Tamil Nadu Politics - Analysing The Basics of Electoral Complexities

Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Map

Introduction -

Tamil Nadu is perhaps one state in India, which has got a lot of sterotype, even in the evolution of digital era. Its a state that has still not got out of it being an Anti Hindi image in the other parts of the country. Part of this reason is the kind of politics that has been practiced in the state of Tamil Nadu. What started off as a protest by the then, Dravida Kazhagam(today's DMK) against the 1965 NEP introduced by then Congress government, which mandated a 2 language policy across government schools, morphed into a massive Dravidian movement. The Dravidian movement has essentially made caste & language as the core issues of the state, with more emphasis being on the former. 

Additionally, in 1967, India & Tamil Nadu were undergoing major political transitions. It was being governed by the Congress party, which had a lot of infightings between the syndicate & indicate group, which led to the split in the party at the national level. The party had governed, the state for 15 years and it is very normal, in the course of Indian politics that fatigue factor does set in after 2 consecutive terms. Additionally, 1967 elections are called as the first political earthquake of India, where INC failed to win a 2/3rd majority and lost power in 9 big states back then. These ramifications had a long lasting impact on Tamil Nadu politics. This proves that the dravidian majors, though harp on linguistic divisions to further their political agenda, but they do ally with the so called "Hindi heartland" parties, so that, it suits their politics. This has paid them off in the past and will continue to do so in the past.

Brief Electoral Political History & The Value of Cadre  :-

The state of Tamil Nadu has had a very unique history and additionally, has had an even more unique role in the national politics of India. It is one of those states, which has constantly stood against, what it viewed as "infringement" on the federal structure, but has never shied away from sharing power with the national parties. Let it be, the DMK supporting Congress during UPA era or AIADMK siding with BJP during different phases or  AIADMK+Congress combine in 1991 elections or the DMK & BJP aligning in 1998. It has been one state, where the 2 major parties during the times of Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, definitely followed a more pragmatic style of politics, which allowed the state to develop at a rapid rate during the turbulent 1990s and 2000s. 

The growth rates of Tamil Nadu, in this era was consistently above the national average, which made the state as a thriving hub of industrial development. Even today, if the state of Tamil Nadu (since last 57) has been electing the alliances led by DMK & AIADMK, its primarily because of the growth rates that the state has produced. This has to be the starting point from where any political analysis should actually begin, as many a times its the economic factors that tend to influence political behaviours in India. Along with pragmatic politics, also, the Indian constitution on federalism makes the 2 regional parties align with either of the national parties.

In this manner, it must be understood, that by allying with the central governments, the state has produced decent growth rates in the past. Graph - 1 depicts, ruling parties and the number of seats they have won. Additionally, the almost alternate nature of either AIADMK winning or DMK winning the state, shows that TN is a high anti incumbency state.

Ruling Party & The Number of Seats won

Coming to the main players, for most watchers of TN politics, the main players would be limited to DMK & AIADMK. This is true to a large extent, as only these 2 parties have had their chief ministers in the past 58 years, with no other party ever getting to even make their deputy CM in the state. Additionally, both of these parties have sparred over the handling of contentious issues in their electoral history which does make both of them arch rivals. In fact, the AIADMK was formed after the friendship of M Karunanidhi broke up with film star MG Ramachandran, who then went on to become a very successful CM in the state, where party was formed in 1977.

An interesting fact associated with both these parties, has been that, they were able to wipe out the Congress party from the state's political landscape by 1991, which is why now the INC has been relegated to a small player in the state politics.In fact, the Congress has been allying with either of the parties as a junior partner since many decades now, though since 2004, it has remained steadfastly loyal towards DMK. Graph - 2 depicts vote share of AIADMK, Congress & DMK in state legislative elections since 1977. Additionally, it can be seen, that  the meltdown of Congress due to organisational factors, has directly turned into a net-net benefit for DMK & AIADMK. It means, that leaving a few core voters of the Congress, they have not been able to get a lot of new voters in the state.

Vote Shares of AIADMK/DMK/Congress since 1977

This independent cadre and the caste coalition strengths of DMK & AIADMK, is the prime reason that despite the passing away of Jayalalithaa in 2016 & M. Karunanidhi in 2018, these parties have won the lion share of seats in the state and its immensely difficult to expect a Congress type meltdown for any of the 2 parties. Furthemore, the almost static nature of the parties(as shown in the graph) to get their cadre votes and a bigger pool of voters connected to them from decades, is the reason, why these parties will be relevant in some form or the other in the state.

The Value of the 2 leaves symbol for AIADMK

The survival of AIADMK after the happenings of 2016, where there was a split in the party, between VK Sasikala and her former protege turned antagonist Edapaddi Palaniswamy, is worth studying for students of political science. AIADMK historically has been a leadership dependent party with a strong cadre base. The party's history is an exceptionally unique, one, as the AIADMK has seen splits and legal tussles over the 2 leaves symbol. The first split occured in 1989 when T. Janaki(W/o late MGR) and Jayalalithaa, had a legal tussle over the 2 leaves symbol, which ended in favor of the latter. Prime reason being - Jayalalithaa's faction polled 22% votes in total & AIADMK polled 9% votes in the 1991 election. 

