This district, would require, BJPs leaders like K. Annamalai or Nainar Nagendran or some English speaking christian leaders, to campaign for it, given that, this district has a good population of Christians as well.

4. Ramanathapuram - This seat is one of the most interesting lok sabha segments in the country. This seat, even had the talks for  a brief time, that, this seat would see Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would contest in the LS 2024 election. This seat hosts the legendary, Shivlingam set up Shri Rama after defeating Lankan king Raavan. This lok sabha seat was allocated to now, DMK leader, O. Panneerselvam who contested surprisingly on an independent jackfruit symbol. This seat also saw interesting tactics adopted as there were many multiple independents with the name Pannerselvam who were fielded. All the MLAs here are of Congress & DMK, which opens up a pandora box kind of situation for the alliance here.

OPS contested this seat as an independent, probably because he wanted to win this election & keep his chances of reclaiming dual leadership post in ADMK open, which did not happen. OPS polled around 31% votes here as an independent without 2 leaves symbol, while ADMK polled around 8% votes here. This does mean, that the ADMK cadres here, consider OPS as their leader. In fact, all the vidhan sabha segments in this segment has either DMK or Congress, while the MP belongs to IUML, which points out to a significant minority population. This opens up a chance unexpectedly here, who may want to contest some seats in this district.  

The fact that this district is called one of the areas under Thevar belt, makes it interesting to see how the seat sharing happens between TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK, ADMK & BJP. BJP contested 2019 elections here with a vote share of 31% with its current state president Nainar Nagendran being the candidate, surprisingly strengthens BJPs claim. This seat would require Thevar leaders like Nainar Nagendran & TTV Dhinakaran really campaign hard for ADMK alliance.

Arathangi - This seat saw OPS poll 41,206 votes while ADMK candidate secured 11,800 votes. BJP has never contested this seat. Last election was contested by ADMK which polled around 31% votes, BJP has contested this seat only in 2011, where it polled around 2200 votes. Even AMMK polled just 2200 votes here, which will see very less chance of ADMK leaving this seat to either of its NDA alliance partners, on which it depends today to bring Mukkalathor Thevar votes. However, if the anti ADMK sentiment in this influential community continues till election, there may be a good chance of ADMK allocating this seat to BJP or AMMK while sending its candidate on their symbol.

Tiruchuli - BJP backed OPS polled around 42,000 votes while ADMK secured 23,000 votes. The last election saw ADMK contest here, with polling around 24% votes, while AMMK polled 4% votes here. BJP contested this seat in 2011 & 2016, where it polled 1000 votes. Given, now, even OPS is not even there in ADMK and has joined DMK formally, the traction amongst ADMK cadres towards him may reduce, which may make EPS averse from giving this seat to BJP. Given, this seats's rural nature, BJP would be averse from disturbing any "caste combinations" that dominate the discussions in rural areas of India, even today.

Paramakudi -  This is the only SC reserved seat in this constituency. BJP contested this seat in 2016, where its Tiruvallur candidate, Pon V. Balaganapathy polled 5% votes, despite a Jayalalithaa wave in the sate. OPS secured around 58,000 votes here while ADMK polled 16,000 votes here which is quite surprising as this seat has been an ADMK stronghold since many years. ADMK lost this seat by a bare margin of around 13,000 votes in the last election. This seat has seen, Mr. Seeman's NTK polled around 10% votes in the last election & given the election rhetoric of Seeman which is anti Dravidian majors, hence, this seat may see strong winds blowing towards NTK as well. Given, all of this factors and the possible induction of Puthiya Tamilagam founder K. Krishnaswamy into the alliance, BJP may well try to convince K. Krishnaswamy to contest here on its symbol here. In this way, BJP can cozy up to the Devendra Kulla Vellalar voters, where BJP has been trying to aggressively expand since 2021 elections.

Tiruvadanai - This seat saw OPS  poll around 62,000 votes while ADMK polled 14,000 votes. ADMK in the last election lost this seat by just 6% votes & this seat saw TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK hold sway where he polled 16% votes, hence any chance of BJP getting this seat is really low. BJP had contested this seat in 2016 where it did poll 6.5% votes, but, this seat may see, some ADMK candidate who is acceptable to AMMK & BJP cadres being fielded by BJP. But, the presence of 2 NDA constituents who saved their deposits, weakens BJPs claim over this seat.

Ramanathapuram (VS) - This seat saw OPS poll 66,000 votes while ADMK polled 15,000 votes. This seat was contested by BJP in the last election which polled around 60,000 votes. This seat is one of those vidhan sabha seats where NDAs cumulative vote share increased by 21,000 votes. This seat may see BJPs candidate for another election as BJP has consistently polled around 10% or more vote share here in 2011 & 2016. ADMKs last MLA was its IT minister, who is currently in jail over rape allegations, hence ADMK would certainly not like to ruin its image, by giving that minister a ticket here. However, ADMKs underwhelming performance here, may force it to reallocate this seat to BJP. AMMK had polled just 3% votes, which weakens their claim over this seat. However, BJP can try out to give this seat to some former OPS loyalist, who can pull votes of his supporters from DMK.

Mudukalathur - This seat saw OPS poll 72,000 votes while  ADMK polled just 18,000 votes. The cumulative votes by current NDA here was more than ADMKs tally of 81,000 in 2021. This seat had seen, AMMK poll around 8% votes in the last election. BJP has contested here but its vote share is just around 2%, which says that, the cadre concentration for BJP is quite weak here. Hence, this seat may again see an ADMK candidate, however, an ADMK candidate who can work well with AMMK is needed in order to swing this seat to NDAs favour.

5. Tirunelvelli - This seat saw a direct contest between BJP & ADMK. This part is also a region where OBC  Thevar community forms a good proportion of population. BJPs candidate here was current state president Nainar Nagendran, who polled 31% votes while ADMK polled just 8% votes. This was one of those seats, where BJP actually decisively pushed ADMK to the third place. This seat has 1 ADMK MLA in Ambasundaram, hence BJP demanding that seat wont make a lot of electoral sense as the BJP cant force a seemingly "senior" partner to allocate it all the seats. The other MLAs in this seat are from UPA, which again gives BJP enough room to negotiate with ADMK.

BJP has its MLA here in Tirunelveli in the form of Nainar Nagendran who would most likely retain this seat again. He polled around 65,000 votes though he did lose around 14,000 votes but that was most likely the cadre vote of ADMK who polled around 14,000 votes here. This means, that he is a strong face of BJP over this seat. He may contest here again as a BJP candidate.

Alangulam-  This seat is currently represented by ADMK rebel MLA Manoj Pandian, who won this seat with a slender margin of around 2,000 votes last time. BJPs Nainar Nagendran polled around 56,000 votes while ADMK polled 22,000 votes here. BJP has contested this seat in 2016, where i t polled around 2% votes, hence BJPs cadre strength may not ideally demand this seat to be allocated to it. In last election, an independent A. Hari Nadar had polled around 19% votes here, if BJP manages to do something with such a controversial MLA,  then only there is a chance that ADMK may allocate this seat to BJP. However, BJP contesting this seat probability is low because, ADMK cadre  & EPS would be enthusiastic to prove that they have not lost a lot with the defection of the MLA to DMK.