The second split occured in 2016-18, where Edapaddi Palaniswamy and TTV Dinakaran(nephew of VK Sasikala) had a legal tussle over the symbol, which was won by the EPS group. The end result, in both these elections were quite the same, where the DMK ended up winning & the faction without the 2 leaves symbol struggled. This shows, that despite a strong leadership, the AIADMK cadre does depend on the 2 leaves symbol to win its core voters & swing voters to win elections in the state. This proves that the visibility of the party is very important in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Graph - 3 proves 2 things - (A) The popularity that Jayalalithaa enjoyed. (B) Now the AIADMK may have transitioned into a cadre based party over a leadership based party. (C) Given, Edapaddi Palaniswamy has been able to almost entirely maintain the vote share of AIADMK despite the split in 2018, it means that, he is definitely popular amongst his supporters.

AIADMK vote shares in splits

In the graph here, one factor that has not been covered is the former CM, O. Paneerselvam, who has served multiple tenures as a stop - gap CM since AIADMK's foundation. Since, he is in a legal tussle right now with AIADMK supremo EPS, how many cadre votes does he have, will be known only in 2026 election, though he is still a part of the NDA as of now. The DMK on the other hand, has never faced any succession questions, as its a party that has a lot of political capital dependent on the Karunanidhi family who can control the DMK cadres. The reason why the AIADMK has struggled whenever it has splitted and the power has transitioned to the DMK, is because, their core voters either go to vote for the DMK or they vote for the split faction. This is something that is consistent, with what we covered in the probabilistic voting theory & MPVT.

Why BJP becomes critical - 

The second national party, in this case has been the BJP, it has allied with both state parties, but has had an aspiration to fight and has tried to grow on its own strength since many years now. It formed the NDA in 2014 & 2024, sans AIADMK or DMK. Though, the BJP won only 1 seat out of 39 in both these  elections, it was able to still poll around 11% votes in 2024 & 3% votes in 2014. However, since these were national elections, the BJP has polled even lesser votes in the Vidhan Sabha elections, primarily as it lacks the candidates & the cadre to grow organically in the state. This has led to the BJP, depending on either AIADMK or DMDK or any other third front party like DMDK of Captain Vijaykanth in 2014. Furthermore, BJP is relatively a very new party in the state, which has had a limited presence over the years. The 2024 lok sabha election was the best ever performance that BJP had in the state on its own strength, this proves that, the efforts of K. Annamalai as the de facto opposition leader from 2021-24(actively) was well recognised by the people. 

However, this existing split in AIADMK between the 3 factions and the presence of PM Narendra Modi in the national politics, makes sure that, BJP becomes the fulcrum point of NDA. The prime reason, being that Narendra Modi is the most popular politician in entire world today and the BJP is the biggest political party in India. Without, Narendra Modi and the BJP, it would be difficult for cadre based politicians like Edapaddi Palaniswamy, TTV Dinakaran & O. Paneerselvam to win elections on their own name. The reason, is that, a cadre based politician will always find it difficult to compete with a politician, who is nationally popular that his party wins in bigger states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat & Madhya Pradesh on his name. The BJP polling 11% in the state 2024 and finishing second place in 12 constituencies with TTV & OPS on their side, is the reason, why the AIADMK had to accept this alliance proposal, as the BJP definitely has some cadre in the state today.

Furthemore, since Indian constitution, mandates, India to be a union of states with a strong central government(even the state's name has to be ratified in Parliament), the BJP becomes by default exceptionally important in the state. Now this can be a main reason, why the DMK keeps on targetting the BJP in terms of narrative issues like NEP or the inactivity of Central government amongst others.

Role of the third front in TN politics -

The third front is perhaps the most unique aspect of the state politics in Tamil Nadu. Over the years, it has been seen that, the whenever there is an emergence of a third front or third major player in TN politics, who has a substantial fanbase or support base, they have polled a lot of votes in such elections. The biggest benefactors have been parties such as NTK by Mr. Seeman, MNM by Kamal Hassan, AIADMK(1977) by MGR and DMDK by Captain Vijaykanth have polled decent number of votes in VS elections. The following graph, shows how many people in TN, do vote for the third front when presented with an opportunity. Cine star Thalapathy Joseph Vijay's TVK has been kept out of this graph, as he is yet to contest an election in the state.

Third front & cine star parties vote

This graph proves 4 things :

1. Initially, the people of TN do vote for the cine star parties but over time, if they align with the dravidian majors, they have tend to lost over their vote shares. Vijaykanth's DMDK is the prime example of the same. DMDK was formed in 2008 as an alternate to both the DMK & ADMK, it ended up polling almost around 8.5 % vote shares, but since then, because, it was not able to keep up its organisation, its vote share has fallen dramatically to almost 2%, which proves again as to why, cadre building in Tamil Nadu is exceptionally critical.

2. MNM of Kamal Hassan is also an example, he contested only 2 elections, 2016 & 2021, saw a rise in vote share but since he lost his own election, he has now effectively called his party to quits. This vote of MNM will most likely transfer to Thalapathy Vijay's TVK in the upcoming 2026 Vidhan Sabha elections. Since, MNM is also a part of UPA as of today.

3. The third party in this entire case is of NTK by Seeman, who is contesting elections consistently as an independent third front. In 2006, he was polling close to 0.5% votes, but his votes have seen a constant & slow rise over past 3 election cycles, implying that, his ultra nationalist Tamil ideology is finding takers in the state. Though, some of these voters maybe more inclined towards the ideology part, but it must be accepted, that Mr. Seeman has built a good enough cadre in the state. This is the prime reason, why experts are predicting, that Thalapthy Vijay's TVK will get a good chunk of NTKs vote share in the state. But, NTK will survive in the state politics, provided they don't align with the dravidian majors.

4. The prime reason, why, cine stars have ventured into TN politics is because of the success that late MG Ramachandran had in the state in 1977. MGR was one of the most popular cine stars of the state back in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. He polled a staggering 40% in the state in 1977 elections.

However, this was due to many factors - (1) The prime opposition Congress, had a big meltdown in the state due to not having local leadership this is something pointed in Graph 2 where vote shares of AIADMK, DMK & Congress are given.(2) MGR had a second rung leadership ready when he had his political debut, which helped his cause even more. (3) MGR was a prominent orator even in the DMK circles of 1967. (4) DMK was battling a 10 year anti incumbency in the state. This is the prime reason, why AIADMK & MGR became relevant in the state. The prime lesson for any cine star flirting with TN politics, is that, they must have a prior background and they must be building over the cadre, along with hoping that, one of the major parties has a massive political meltdown. Also, it proves that, the third front voters in Tamil Nadu are historically those, who have had a negative outlook towards the politics in the state.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Utility of Smaller Political Outfits in the state -

Vote Shares by socio-economics groups - CSDS Lokniti

There is one aspect of politics, that is exceptionally unique to Tamil Nadu politics, which is the presence of caste based outfits & the smaller regional parties in the state.  Now techncially speaking, the major state parties, national parties & even the sub-regional parties have opposed casteism in the state. Even in Tamil media, casteism is looked down upon, but the presence of political parties who get a good chunk of votes from their own castes is exceptionally critical in Tamil Nadu politics. All this with almost a similar voting behaviour by socio-economic groups in the state as attached in the graph in this secion, shows that, caste is one amongst the crucial factors in the state.

The attached tables are about the alliance parties & their current partners. 

Alliance parties and their importance

The alliance partners & caste based outfits like PMK or VCK become exceptionally important in the state, as they have a bunch of core voters who will vote for these small parties any day, additionally, they will vote for the alliance in which their party is an alliance partner of. For example - Take the example of PMK, the core voters & cadres of PMK, voted for BJP in many constituencies in 2024, whereas, in 2021, their votes were transferred to AIADMK. Additionally, in the past, PMK has been a member of DMKs alliance as well, where their voters transferred their votes to either of dravidian parties back then. For starters, PMK is a party that is essentially meant to represent the interests of Vanniyars, their political rise can be traced back to when S. Ramadoss led a protest in 1990s for demanding inclusion of Vanniyars in the OBC quota category. Whereas, the VCK is for representing interests of the Dalit community (majorly Pala dalit community).

The reason, why both the Dravidian majors also cant exclude such parties is primarily due to following reasons:-

(1) Every party in the alliance, will add on their own bunch of core voters, which is critical in a state, where anti incumbency develops very quickly i.e. in 5 years. Additionally, it becomes even more critical in a state, where the 2 parties have to navigate complex caste realities in the state. This pushes the ADMK-DMK to make sure that these parties are included in the alliance.

(2) The presence of these parties becomes even more critical in the state where the cumulative votes polled by ADMK & DMK is around 70%, it implies, the rest 30% voters can actually become the swing voters in the state of Tamil Nadu, a good proportion of whom are a part of the alliances as of now.

Conclusion -

To conclude, the TN politics is more complex that what we may analyse over social media. The presence of other outfits, cadres amongst others is what makes the state politics exceptionally unique and important. Though, this blog does not cover a lot of the other factors in general, but, it has tried to give a different perspective on the politics of TN state. Also, this article has been written at a time when, TN elections are still 1 year away, but the predictions provided in this article, may well turn out to be critical as well. However, predicting politics especially electoral politics in India, is exceptionally difficult as, in politics 1 + 1 is never equal to 2. 