Palayamkottai - This seat is a core DMK seat which has elected only a DMK MLA since 1996. In fact this seat is a minority dominated seat, which may not move the BJP leadership to contest this seat, though BJP polled a humungous number  of 43,000 votes while ADMK polled 8,000 votes here in 2024 LS election.  ADMK had contested this seat in the last election where it polled 36,000 votes and lost by a margin of 53,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat back in 2011 & 2016, where it did poll around 5% votes, hence there is a chance that BJP may send its candidate to ADMK to fight on 2 leaves symbol to signal alliance strengthening in the district of state BJP president. Or maybe, BJP can actually contest this seat giving it has some cadre strength.

Radhapuram -  This seat has a DMK MLA. BJP polled 58,000 votes while ADMK polled 17,500 votes. Last election was contested by current ADMK Rajya Sabha member IS Inbadurai who lost the election with just around 6,000 votes. Though, ADMK may be averse in allocating this seat to BJP, but BJP may contest this seat by citing that the last time BJP contested this seat in 2016, it did poll upto 6% votes. There may have a chance of BJP contesting this seat.

Nanguneri - This is a seat where BJP did poll around 57,000 votes while ADMK polled 15,000 votes in LS 2024 election. However, BJP may  not stand a chance to contest this seat as, this seat had AMMK poll 16% votes in the last election. Hence, this seat is up for negotiations between ADMK & AMMK.

6. Miscallenous -

There are a few other seats where BJP end up contesting based on the Lok Sabha poll results. Some of them are -

Orthandu - This seat was one of the seats where BJP polled more votes than ADMK in Thanjavur lok sabha seats. It polled around 31,000 votes while ADMK polled 26,000 votes.ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 where it polled 90,000 votes & has an ADMK MLA, which may make EPS averse to allocating this seat to BJP. Maybe, BJP cadres would be made more involved in the campaignining process.

Karaikudi - This seat saw BJP poll around 43,000 votes while ADMK polled 32,000 votes in LS 2024 elections. This seat falls under Sivagangai lok sabha seat which was contested by caste leader T.Devanathan Yadav (Currently in jail) on BJPs symbol. BJPs H. Raja had contested this seat in 2021 and had lost by a small margin, which may again see ADMK allocate this seat to BJP, though to win BJP needs more coordination with ADMK.

Conclusion -

Based on the analysis of 70 seats across 15 Lok Sabha seats that was conducted by the author. Here is the cumulative seats which may have a BJP candidate in the upcoming TN elections. The interesting fact is that, all the seats which BJP end up contesting would be in urban areas or in urban periphery areas where the party has expanded over the past few years. While, BJP has expanded in the state however, its growth still remains heavily concentrated in certain districts like - Coimbatore, Kaniyakumari, Ramnad, Tirunelveli, Chennai region & some parts of Vellore, Madurai, Krishnagiri & Pollachi. BJP needs to invest in any caste combination like how it did in states like Maharashtra, to expand in rural areas & raise state relevant issues in the urban areas as BJPs textbook expansion has always been to win over in urban areas first. BJP must also ask parties like Tamil Manila Congress, TMMK, IJK & other smaller caste parties to merge with it so that the cadre strength is increased, this would always put BJP in a stronger position to negotiate with ADMK in the state. This article did not analyse the other 14 odd seats  which the BJP had left out to its alliance partners as leaving those seats to allies itself means that BJPs position in those seats may not be very strong, maybe BJP can end up getting some seats there but, it would be very difficult ones considering BJPs cadre strength.

Overall, the seats which BJP may end up contesting in this election (on these specific lok sabha covered):- Karaikudi, Radhapuram, Tirunelvei, Ramanathapuram, Paramkudi, Vilvancode, Padmanabhapuram, Kaniyakumari, Colachel, Kiliyoor, Coimbatore South, Kavundanapalayam, Hosur, Thalli, Tiruppur South, Thousand Lights, Harbour, Anna Nagar, Chepauk, Egmore, Villivakkam, Mylapore, Velachery, Madurai South, Madurai Central, Udagamandalam, Conoor & Vellore. This totals around - 29.

Seats Which BJP May Contest In TN Elections 2026 - Granular Electoral Analysis of 26 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies

Source - The Frontline Magazine

Introduction -

The Tamil Nadu assembly elections are around the corner. This elections is also quite special for the state, as it would be the first election which wont be fought in the shadow of 3 towering politicians, namely, Captain Vijaykanth, M. Karunanidhi & J. Jayalalithaa who dominated the state politics discourse for around 2 decades. This election is also unique which is also conducted on the backdrop for the first time since the death of M. Karunanidhi where DMK is the current incumbent. Furthermore, this election is also critical, as its after almost 16 years, that a mass cinema actor has transitioned into full time politics, this is none other than Thalapathy Vijay who is contesting elections with his newly formed Tamilaga Vetri Kalagam party.

This election is also being fuelled by the alliance talks of both UPA & NDA. Since, TVK of Mr. Jospeh Vijay is not in any alliance as of now, hence this article does not discuss 

UPA currently has - DMK as the prinicipal party with Congress, VCK (an outfit meant for the political upliftment of Dalits) of Mr. Thol Thirmaluvan, Indian Union Muslim League, Mukkalathor Pulipadai (an outfit meant for the political interests of  Thevar OBC caste) of Mr. Karunas, Left parties (both CPI & CPM), All India Forward Bloc, Adhi Tamilar Perivai (an outfit meant for the political upliftment of Dalits), DMDK of late actor Captain Vijaykanth who joined the alliance barely a few days ago, KMDK (an outfit concentrated in Kongu region of Tamil Nadu), MNM of actor Kamal Hasan, MDMK of Mr. Vaiyapuri Gopalasamy (called Vaiko), SDPI(political front of banned terrorist organisation PFI), splinter group of PMK led by Ramadoss Sr. & a few other small political outfits. The total number of parties in this entire alliance is close to a total of 21 parties. The seat sharing talks is so far not concluded as the deadlock between the DMK & Congress continues as of the time of writing this article.

On the other hand, the NDA has multiple parties, which includes - ADMK led by Edapaddi K. Palanisamy, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), AMMK (of VK Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran), IJK of  TR Paarivendar, PMK of Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss, PDK of Muthaih, PTMK of NR Dhanapalan, PBK of M. Jagan Moorthy, PNK of AC Shanamugham, South Indian Forward Bloc of KC Thimuran, TMMK of John Pandian, Tamil Manila Congress of GK Vasan, UUK and the possibility of PT by Dr. K. Krishnaswamy slated to join the alliance. Even the NDA alliance is close to a total of 14 parties. The NDA alliance in 2021, had all these parties sans AMMK & some caste leaders. As per news reports, PMK has already been allocated 16 seats by ADMK in the alliance as of now.

Lok Sabha Elections & BJP -

Now, the interesting part is that in the 2024 elections, the BJP which was led by then state president & former IPS officer, K. Annamalai had contested the election effectively as a third front as a NDA alliance. BJP had contested around 25 seats on its own symbol, with 10 seats which were given to PMK, 3 seats were allocated to Tamil Manila Congress & 1 seat was allocated to AMMK of TTV Dhinakaran. The other parties in the current NDA, were all contesting on BJPs symbol, which made the contest really interesting. Leaders like TR Paarivendhar, John Pandian, AC Shanamugham & T. Devanathan Yadav, had contested the elections on BJP symbol. In this election, the second Dravidian major, ADMK had an alliance with DMDK, PT & a few caste based leaders. 