Contenders For India's Vacant Vice President Post

Source - Sarkari tel

On 21 June 2025, India's vice president Jagdeep Dhankar tendered his resignation as the Vice President of India citing health reasons. The resignation was sudden and no one really saw it coming, as the monsoon session of the Parliament had just begun. With his resignation, he became only the third vice president in Indian history after VV Giri & R Venkataraman who resigned in 1970s. With the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankar, a fresh race has begun in the country on who could potentially succeed him as the next VP, as the VP of India is also the chairperson of Rajya Sabha. Additionally, VP also has added responsibilities like having the duty of being India's abroad representative and having a consulting role with the President of India. The post is so critical, that the constitution of India has articles about it from article 63 to 71, which falls under Part 5 of Indian constitution.

Here are the following names who can succeed the outgoing VP Jagdeep Dhankar. Since, the NDA and the ruling BJP have a comfortable majority in the parliament, its common knowledge that the next VP will be from the NDA itself. Also, looking at the track records of the NDA in the past, in relation to the VP election, the BJP during the time of  Narendra Modi & Atal Bihari Vajpayee, have often went ahead with faces who are otherwise popular in the country. The 4 vice presidents of the BJP or the NDA era have been - Shri. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat from Rajasthan who was a popular CM back in 1993-1998, Shri. Jagdeep Dhankar who was popular governor in the politically crucial state of West Bengal and was in media limelight and Shri. Venkaiah Naidu a former National BJP president. The vice presidents picks of NDA have been popular and do enjoy a lot of experience along with the support of the common man, who may not be interested in politics.

Another common theme is that, NDA has usually preferred to pick its VPs from different states and has usually picked Vice presidents, who hail from dominant communities(socio-economic & politically), the above people belong to critical voting blocs like Rajputs, Khammas and Jats, who hold sway in politically important states. This is primarily because the 3 presidential candidates of NDA have been - Shri. APJ Abdul Kalam, Shri. Ram Nath Kovind and incumbent Smt. Droupadi Murmu, who have belonged from the less dominant communities in India. Hence, the probability of NDA continuing its trend of appointing a VP from a dominant community looks highly possible.

Thus in all probabilities, the next Vice President of India must be logically from a dominant community from a politically important state of India.

1. Dr. Harivansh Narayan Singh - Dr. Harivansh is the current Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha, he belongs to the JDU party which is an important constituent of NDA. Dr. Harivansh is an old timer Rajya Sabha MP who has chaired crucial sessions for over the past few years now. He belongs to the Bhumihar community which is dominant in Bihar & Purvanchal and has been a career journalist before transitioning into politics in the older times. Dr. Harivansh is known to be an accessible, affable and a smart politician, who enjoys good ties with PM Narendra Modi.

2. Vasundhara Raje - Vasundhara Raje is perhaps one name which  is not being discussed a lot in the media. She has been a popular and a veteran BJP politician, now actively a member of Indian electoral politics from 1987 onwards. She has been a 2 time Rajasthan CM along with being a former Minister of State during the reign of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999-2004. She comes from the Maratha lineage with a background in Jat and Rajput families, which makes her a very strong contender for the post. Her political experience along with  her being a woman face, a bloc on which PM Modi has tried to constantly nurturesince many years, makes her a strong candidate for this post.

3. Nitish Kumar - Nitish Kumar may end up being one of the darkhorses in the race for the post of Vice President. Its a well known fact that the 9 time CM of Bihar has had Prime Ministerial ambitions from a lot of time, almost since 2009. Nitish Kumar is currently serving as the Bihar CM. Since Nitish Kumar belongs from a Kurmi community(categorized as OBC community) which has influence in, Purvanchal, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Making a tall leader from this community, can actually consolidate votes for the NDA in the upcoming Bihar elections, where the NDA suffered minor setbacks during the Lok Sabha elections, due to the erosion of support from this community. 

Additionally, since the past few elections like in Jharkhand 2024 VS elections or the UP 2024 LS elections, the Kurmi votes have shown signs of drifting away from the BJP, which the BJP would like to consolidate before the next election, one example is the loss of BJP in kurmi dominated seat of Basti/Ambedkar Nagar in UP. Also, having Nitish Kumar as the Vice President, would allow BJP to get its own CM in Bihar, something which many BJP supporters have wanted in the past. Additionally, the Bihar elections 2025 will be a close elections, as the fatigue factor against a 18 year old CM may come into play, which the BJP wont be risking at a time, when they have not won the majority by their own in the Lok Sabha. Furthemore, appointing Nitish Kumar as the VP would make Bihar move into a new generation of politics, where leaders like - Chirag Paswan, Tejasvi Yadav, Prashant Kishore, Nitin Navin, Samrat Choudhary and probably Nishant Kumar, would be critical figures.