BJP posted interesting but mixed results in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, while it managed to come second in around a dozen constituencies,but the vote share of BJP remained at around 12% which was the highest ever the state unit has ever polled in the party history. Coupled, with the election  & now, with the latest data of ECI, which has pointed out BJP to be the third largest party in TN at booth level, has prompted tall state BJP leaders like Nainar Nagendran (current state BJP chief) to demand upto 50 seats in its alliance with ADMK.

This article has taken into account, a few lok sabha seats where the BJP managed to save its deposit/finish second & around 70 vidhan sabha segments, where BJP managed to poll good number of votes & using basic data analysis, will try to possibly point out the seats which BJP may end up contesting in the ongoing seat sharing negotiations within the NDA. BJP had failed to lead in even a single vidhan sabha constituency in LS 2024, which was a reason for them to get into an alliance with ADMK again.

Seat by seat analysis (Lok Sabha level) 

1. Tiruvallur - This lok sabha seat is located in the northernmost part of Tamil Nadu. The current MP from this seat was from the Congress party, who won  with a margin of almost 5.72 lakh votes. The BJP candidate here was Mr. Pon. V. Balaganapathy who finised second with a 15% vote share, pushing ADMK led alliance which had DMDK as its ally to the third position. This seat had 3 vidhan sabha segments where the BJP managed to poll more number of votes than that of DMDK. 

The seat of Ponnamalle has a current MLA from the DMK party. BJP polled around 38k votes in this assembly segment, while DMDK (part of ADMK alliance) polled around 37.5k votes, as per form B data. The NDA candidate in 2021 belonged to the PMK party who polled around 55k votes, BJP has never contested this seat in its history in Tamil Nadu. While the cumulative alliance did perform well, there are high chances that this seat, may again be given to PMK, as it falls in Northern Tamil Nadu which is considered to be a stronghold of PMK due to the backing of the influential Vanniyar OBC community. Additionally, given that BJP has never contested in this seat, hence the probability of BJP getting this seat allocated to them seems very low.

The second seat, where the BJP candidate was able to poll good number of votes was in Avadi vidhan sabha constituency. It polled 51k votes in this segment while DMDK(part of ADMK alliance) polled around 34,337 votes. The NDA candidate in 2021, belonged to the ADMK, who polled around 95 k votes. BJP has never contested in this seat in its history of TN, hence there are chances that ADMK may field its own candidate here.

The third seat, where BJP polled good votes was in Madavaram. BJP polled 43,990 votes while DMDK(part of ADMK alliance) polled around 40,000 votes in this segment. The NDA candidate in 2021 belonged to ADMK, who polled around 91k votes. BJP has never contested this seat in its history in TN, hence there are high chances that ADMK may field its own candidate here.

2. Chennai city - Chennai city has 3 lok sabha seats located in its vicinity. These 3 seats are namely - Chennai North, Chennai Central & Chennai South. All these 3 seats were contested by BJP in the vidhan sabha election. BJP finished third in Chennai North & finished second in Chennai Central, Chennai South seat.

A. Chennai North seat was contested by RC Paul Kanagaraj, who polled around 12.5%. The party of ADMK led alliance which contested in this seat was ADMK itself. BJP ended up finishing third in this constituency. 

BJP had respectable polling figures, only in 1 seat of this vidhan sabha segment, which was Kolathur, where it polled around 25k votes, while ADMK polled 18k votes. The last election was contested by ADMK candidate who polled around 44k votes. This vidhan sabha segment is represented by the Tamil Nadu CM, MK Stalin, hence, it is very less likely that ADMK may like to allocate this seat to BJP as it can give DMK the opportunity to its erstwhile ally in poor light. Hence, BJP contesting Kolathur seat is a bit low, even though the BJP leadership may be keen to contest this seat. Additionally, BJP has never contested this seat, which also makes it against them. However, the NDA alliance may want to field a star candidate in this seat. 

B. Chennai Central seat was contested by state BJYM chief, Vinoj Selvam. The other party in contest on this seat was DMDK who was contesting on behalf of ADMK alliance. BJP polled 23% votes on this seat, which is a massive deal as this seat has constantly elected tall leaders of the DMKs first family like- M. Karunanidhi, Udhayanidhi Stalin, Murasoli Maran & Dayanidhi Maran in the past. BJP polled good votes in all the 6 assembly segments and was comfortably ahead of ADMK+ alliance.

In Thousand Lights, BJP polled around 31k votes, while DMDK polled only 12k votes. Current MLA here is from DMK party. In the 2021 election, this seat was contested by Khushboo Sundar, who is currently a BJP leader in TN. She had polled around 39,000 votes in this seat. In total, the cumulative NDA performance in this seat projected a rise of 4,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat, in 1996, 2001, 2016 & 2021, which makes BJPs claim to this seat strong enough in the NDA alliance.

The other seat of Chennai Central, where BJP did perform well surprisingly was in Harbour. BJP polled around  27,000 votes which was way ahead of the 5,000 odd votes polled by DMDK here. In 2021 election, this seat was contested by Vinoj Selvam of BJP. He had polled around 32,000 votes, cumulatively the performance of NDA on this seat has been the same. Given, BJP has contested this seat in 1989,1996,2006,2011, 2016 & 2021, it is high possibility that ADMK may like to allocate this seat to BJP.

Anna Nagar is another seat of Chennai Central lok sabha seat, where the BJP performed well in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. BJP polled 33,000 votes which was way ahead of 19,000 odd votes which were polled by the DMDK. In 2021, this seat was contested by S. Gokula Indira of ADMK, who roughly polled around 52,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat in the past elections of 1991,1996, 2006 & 2016. Given, the politically vibrant history of this seat, which elected DMK patriarch, M. Karunanidhi back in 1967, BJP would like to ideally push for this seat. There are high chances, that BJP may end up contesting this seat.

Chepauk seat is the most critical seat of Chennai Central lok sabha constituency, today. Chepauk is the sitting MLA seat of current DCM, Udhayanidhi Stalin. BJP polled around 24,000 votes which was way ahead of 9,000 odd votes by DMDK. In 2021, this seat was contested by Kasaali of PMK, who polled only around 23,000 votes. Given, in the last election itself, ADMK conceeded this seat to PMK, there are high chances that, ADMK would like to conceede this seat to some NDA ally. Given, the nature of this seat which is a hardcore DMK stronghold seat, BJP may like to contest this seat, seeing that, the cumulative votes of current NDA setup increased by around 10,000 in lok sabha elections. BJP has contested this seat twice sans alliance, in 2011 & 2016, which strengthens their claim. NDA alliance, may like to field, some tall leader in this seat like, K. Annamalai who may poll good number of votes here in the battle of young turks.

Egmore seat is another seat, which has a high proportion of voters. The sitting MLA is from DMK party. BJP polled around 24,000 votes in this particular seat, which was again way ahead of DMDKs 11,000 odd votes. In 2021, this seat was contested was John Pandian, current TMMK chief on ADMK symbol. He polled around 30,000 votes in that election. There was a marginal rise of around 4,000 votes on this seat. BJP has contested here in 1996,2006, 2011 & 2016 from this seat. BJP which contested in 2016 on its own strength, had polled arund 7000 votes in this segment.