4. O. Paneerselvam - O. Paneerselvam also known as OPS can also be a potential contender for the post of Vice President. The reason being that, OPS has served multiple stints as the CM of Tamil Nadu. He is currently locked in a legal tussle with AIADMK supremo EPS over his sacking as the co-coordinator of AIADMK. OPS also belongs from the influential Thevar community and with OPS's appointment  as the Vice President, the BJP would ideally like to reach out to this section of Tamil Nadu voters, who had voted for the NDA sans AIADMK in good numbers in 2024 LS . OPS has also been a politician, who is percieved being close to the central leadership of the BJP. Furthermore, his community is critical swing voter in the Southern Tamil Nadu districts.

Additionally, it would help BJP to rub off the tag of being anti Tamil, which is critical as the state goes to assembly elections next year, with routine anti incumbency on DMK being in play. If the NDA indeeds makes OPS as their Vice President candidate, then, NDA will have a good chance of forming its own government in Tamil Nadu. However, how much probability will that have, also depends on other local factors like the rise of Thalapathy Vijay's TVK, NTK & the coalition dynamics. Also, making a Vice President candidate from the state of Tamil Nadu, will allow BJP to win over the votes of the DMK, as the DMK wont like to risk itself to be seen as Anti Tamil before the VS elections. Making OPS as the VP face, would also allow BJP to expand more aggressively into the Thevar community, in addition to getting access to some of the cadres of AIADMK who are still loyalists of OPS. This would push, BJP for negotiating harder in the VS elections, another demand something which has been raised by the Sangh Parivar in TN.

5. Other Names - In case, the BJP does not want to continue its tradition of picking up powerful Vice Presidents, or want to change their community composition,some other names can be of Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, P. Sreedharan Pillai, CP Rajashekar, Baby Rani Maurya, Arjun Ram Meghwal amongst others.

At the end of day, within a few days time the country will get a new Vice President and the  Rajya Sabha till then will function under the guidance of the Deputy Chairman. Also, the country would want to see a new Vice President as early as possible, as the country can not risk delaying a political appointment, as it can hurt the investment forecasts, trade forecats and economic forecasts of the country, in the longer run. Also, given the BJP and NDA have a tendency to surprise everyone with their choices, maybe a new Vice President from out of the blue can emerge in the country as well.

Understanding The Basics Of Karnataka's Electoral Politics From The Prism Of Economic Electoral Theories

Credits - Pintrest

The Basics Of Probabilistic Voting Theory -

The probabilistic voting theory is one of the cornerstones of microeconomic theory of political economy.The probabilistic voting theory is actually one of the closest theories that comes to explaining electoral politics. The MPVT says that, voters don't always choose the closest candidate, where their choices are affected by biases. Biases, information gaps, charisma, group allegiance, etc. all influence their decisions.This results in a continuous, smooth vote function for each party (instead of sharp cutoffs). In contrast to the sharp equilibria in deterministic models, this results in the existence and uniqueness of equilibria in numerous models. This can be accessed here, along with explanations. 

To put it in absolutely simple language, in downisian electoral politics model which says, that, voters vote for the party closest to their ideology and probabilistic voting model, which basically says that, voters choose their winning candidates based on factors like - ideology, charisma of a candidate, narratives, anti incumbency to name a few. More on the different electoral voting systems can be found in the images attached below, before we proceed onto the case study. The article will use a very limited version of the entire theories.

Basic comparisions

The implications

One of the biggest critcisms towards economists directed by social scientists is about the lack of application in real life, however,during the course of the article on this blog, it would be very much clear that some aspects of the theory definitely holds true in practice in the case of Karnataka.

Introduction On Karnataka-

Karnataka is a state located in India's south-western region. The land area of the Karnataka state is estimated to be around, 191,792 square kilometers. As per the census of 2011,the state of Karnataka has a population of almost around 6 million and has a population contribution of around 5% to a country like India, which has a massive population of 1.4 billion. The coastline of the state is around 320 km. The census of 2011 actually pointed out to the population distribution to being as the follows. The economic contribution of Karnataka sector wise is - Agriculture(16%), Industry(20%) and Services(64%), which will become a very very crucial factor in analysing the political climate of the state in this particular article. Karnataka's per capita income is at Rs. 3,80,906 and the overall poverty rate of the state is at 20.91% , which play an important role in deciding the outcomes of 28 Lok Sabha seats. Karnataka has a bicameral legislature at the state level which means, the state has a legislative assembly and legislative council. India follows a first past the post system and a parliamentary form of democracy, in which every province contributes some seats.

Understanding Karnataka Politics

The 28 Parliamentary Segments of the state 

The graphs have been attached after 3 paragraphs.

The ruling party of Karnataka, today, is Congress and opposition is BJP ,with the third largest party in the state which has polled around 5-6% votes is the JDS(Janata Dal Secular). There are 28 Lok sabha seats in the state. All the Lok Sabha parliamentary constituencies in Karnataka have 8 vidhan sabha segments in it. The state of Karnataka though has some unique political preferences which make them unique, just like every other Indian state.