This is one of the seats, which ADMK has never won in its history, hence, it would have no problems in allocating this seat to any of its alliance partners. BJP may point out that, the last NDA candidate, B. John Pandian had contested this seat on its symbol in Tenkasi lok sabha constituency, hence, there are good chances that John Pandian may contest on BJPs symbol. 

Villivakkam assembly constituency was contested by BJP on its own strength in 2016 where it had polled around 6,000. BJP polled 27,000 votes on this seat which was double of DMDKs 13,000 odd votes in the 2024 lok sabha election. This is another seat which has been a DMK stronghold, with the exception of 2011 & 1980 where ADMK had its MLA here, who was their candidate in 2021 as well. ADMK had polled around 38,000 votes, which is fractionally less than the cummulative votes by NDA on this seat. However, that MLA & candidate, JCD Prabhakar has ended up joining Jospeh Vijay's TVK and most likely be its candidate here.  Given, he had also contested on ADMKs symbol multiple times, there maybe,ADMKs position is weak here. Therefore, provided BJPs history & the way, BJP polled votes here in 2024 Lok sabha election, there maybe the presence of an ADMK candidate over BJP symbol, which can spice up the contest on this seat.

Therefore, there is a very real chance that, BJP may end up fielding its candidates in maybe all the 6 vidhan sabha segments of Chennai Central lok sabha seat.

C. Chennai South - In 2024, this seat was contested by Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, former Pondicherry governor. This seat saw BJP poll 24% votes, while ADMK polled around 15% votes here. ADMK had fielded its senior leader J. Jayavardhan here, which does mean that the seat negotiations for Chennai South will be hectic for both BJP & ADMK here. All the MLAs on this lok sabha seat, are from the UPA alliance, with 5 being from DMK & 1 from INC. This allows, the NDA to try new candidates & caste combinations for this lok sabha segment.

Virugambakam seat currently has a DMK MLA at helm. In this seat, BJP polled around 45,000 votes, while ADMK polled 22,000 votes. In 2021, ADMK had fielded Virugai VN Ravi, who polled around 55,000 votes. BJPs Tamilisai Soundararajan had contested this seat separately in 2016, who polled close to 19,000 votes. This seat, has had a BJP cadre, hence BJP may ask ADMK to allocate this seat to them. However, given ADMK had its own MLAs in 2016 & in 2011 DMDK (part of ADMK alliance), hence its unlikely that, ADMK would allocate this seat to BJP. In the last election, the winning margin of DMK alliance was just 19,000 votes, hence, proper election management by BJP & ADMK may swing this seat in favour of NDA.

Thiyaraja Nagar seat, saw BJP poll around 45,000 votes while ADMK polled around 17,000 votes in the 2024 elections. ADMK had its candidate, B. Sathiyanarayan  in this seat, who barely lost by a margin of 1000 votes in that election. Though, BJP has contested this seat back in 2011 & 2016, and may have some decent candidate here, however, given the margin of ADMKs loss in 2026 was of just 1000 votes, hence ADMK wont like to conceede this seat to BJP.  However, given the historic performance of BJP on this seat, ADMK may field a candidate who is acceptable & popular to the local BJP cadres in this vidhan sabha constituency.

Mylapore seat would be another seat, which would be hotly discussed between the 2 alliance partners. BJP had its own MLA here back in 2001, in addition, BJP polled around 38,944 votes which was almost double of the votes that ADMK polled here in 2024 vidhan sabha elections which was around 22,000 votes. In the 2021 election, ADMK had its former IPS officer candidate, R. Nataraj, who polled 55,000 votes here. However, givem BJPs historic performance & the rise of TVK in Chennai city, which may see its top leaders like Vijay contest in the city, BJP may push ADMK to allocate this seat to them. However, even if ADMK contests this seat, they would require help from BJPs cadres to win in this vidhan sabha constituency. Therefore, there is a good possibility that BJP will contest this seat.

Velachery is another seat, which would be hotly debated between the cadres of the BJP & ADMK. BJP polled around 51,000 votes compared to ADMKs 23,000 odd votes in this seat. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, with MK Ashok being its candidate back then, he had polled upto 64,000 votes here. He had lost with a bare small margin of around 4,000 votes. BJP had contested this seat independetly in 2016, where it had polled around 15,000 votes. Given, AMMK had also polled around 1,500 votes here in that election, therefore, BJP may ask its good friend TTV Dhinakaran to help it in alliance talks with ADMK, which may see a consensus candidate on BJP symbol. There is a good probability, that ADMK will conceede this seat to BJP in return for a candidate who can work with ADMK & AMMKs cadres.

Saidapet, is another seat which has been BJPs area of focus since the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. BJP has contested this seat in 1991,1996,2006, 2011 & 2016. The last time, BJP contested here, it had polled 6,000 votes roughly. BJP had recieved around, 28,000 votes in this constituency which was just 5000 votes more than ADMKs performance here. Additionally, ADMK had fielded its first Chennai city mayor, S. Duraisamy in 2021 where he had polled around 50,000 votes. Therefore, the presence of an established candidate & a small gap between the NDA constituents in LS 2024 election, may dampen BJPs chances of fielding its own candidate here

Shoziganallur, is one of the most densely populated seats of Tamil Nadu. DMK had polled 1.2 lakh votes here in the 2024 Lok sabha elections, BJP was at second which polled 81,000 votes & ADMK had polled 63,000 votes. In 2021, ADMK had contested this seat, where it had polled, 1.36 lakh votes but lost to DMK by around 35,000 votes. Given, TVKs entry & the strong presence of NTK in the last elections, it is unlikely that,  ADMK would give this seat to BJP, given that BJP did contest here back in 2016 where it finished an abysmal 4th position. Therefore, the probability of BJP contesting this seat is really low.

3. Madurai - In this lok sabha seat, the most interesting set of results were posted in the lok sabha elections. This lok sabha seat, has seen, BJP bigwigs like Narendra Modi & Amit Shah visit repeatedly. BJP had finished second in this seat, which is considered as the cultural heartbeat of Tamil Nadu, by polling 22% votes, while ADMK had polled around 20% in this seat. DMK ally CPM had polled just around 43.6% votes here. ADMK currently has MLAs in Melur & Madurai West constituency, hence, common wisdom suggests that, most likely, BJP wont stake claim to these vidhan sabha segments.

The 4 other seats, has MLAs from DMK (3) & MDMK. Additionally, the rise in support by Thevar community, along with the controversial Thiruppanakundaram issue, will push BJP to negotiate hard with the ADMK for some winnable vidhan sabha segments here. BJP candidate here, was Prof. Raama Sreenivisan.

Madurai East - BJP had polled close to 43,000 votes in this seat, compared to ADMKs, 39,000 votes.ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 vidhan sabha elections, where its candidate, R. Gopalakrishnan had polled around 73,000 votes. He had lost the elections by a margin of almost 50,000 votes. Given, this seat has had multiple ADMK MLAs in the past, hence the chance of this seat having a BJP candidate seems less likely as of today. BJP has contested this seat back in 2016, but the performance was not that great, where it had polled only 6,000 votes. BJP contesting this seat looks less likely.

Madurai North- BJP & ADMK polled almost the same number of votes in 2024 Lok sabha elections. This seat was contested by P. Sarvanan of BJP in 2021, who polled around 51,000 votes. He later joined ADMK. P. Sarvanan has been a former MLA from this place with multiple stints in MDMK, DMK & BJP. Hence, given, that BJPs candidate has joined ADMK, hence ADMK not staking claim to this seat would actually be very surprising.

Madurai South - BJP & ADMK polled 42,000 & 25,000 votes here respectively in 2024 lok sabha elections. This seat in 2021 was contested by SS Sarvanan of AIADMK, who had polled around 56,000 votes, while losing the elections was a  bare margin of 6,000 votes. BJP had contested this seat in 2016, where it had polled around 16,000 votes. This seat had also seen, AMMK poll around 2500 votes in that election, hence, given BJPs background, recent performance, local cadre strength & likely support from AMMK, BJP may have its own candidate in this prestigious constituency.

Madurai Central is the last seat in this lok sabha constituency. BJP had polled 29,000 votes here while ADMK had polled 25,000 votes here. ADMK had contested this election, but the candidate, N. Jothi Muthuramalingam had lost by almost 34,000 votes in this constituency. While given, the total votes are around, 54,000 in this seat in 2024 Lok sabha elections, hence there is again a good chance that, BJP may end up contesting this seat, however, it would require a candidate from ADMK as, the last time BJP had contested here, it had polled only 6,000 votes. Hence, this is another seat, that ADMK may like to allocate to BJP, while sending its candidate on the lotus symbol. 

4. Nilgiris - This seat is located in the heart of Kongu Nadu. Nilgiris lok sabha seat, saw BJP candidate  & union MoS,  Dr. L. Murugan finished second by polling 22% votes, while ADMK polled 21% votes here in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. ADMK currently has MLAs in 4/6 assembly segments, hence, it is very unlikely, that, it would end up allocating these seats to BJP, where it already has MLAs. However, there are 2 seats in the seat namely - Conoor & Udagamandalam, where BJP may end up contesting. One of these seats is with the Congress party & 1 is with the DMK.

Udagamandalam- This seat saw, BJP poll around 36,000 votes while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in the election. BJP had contested this seat in 2021 and had polled 61,000 votes. Hence, even sans the alliance, BJPs cadre strength here, seems to be strong enough to warrant a re contest with its own candidate. BJP has contested this seat consistently, since 1989 which should also be a reason, why ADMK may end up allocating this seat in the alliance to the BJP.

Conoor - This seat saw BJP poll around 29,000 votes while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in the election. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 and had polled around 57,000 votes. However, given, ADMKs abysmal performance here without the BJP, shows that again BJP has a better cadre strength in this seat, which may end up contesting this seat. BJP has contested this seat a few times, but has never polled a lot of votes here.

Though, the BJP has outperformed, ADMK, in 2024 Lok sabha elections in the vidhan sabha constituency of Mettupalayam, however,ADMK may hesitate in allocating this seat to the BJP, however, it may allocate a candidate who can closely work with the local BJP cadres.

5. Vellore - This seat was contested by New Justice Party's chief, AC Shanamugham on BJP symbol. Vellore currently has 2 ADMK MLAs hence, common political wisdom suggests that, BJP may not ask ADMK to allocate those seats to them. AC Shanmugham while contesting on BJP symbol had polled around 3.5 lakh votes & 31.25% votes, which pushed ADMK to lose its deposit on this seat. This may push AC Shanmugham's outfit to demand more seats from ADMK, where BJP may play the mediating role in negotiations and may end up benefitting in a few seats.

 

Vellore (VS) - BJP polled around 65,000 votes here while ADMK had polled just 11,000 votes in 2024 lok sabha elections. ADMKs candidate here in 2021 was SRK Appu who had polled 75,000 votes back then. Given, the massive difference of the votes between the NDA constituents, BJP may try to convince ADMK to let, it field AC Shamugham on its lotus symbol. Also, given, ADMK has historically struggled in this seat since 1977 where it had its MLA only twice, ADMK may not be averse to allocating this seat to BJP which may field AC Shanmugham on its symbol. BJP has contested this seat consistently, from 1996 onwards with 2 breaks only in 2001 & 2021.

Anaikattu - BJP polled 71,000 votes here while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 where its candidate was D. Velazaghan who lost the election with a paltry margin of only 7,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat back in 2006 & 2016, but given, ADMKs performance in both election, may not help BJP to stake claim over this seat.

Gudiyattam - BJP polled close to 58,000 votes here while ADMK polled 21,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, where its candidate, G. Paritha lost by a small margin of 7000 votes. BJP has never contested this seat in its history. Given, ADMKs cadre strength & nature of state elections in TN, ADMK will be averse in allocating this seat to BJP.

Ambur - While BJP polled 47,000 votes & ADMK polled 19,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, where its candidate had polled around 40% votes. BJP has contested this seat in its history, where it finished fifth twice. Given, ADMKs poor performance here, it may like to allocate this seat to BJP, however, given the high proportion of minority population on this seat, BJP may not wish to take this seat. Therefore, this seat would also likely have an ADMK leader.

Conclusion - 

Based on seat by seat analysis of close to 7 lok sabha seats & 26 vidhan sabha seats, where BJP did poll decent number of votes in 2024 Lok sabha elections, there is a possibility that, BJP may end up contesting on close to 11 to 12 seats in the ongoing seat negotiations. However, given, political complexities this prediction may or may not be true, which should be known in a matter of few days.

India - Bhutan Customs Union :- A Possible Checkmate Move In Himalayas

India - Bhutan relations

Context -

South Asia is one of the most populated regions of the earth. The sub contiental region consists of countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives & even China to a geographical extent. The total population of this sub continental region, is around 2.2 billion, which is around 1/3rd of the world's population. Coming from this region, has also resulted in a lot of geopolitical competition between the countries, which has often resulted in tense millitary faceoffs between these nations. One of the 21st century sub regional geopolitical rivalry driving the South Asian Indian subcontinent is undoubtedly between India & China.

One of the tense battlegrounds in this rivalry is in Bhutan. Bhutan and North East India especially Arunachal Pradesh has been a tense battleground between the 2 Asian supergiants. Over the past years, tense faceoffs have occured in Doklam in 2017, the building of dams over Brahmaputra Mahabahu river by both millitary powers, Galwan faceoff of 2020, banning of Chinese apps in 2020 & claims over Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh by China. The one country, that has recieved a lot of attention, between this geopolitical tug of war is Bhutan. 

India - Bhutan Relations background :

Bhutan is a peculiar nation state and is the textbook definition of a country, which is sensitive to its own culture & does not involve itself massively into global affairs of the world. Bhutan enjoys the status as a protected state to India, under a treaty signed between the Kingdom of Bhutan & British India back in 1910, which has still continued today. This had happened after the Chinese expedition of Tibet in 1910 and post the 1962 India - China war which also occured due to the Tibetan issue, between the 2 countries, the ties between India and the Buddhist Himalayan kingdom have further deepened. In the past years, Bhutan's king has also visited many Indian states routinely.