In the province or state level election, Congress party in the state has generally won around 38% of the vote share, throughout decades , whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party since its rise in the late 1990s has consistently won around 36% vote share, except the 2013 as shown in graph number 2, for which a prime reason was the tall & respected leader BS Yedyurappa left the BJP and formed the Karnataka Janata Paksha which subsequently merged with BJP in 2014. However, the most interesting factor is that, even before the Modi wave in 2014, from 2004-14, the BJPs vote share in the Lok Sabha elections is consistently hovering between 40-42% in the national level election and the state level election has tended to reduce. 

Now, when, the numbers in vote share are only compared(though its not the gratest of indicators to use in a FPTP system), at the state level elections, Congress has tended to surge ahead while BJP has stayed back, which actually provides a justification as to why BJP-Karnataka has never won a simple majority on its own in the state. However, when the national level figures, have been compared, it can be easily and aptly seen that, Karnataka has always preferred the BJP over the Congress, which is also prevalent in the electoral history of the state, as the BJP has consistently won at least 17 seats out of 28 in the state. Meanwhile, Congress's vote shares have declined in this time frame in the Lok Sabha elections if seen in the first graph.

Swarajya - Congress & JDS Vote Share (Graph 1)

We can see, that Congress party is a major dominant party in Karnataka, with a much consistent vote share in both parliamentary and state elections, which is primarily due to the first movers advantage they had in the 1951-1967 period, the advent of tall leaders like Devaraj Urs, SM Krishna, S. Nijalingappa, Veerendra Patil amongst others led the party during the phase where Congress was mostly the sole ruling party in the center and the leaders bought in different sections of the society, which strengthened them on the ground level. The advent of strongmen leaders continued in the Congress, with the further rise of DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. 

The third party which is completely underrated in most of the analysis is the Janata Dal (Secular) of the former prime minister of India, HD Dewe Gowda. It can be seen, from the first graph that, the JDS is a declining but still a potent force as it polls around 10% vote share in the state. Their criticality can be simply understood by 2 factors of - When, the difference between 2 major parties is not even in double digits any political person with a double digit vote share can flip the results as India follows a FPTP system, which in simple terms says, that anyone who has more votes can win the election in such a case, whose votes is the third party actually taking becomes interesting to see. The second factor, as to why, JDS is important for the state politics can be gauged by the fact that, in 2019, the Congress-JDS combine took on the BJP and in 2024, the JDS-BJP combine took on the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections.  

But, JDS has never contested an assembly election with either of them, as maybe they would be vary of the future existence of their party. The JDS party is a technically a Pan-Karnataka party, but, its majority of the legislators have come from the Old Mysore Region and Central Karnataka which account for almost 100 Vidhan sabha seats out of 228 Vidhan Sabha seats, whereas Lok Sabha seats are almost around 12/28, which makes them critical in the fortunes of the state politics. So, even, JDS is a major powerplayer in the state and even if they are not major players in the national politics, but their fortunes can change a lot of dynamics.

BJPs vote share in the state (Graph-2)

In fact, as per many political observers of India, the fall of JDS in Karnataka and the rise of BJP in Karnataka are correlated, as both of these parties were formed on anti Congress planks. Even, the history of both of these parties are correlated, as, both of them came in from the now defunct Janata Party(merged with the BJP in 2013) which was formed in the aftermath of the emergency imposition by Indira Gandhi in 1975. The Janata Dal Secular, itself is a faction of the various Janata Dal mergers and acquisitions that occured in Karnataka over the years, with the most significant one being the breakaway faction of Janata Dal which merged with the BJP in 1996 which was engineered by former CM Ramakrishna Hegde. The interesting history of JDS can be accessed here.

Basic Takeaways -

The first graph is of the congress-JDS vote share and second graph is of BJPs vote share. 

The overall picture as to how the, electoral voting theories are applicable in Karnataka are based on 3 results -

1. The Downisian Electoral Voting which says, that, people vote on particular ideologies is true in the case, which has been proven via the incredibly consistent vote shares of both the parties.

2. The MPVT which explains people's biases, which explains as to why the extra 3-4% voter prefers BJP over Congress in the Lok Sabha election, some reasons which would be explored under the article.

The Wonderful Tale Of Karavalli Karnataka

1. Karavalli Karnataka : This region of the state has given legends like Rani Abbaka Chowta of Ullal along with being host to some of the biggest Hindu cultural iconic sites in India namely, the Kukke Subramanya Temple, Udupi SriKrishna Temple, Shravanabelagola, Dharmasthala, Hornadu, Shringeri amongst others. In fact, Adi Shankaracharya set up one mattha of Hinduism in Shringeri, which was meant for promotion of Hinduism. Karavalli Karnataka also has a lot of places of Christian, Jaina and Muslim importance like - Rosario Cathedral, Infant Jesus Shrine, Ullal Dargah amongst others. This is called as the coastal belt of Karnataka. 