However, since 1972 the countries had a massive change in relationship, including a review of the friendship treaty of 2007 which allowed Bhutan to decide on its own arms imports & Bhutan also ended up joining the UN in 1972 in this time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also honored with the Order of Druk Gyalpo in 2025, which shows that despite changes in bilateral relations, the relationship between the 2 countries, extends more than just economic & millitary benefits. The list of visits between different Indian delegations like that of president, prime minister, chief ministers etc.can be found here. 

Trade relations have prospered between the countries in this period from 1972 onwards. The India - Bhutan, Agreement on Trade & Commerce established a free trade framework that laid the institutional foundation for bilateral trade. The overall trade between these 2 countries, rose to around US$ 1,777.44 million which is more than triple since 2014.India due to its superior economic size, enjoys a trade surplus with Bhutan. Since, 2014, India - Bhutan has had a CAGR of around 13.9%. The biggest trade contributor between these countries, is undoubtedly hydropower & infrastructure funding, which has led to a solid economic growth in both these countries. For starters, Bhutan, also grew at 4% in FY 2024, which is impressive given the troubled geopolitical waters of the Indian subcontinent since the coronavirus pandemic.

Customs Union Idea - 

All of this coupled with India - Bhutan friendship treaty of 1949, where Bhutan has allowed India to "guide" its foreign policy creates an opening which many Indian diplomats & bureaucrats are not thinking about. This pertains to formalising the India - Bhutan relationship into a customs union, which will bring in massive economic & diplomatic benefits to both the countries. 

Now, for starters, customs union is a trade agreement between countries that eliminates internal tariffs on goods & establishes a common external tariff for imports from non member countries. The customs union promotes free trade between the members while adopting a uniform policy against external countries. Countries, usually adopt this policy  to improve their economic standing while teaming up with "like minded" parties to corner a bigger power. In a customs union, multiple things come under the agreement, like a common currency, common trade policy, harmonized indirect tax mechanisms amongst other features.

Now, maybe customs union can be seen as a hindrance to multilateral trading system, however, this system has been widely practiced by many countries. The best example of customs union is between Switzerland & Leichtenstein, which has a single currency (swiss franc) & has adopted a common trade policy since many decades now.

In fact, the economic relations between India & Bhutan, has been said to be a part of quasi customs union, as, Bhutan's 90% trade is with the Republic of India, Indian rupee is a legal tender in Bhutan, BHIM UPI is accepted in Bhutan, the only thing missing between the 2 countries is the presence of a unified trade policy & a harmonized VAT system which can be a big diplomatic success for India. Given, India has been on a spree of signing free trade agreements with different countries over the past 3 years with major examples being - Australia, New Zealand, the USA (tentatively), UK, EFTA, EU & UAE being the best mirror of the FTAs that India has signed.

Furthermore, given, the historical proximity  between India & Bhutan, along with the similar cultural proximity with respect to trans Himalayan Buddhism, a proper customs union arrangement will also be accepted sans hostility between the 2 countries. Additionally, geographically, Bhutan can act as a critical refuelling point for Indian armed forces, which can also pave way for additional infrastructure project in the Himalayan country, which can not only prove to be a startegic masterstroke for India but would also enhance connectivity between mainland India & Northeast India, while diversifying the startegic importance from the critical "Chicken Neck" coridoor. Given, that India guides Bhutan in its foreign policy decisions and trains the Royal Bhutan Army via the Indian Millitary Training Team, a customs union formalisation should not be a major challenge

Also, given, that, Bhutan has also recently introduced a single taxation system of VAT in 2022, while replacing Sales Tax & Customs Duty. Bhutan adopting the GST regime of India with some minor changes should also not be a major bottleneck, between the 2 neighbours. Furthermore, to incentivise & deepen  the bilateral relations, between both the countries, Bhutan must be advertised as a tourism spot, by the Indian government & content creators which can prove to be a massive gamechanger for beautiful Bhutan's economy, where tourism contributes to around 6% of the overall GDP.

Furthermore, in a customs union agreement, agricultural export tariffs from Bhutan can be completely slashed to zero, which will allow for controlled competition for products like rice, horticulture & wheat in certain states of Northeast India, which will allow for major productivity boost for India's agricultural sector. Finally, Bhutan's cricket team should be allowed to be a part of India's domestic system like Ranji Trophy, SMAT etc. which will improve the sporting relations between the countries, also as a goodwill gesture, the Faridabad cricket ground in Haryana which has been used for very few matches can be given to Bhutan under a revenue sharing agreement as a home ground, this will be seen as winning over critical optics for the country.

Formalising, a customs union agreement between India & Bhutan, can bring in multiple optical victories for India. India has long been seen as the king of tariffs and the upgrade from a quasi customs union to customs union, will allow India to negotiate more confidently in the plurilateral agreements at conferences such as the MC - 14, which will be a major gamechanger for multiple Indian sectors. A customs union agreement between India & Bhutan, will additionally allow the RBI to internationalise the rupee which is already a legal tender in Bhutan. Such an agreeent will also help, India to strengthen the rupee in today's super charged currency markets, while protecting the Ngulrum from further volatile changes in the currency markets. In fact, India can assist, Bhutan in developing as a financial tax heaven like how Leichtenstein is for Switzerland in today's day & time. India can in fact, even try to lure, international organisations from cities like Geneva, by using Bhutan & Northeast India as a front. Such a customs agreement will further cement India's Act East policy, which has been in existence since 1990s.

Overall, a customs union between the 2 countries is a win - win agreement for the both and the Indian establishment needs to look at this seriously, not only from a trade perspective but also from a perspective of national security, economic security & diplomacy, which is very crucial for the 21st century for the developmental journey of South Asia. This kind of customs union formalisation, will also checkmate the ambitions of an expansionist China & an unpredictable USA in the great long game of Himalayas.

Sectors Which Can Be Big Winners From Budget 2026

The Indian union budget 2026 is around the corner and as always, the talks are on about which sectors can benefit massively from the upcoming budget. The budget in India, unlike other countries is still very important, because, it is one of the mechanisms that links monetary policy to fiscal policy in the country. This article seeks to analyse, which are all the sectors that can benefit from the upcoming union budget in the country.

(1) Trade sector - One of the sectors,which should logically benefit is the trade sector of India. Trade in the country has been hit hard, with multiple geopolitical shifts that have occured in the past year and with the threat of 500% Trump tariffs looming high. Coinicidentally, this sector has also performed well in the past year, while posting decent trade surpluses and closing out multiple trade deals like the India - Oman FTA & India - NZ FTA, while having a good pace of progress on the India - EU FTA. However, given that USA is India's biggest trading partner, measures like - ECLGS for the exporters, along with possible hikes in customs duty over agricultural imports which has been a bone of contention between India & USA in ongoing trade talks, along with increased budget allocations for the INSTC, restarting of ITS service which has  been a demand from many & maybe Chabahar Port can be the big reforms that the trade sector can see in this particular budget. Many articles have already been authored over this blog for this particular sector.

Its critical for the government to also invest big in the trade sector to first stabilise the rupee's constant depriciation against almost all the major trading currencies of the world & to also assuage concerns of the constant FII outflow which has occured in the past 3 quarters, which is concerning for a country like India, which still requires foreign capital to aid its development.

(2) Dairy sector - Dairy sector in the NSE is led by an unlisted AMUL which has increased its brand presence in USA & EU countries over the past year. Dairy is an interesting sector for India, as per the recent comments by NDDB chief Manesh Shah, India is poised to produce 33% of world's dairy needs by the next decade and to the sector's credit, India is already the largest producer of dairy related products in the world. In fact, the India - New Zealand FTA was criticised recently by ministers in New Zealand, primarily because, India refused to give any concessions over dairy industry which is India's direct competitor. The sector contributes around 4% to India's 4.5 trillion$ GDP & supports 80 million rural households, which is also a massive figure considering India's agricultural population. 

The output of the dairy industry shows that, it remains a productive agricultural industry in the country. Dairy productivity in the sector is really low when compared to other countries like the USA, which this union budget should ideally try to introduce mechanisation measures for this particular industry. Increased allocations for schemes like Rashtriya Gokul Mission can also be thought of in this particular budget. The budget for this ministry in the last 3 budgets was roughly around 4000 crore INR, which can see an increase in this particular budget. Marketing related reforms for the smaller dairy companies or schemes like ECGLS for the weaker dairy companies can also be thought about in this particular budget.

Additional reforms in this sector can be of, employing young professionals, consultants along with probably solving the decades long issue of double regulation for cooperative banks, which are increasingly at a risk of being insolvent, possibly under the RBI, which can bring much needed benefit for this sector which can be a sunrise sector for the country.

(3) Defence - Defence is all set to be  the biggest winner in this union budget. The past year, India has faced multiple geopolitical challenges. The Indian Air force led Operation Sindoor, the constant commissioning of new ships by the Indian Navy & the increasing need for modernizing the armed forces is one of the biggest reasons why the capital expenditure over this sector can be around 10 lakh INR for this particular year. The bigger reform in an ideal world, would be however, to reduce the pensions component for the defence ministry which subsumes 40% of the budget every year, possibly introducing the UPS scheme for the retired officials, can help in better managing the fiscal resources, given the time has come to increasingly modernize the 3 forces.

Given, India also aims to get around 10% of defence exports in the global arms market by 2030, possible reforms can be - reintroducing defence coridoors in states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Odisha & Andhra Pradesh, which are in dire need of expanding industrial manufacturing in their states, this reform used to be a highlight in union budgets up until 2022, but since then has gone quite in the last 4 budgets in the country.

Additional, reforms in this sector can include - home production of nuclear submarines post the SHANTI bill, home production of fighter jets, concluding deals like Rafael jets and FII related reforms with respect to the IDEX program can be big winners. Furthermore, we can see an increase in budget for hiring Young professionals & consulants for this sector.

If possible, the sector must also look to increase the presence of defence related think tanks in the country to multiple cities, instead of being concentrated only in the India Habitat Centre of Lutyens Delhi, which has become synonymous of control by some retired bureaucrats who are not even graduates in defence related subjects (economics or international relations) & whose only shot to fame is clearing an exam almost 50 years ago. Such kind of control disincentivizes youngsters to undertake any productive research undertaken in this field. This was particularly clear, as seen during the aftermath of Operation Sindoor where it took almost a year to convey to the world that India had won decisively during the war.

The possible reform can be to increase offices of organisations like RIS, MP - IDSA & giving serious financial impetus to defence related magazines in India in the other cities like - Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai and Ahmedabad and inviting foreign think tanks to set up their offices outside the confines of Lutyens.

(4) Urban Development - Urban development must be a big winner in this budget, given that urban areas in the country have consistently voted in the favour of BJP. Given, the need of reforms in urban governance, the first logical step can be to increase the budget for the sector upto Rs. 15,000 crore. The urban governance area really needs massive infrastructure push, along with  converting tier 2 cities into tier 1 cities, improving satellite cities in the country, rebirthing the Smart Cities mission/AMRUT Bharat scheme/ Swach Bharat scheme & financially supporting states like Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh & Maharashtra, who are investing massively in creating new cities of - Amravati, Nava Raipur & Greater Mumbai area. The government, must also adopt 4, tier 3 cities namely - Bastar, Dimapur, Warangal & Barmer and develop them as model cities in the country.

This would help states to take a conscious decision to upgrade cities can help in the country achieve development priorities. A big reform can be to give greater share of funds via schemes to the states investing in such projects. The metro expansion, bullet train expansion, inland ports & RERA related reforms can also be possible gamechangers for urban development in the country.

(5) Unconventional Sectors - They are a few unconventional sectors which can also benefit from the budget, namely - nuclear energy, insurance & cartography. Nuclear energy has been identified as a big sector which can secure Indian energy needs & the liberalisation done in cartography back in 2023, can also see big investments this time around. Insurance sector can see a big change, because the country has a lot of uninsured people and just making it compulsory before the census can see massive valuations in this sector.

Additionally, the mission to eradicate manual scavenging, covering gig workers under PMJAY scheme & TB can be bigger social schemes which can turn around the lives of people qualitatively.

Overall, the budget presents an opportunity for development for many sectors and can qualitatively change the lives of people for the better.

Indian Rupee As A Regional Hegemon - A Realistic Possibility Or A Far Fetched Dream:- Economic Analysis

Courtesy :- Marketcalls

Introduction -

Indian Rupee has been at a center of debate for many years now. The Indian rupee is the official currency of the fourth largest economy of the world. Indian rupee represents a history of monetary policy and fiscal policy reforms. For many of the starters, Indian rupee as a currency came into existence in the early 16th century and since then has undergone many changes. Today, the rupee stands at an interesting juncture where the Narendra Modi government is looking to internationalise the rupee through interesting means like the UPI, opening of vostro accounts in Russian banks etc. can the efforts of seeing the INR as a regional hegemon a realistic possibility or is it a far fetched imagination, is what the article tries to analyse today.

Confidence behind rupee internationalisation decisions -

Internalisation of the rupee has been a constant chatter in the monetary and fiscal policy of circles since the coronavirus pandemic, where the Indian economy showed massive economic resilience by lodging growth rates which have helped it to be the world's fastest economy since the past 5-6 years.

Even, during the past 4 years, since the start of the Russia - Ukraine war, which has crippled major european economies, including EU, whose overall growth rate for Q2 of FY 2025 was as low as 1.4%, India has maintained an average growth rate of 7.2% which shows that the Indian domestic demand, exports amongst the reform oriented policies are actually helping the economy emerge from the shadows. This is a smart step as India's merchandise trade has constantly increased 

Another reason, why this growth rate becomes important is because, over the past 4 years, the South Asian region has been a geopolitical pandora box. The major changes in this region have been:- Brutal coronavirus pandemic, Taliban takeover of Afghanistan which occured in 2021, Pakistan's ever volatile domestic policies and the dictatorial ironclad policies of the millitary, Sri Lanka's economic crisis which overthrew the Rajpaksha brothers, Nepal deposing off the entire political system dominated by the Communists & Nepal Congress, Bangladesh seeing anti Awami League protests along with the installation of an "interim" PM Md. Yunus by the West who is hestitant in conducting elections, India's successful Operation Sindoor against Pakistan post the Pahalgam terrorist attacks have been some of the events that could have shocked even the world's most resilient economies and India itself has seen many motivated protests.

In the backdrop of so many protests, India maintaining strong growth rate should be rated by the economists as the "21st century miracle".