The coastal belt of Karnataka is called as the most politically charged region of the state. The region has 3 lok sabha seats of - Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi - Chikamaguluru. Currently, all these 3 seats are being represented by Bharatiya Janata Party consistently from the past 3 elections. The major communities in this part are namely, Bunts, Bilavas, Mogaveeras, Vokkaligas, Lingayats, Kurubas, Brahmins, Jains, Muslims & various artisan and fishing communities, amongst others who are also crucial.

The 3 coastal districts of Karnataka

One interesting seat, worth analysing, which fits perfectly in the probabilistic voting theory is of Dakshina Kannada, though every other seat can also satisfy the theory to an extent. Dakshina Kannada has Mangalore city in it, which coincidentally is the second largest contributor to Karnataka's state GSDP, it actually accounts for Rs. 1.25 lakh crore in FY-2023 as per the state economic survey and contributes to 5.5% of the state's GSDP. This urban nature of the seat, is a prime reason, why the Bharatiya Janata Party, has won from this seat, almost consistently since 1989. This also fits right into the given model of probabilistic voting theory.

For starters, Bharatiya Janata Party, before the Modi era of 2014 was called as a majorly urban party in the country, which was also true till an extent for Karnataka, though there is ample number of evidences like BJP winning predominantly rural seats in the state. 

Dakshina Kannada also has a very strong ideological presence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(BJPs ideological mentor) in fact the current Secretary General(Organisation)  of BJP is BL Santosh, who has grown  up from the current RSS system in this particular region. Along with it, the BJP has had a battery of leaders from this seat in the past, which included the former state BJP president of Karnataka BJP Naleen Kumar Kateel, the current MP Captain Brijesh Chowta, former CM DV Sadananda Gowda who have kept the BJP in a dominant position in this place.

The same story can be said about the other 2 seats namely, Uttara Kannada and Udupi Chikamaguluru, in which BJP had leaders like, U. Chittaranjan, Anant Kumar Hegde who have won this seat for BJP very consistently since years.

Hence, it can be said, that probabilistic voting theory is absolutely perfect in the Coastal belt of the state, as candidate loyalty along with ideological base and organisational strengths have influenced the results to be in favour of BJP.

Another factor, that gets, counted in here, is that, the region has given BJP its Member of Parliaments, before other parts of Karnataka started moving towards the BJP in 1999, which was partly due to the Hubli Idgah Maidan Issue and the Ram Janmabhoomi Andolan amongst other factors, which are mentioned above. 

Identity Politics in Karavalli Karnataka :

The coastal belt of Karnataka has a very subtle and a different composition which plays a crucial role in their politics. The caste composition of  these areas is a mixture of various social groups like - the socially dominant Bunts, the Bilava OBC group, Brahmins who have traditionally been BJP supporters. Muslims & multiple obc groups who have traditionally been Congress supporters in the past. 

Though on a general scale in Karnataka, major groups like - Brahmins have supported BJP, Lingayats have supported BJP, Bunts have supported BJP, Left Hand Madiga Dalits have supported BJP, OBC communities like and a good section of Nayaka Valamiki Community(found in Kalyana Karnataka, classified as ST)have supported BJP.

Though, none of the issues in any of these communities are the same and neither is their support completely identical. Panchamashali Lingayats(a sub sect of Lingayats) have agitated against the BJP when a powerful BJP minister from Kalyan Karnataka, named Murgesh Nirani who was sacked from his post in the early 2020s.

The general community matrix of Karnataka, as per NSSO 2015

The coastal belt of Karnataka has also been a hotspot for communal tensions with both the dominant parties blaming each other for the various number of communal instances (like the brutal murders of  Prashant Poojary& Muhammad Fazil, who belonged to Sangh Parivar{BJP} & Congress respectively) have occured in this region.

Along with these issues, there are other issues which impact voter behaviour which are - Tulu language identity, infra decline, economic neglect and lack of preserving the cultural identity of this particular region. All these issues are crucial during narrative building, which becomes part of MPVT.

Also anti-incumbency  onto the candidate in these places is always high, which was seen in the election result of a Vidhan Sabha segment named Puttur seat, where the political sidelining of Arun Putilla(a tulu hindutva activist) by the BJP, ended up contesting as an independent, which  led to the Congress party winning the seat which is otherwise considered a BJP stronghold.

This validates the MPVT theory discussed before and even the Downisian electoral theory which says, that, if an ideologically inclined voter does not get his/her choice of candidate, bias kicks in and they may vote for the other candidate. The case of Puttur where, Mr. Ashok Rai won proves this case. Picture attached below for reference.

Puttur Vidhan Sabha result. The independent candidate who was a ex-BJP leader ended up denting his own party.

However, despite such a polarized state of electoral politics, the Mangalore Port is the 7th largest seaport in India and the port handles 75% of India's cashew & timer exports, along with hosting major companies like Cochin Shipyard, KIOCL and BPCL to name a few, which proves the single peakedness theory true, which says that, despite parties with diverse ideologies coming to power in the state, they would converge to a median level of policy which becomes indifferent to ideologies.