Hence, the growth that India has recorded over the past 4 years is the credit to major reforms that the country has consistently seen since the 1990s and more specifically post the 2016 demonetisation. Factors like smart monetary policies of the RBI, political stability in India, strong international exports, near elimination of absolute poverty from the country etc. have aided this growth journey. This is the prime reason why the Government of India & RBI are confident enough that now is the right time to internationalise the rupee. The 2 graphs below show about India's external sector in detail.

Source: BIS

 

Source  : BIS

Open Macro logic-

The RBI has taken massive steps in this regard to internationalise the INR over the past few years. One of the steps taken is to increase the rupee invoicing by the exporters. Invoicing in currency is a central force for the trading patterns noticed in the country. The invoicing framework system in open macroeconomics has multiple core intuitions.

Trade prices are set up in 3 broad ways, namely :- Producer currency pricing where an exporter invoices in its own currency. Exchange rate movements affect foreign prices, more than exporter revenues. This tactic or startegy though is rare as to be a PCP country, financial deepening, credible currencies & strongman geopolitical startegies are required. Hence this mechanism is used majorly by countries like - Japan, USA, Switzerland amongst others. 

Local currency pricing where the exporter invoices in importer's currency, where exchange rate movements affect exporter revenues over foreign prices. This is a tactic leading to low exchange rate pass through to import prices and muted expenditure. This mechanism is used majorly by countries like Canada & Australia. 

The third mechanism is Dominant currency pricing, most global trade is invoiced in third currency mainly USD today. The reason countries do so, is because it helps in minimising transaction costs, hedging constraints & pricing risk, which in turn causes exchange rate movements of non dominant currencies to have weak effects on trade volumes, but has strong effects on domestic inflation. Hence, the cost of any country importing inflation in a DCP mechanism, especially in the backdrop of geopolitical tensions or interest rate changes is quite real and does not help in insulating the economy. This can be considered as a reason why developing countries over the decades have adopted a DCP mechanism and have seen usually high inflation rates in period of high growth rates.

As. T.Rabi Shankar, pointed out in one of the BISs research, internationalising the rupee would help reduce dependence on foreign exchange reserves & project external stability. He noted in his speech, that, forex reserves of a country using DCP mechanism is borrowed funds. Banks and corporate incur external debt at market rates which are then invested in Government securities issued by advanced economies (AEs). The rate at which external debt is incurred issubstantially higher than the return on reserves. 

In layman's language, India is trying to move from the third mechanism to the first mechanism, by takingh many interesting steps.

Steps for rupee as an international currency -

Vision IAS

The RBI in this regard has taken serious steps over the past 4 years to make rupee as an international currency, as the one factor that keeps away exporters from going away from DCP to PCP is committment based monetary policy that the RBI has adopted ever since the pandemic. The one logical step is, rupee denominated trade settlement where exports have been facilitated in INR.

This has been facilitated even in by easing FEMA regulations when Open INR accounts have been launched for settling all transactions with Indian residents in abroad branches of authorised banks, this is for foreigners. Any NRI also can open their account in special vostro account, on which an excellent explanation can be found here. 

The second step, taken by the RBI & GoI is to expand the reach of UPI services in multiple countries. Today, UPI is a payment mechanism which obviously covers 40%  of the world's digital transactions per minute, but this has been expanded in countries like :- UAE, Singapore, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, France & Mauritius. The rollout does help in expanding the reach of INR in terms of invoicing and maybe even in attracting FIIs but does not help the cause of making INR a regional hegemon, as there needs to be an integration with the financial markets of these countries, which India is currently lacking.

RBI has signed MoUs with other central banks to promote local currency settlement, including rupee. Trade agreements with partners like Sri Lanka designate INR as a foreign currency. Cross border lending in INR has also started.The RBI’s Strategic Action Plan 2024–25 includes allowing persons resident outside India (PROI) to open INR accounts abroad.

All these steps can be considered as baby steps which the RBI has undertaken so far and since the decisions have barely come into force a few years ago, not a lot of analysis can be realistically done in this regard.

Future roadmap -

The success of these steps by the RBI, depend upon a host of factors which not a lot of economists have explicitly mentioned about in the past. The first factor or maybe, risk is that, as noted by T. Rabi Shankar in his speech at BIS in 2022, that India is capital deficient country & needs foreign capital to fund its growth, at this time making rupee as an international currency can be a risk which ends up losing foreign capital. The reason being so, is that, external shocks can become very prudent on the INR and the RBI would need a separate focus wing to stabilise the INR in such circumstances.

The core of this problem is that India is a labor surplus country, while being short on capital, the only possible step in this case is to do 2 things simultaneously - (1) Capital expenditure by the GoI must be increased to around 15 lakh crore in FY 2026 and bring in policies which promotes capital heavy industries & goods like rare earths, semiconductors, AI amongst others. Furthermore, private capital must step in to increase the domestic capital market (2) India must also try to attract massive FDIs in capital intensive industries which generate employment, given the labor surplus in the country, the states can very well absorb the educated youngsters into these capital intensive industries which should set up shop in the country. Furthermore, Startup India & Standup India schemes should promote capital intensive businesses and startups. The reason, why capital intensivity of a country is critical can be found in the economic growth of China, only country which can be compared to Indian economy, had the majorly "failed" cultural revolution of 1960s but the home backyard steel production model, actually helped the country to launch their much famed 1978 reforms which really helped their economy.

The second, factor underrated but very critical in what decides a currency being a regional hegemon is, geopolitical muscle power & soft power. In the inter war years, where different currencies were ruling the roost in many different countries with their own areas of influence, the major reason was imperialism and the biggest benefactor of this was the UK, whose GB Pound Sterling was official currency of as many as 70 years, this helped them to borrow more from treasury bonds. The USA , though not an imperial power, followed the policy of "gunboat" diplomacy, which helped them maintain dollar supremacy in the fiscal markets of Latin America etc.

Now, India cant follow "gunboat" diplomacy, as the USA has done over the years, the main innovation can be done in the FTAs that India has been signing recently, the countries like Oman wanting a FTA with India, must be asked to do a portion of trade (preferably of the largest net trading commodity) in INR, which will increase the net inflows of INR into the country. This can be a start, however, India should also carry out massive defence reforms like - producing more fighter engine jets, stealth submarines, using Indian Navy as a diplomatic arm in troubled Indian waters, increasing nuclear warheads, fulfilling demands like Ahir Regiment/Bengal regiment more reforms like SHANTI bill are necessary in this field. India should also try to make the neighbourhood as its own political "backyard" both in terms of financial & non financial means.

Conclusion -

Later on, India should issue treasury bonds to countries with which India enjoys good relations, possible countries include - Russian Federation, Liechenstein, Afghanistan, Israel, Iran, Ethiopia, Brunei, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Cayman Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Phillipines & South Africa to name a few. India must also try  to attract FDIs from major countries like Singapore & UAE in INR, instead of US$ which would also allow for capital injection at a cheaper rates. Even timely completion of trade routes like IMEEC & INSTC can help the country massively in this area for India.

Finally, the policy of rupee internationalisation and making it as a regional hegemon currency in troubled geopolitical times, must not be a mere footnote and must be a constant policy decisions which also requires strong fiscal & monetary policy coordination, in which India enjoys a historic stronghold. If India, is indeed able to internationalise the rupee & make it even a regional hegemon, it would be considered as a massive comeback for a country which a decade ago launched demonetisation just to battle counterfeits in its economy.