Gender & Nepotism, its link with electoral theories:-

The sex ratio of the Karnataka state is at 973 females per 1000 men,the median in the country was at 943 as per the census 2011 , which partly to an extent shows the impact of the educational & women-oriented  reforms enacted by the Wodeyar Dynasty especially during the reign of Nalawadi Krishnaraja Wodeyar whose reign lasted from 1919-1939, in this case, Karnataka had a headstart where even in 1951 Census whereas, Karnataka's sex ratio was 946.  This author had authored an article on the king which can be accessed here.

As per the census 2011, the urban population in the state of Karnataka is estimated to be around 38% whereas the rural population of the state of almost around 61.33%. The interesting part is that, the rural sex ratio as per the census 2011 is estimated to be around 978 which is significantly higher than their urban sex ratio, this partly explains why, the Karnataka Congress's promise of Gruha Laxmi scheme promising a cash incentive of Rs. 2000 had a major impact on the voting patterns in the more rural regions of Kalyana Karnataka (6 Lok Sabha seats of Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Raichur and Gulbarga) in the 2023 election, where Congress party ended up winning around 61% of the seats on the back of this promise. Also, since the rural poverty in Karnataka is at a whopping 24.63%, this also partly explains why the Gruha Laxmi scheme became a big gamechanger in the state elections. 

This announcement comes in as a bias in the formula seen before which essentially appealed to a particular segment of women in Karnataka. This particular issue is still prevalent in Karnataka, as the former Prime Minister of India and the JDS supremo, HD Dewe Gowda also validated this point in December 2024, in his news byte. Along with the scheme itself landing in multiple troubles with accusations of corruption etc. also flowing in the same from the opposition BJP.

Though, its a very oversimplified analysis, even with respect to Kalyana Karnataka, because during this particular elections other factors like - The Loss of Lingayat votes from BJP, the formation of Gali Janardhan Reddy's(former BJP minister in Karnataka) now defunct Kalyana Karnataka Rajya Paksha, strong local candidates in Congress, demographics favouring the Congress, which again proves that, probabilistic voting theory can actually be possible when all the factors align and can influence results.

It is very interesting to observe that, though, women are economically empowered in Karnataka, but, in the past 4 Lok Sabha(Parliamentary) elections since, 2009, there have been very few elected woman MPs  who have won namely - Shobha Karandlaje(3 time MP, 2 time from Udupi-Chikamagulur and 1 time from Bengaluru North representing BJP), Prabha Mallikarjun (1st time MP),J Shanta (Representing BJP and 1 time MP from Bellary in 2009, she switched over to YSRCP in 2024) and  Priyanka Jarkiholi (Representing Congress and 1 time MP)

The same can be said about the assembly level women leadership, which is limited to leaders like Laxmi Hebbalkar from Congress who is successful in state politics. At least, amongst the woman member of parliaments, it can be seen that these leaders represent 2 diverse groups which are - self made leaders or  relatives of already powerful ministers. The latter is a particular & a peculiar factor in the context of Karnataka politics, which can be seen in the family lineages of multiple top political figures of the state, who are in the age group of 25-50.

Some of the prominent politicians in Karnataka like - Yathindra Siddaramaiah,BY Vijayendra, DK Suresh, Priyank Kharge, Nikhil Kumaraswamy , HD Revanna, Tejasvi Surya, Jarkiholi family & Aravind Bellad amongst others who are leaders from big political families.

The reason, why this phenomenon maybe true in case of Karnataka is because of the high per capita income which actually leads to a lot of expenditure in politics as a politician has a lot of incentive to get the votes of the swing voter in the state. This becomes true even in the case of Karnataka as since the 1990s, the state has never seen an incumbent bounce back to power.

This shows that the role of the swing voter is exceptionally critical in the state of Karnataka, which to an extent captures why a lot of corruption also occurs in the state politics. This particular part is a hunch of the author, which can be critiqued or questioned. Also, another reason why many prominent and high achievers politicians are from families is maybe, because of social reasons like - lifestyle of a politician, seeing the son as the heir apparent to the parent's political legacy, all factors which get captured the other factors of the theory, given in the introduction.

Conclusion

The article tries to capture the essence of Karnataka politics at a very nuanced and data based manner, in a non-partisan manner, as the main agenda of this article is to apply a nuanced economic electoral theory to a situations in real life electoral politics.

This is the prime reason, why the political history of the state cant be covered in a blog article and it is the prime reason why the politics of other regions, the caste based issues, political history of individual leaders, center-state relations etc. have not been covered in detail  in the article by the author. Even a lot of theories have been over-simplified which is not ideal, which is why this series can shall continue on this blog with respect to each and every region cum state of India, which later on maybe extended to domestic politics of other countries.

Disclaimer:-

Any misrepresentation, any misunderstanding, any factual error & any wrong conclusion is strongly regretted. 

Reviewing Indian Electoral Politics Results - 2024 | A Short Summary

Courtesy- Medium

Year 2024 has been historic for India in many ways. India won its first ICC tournament after a gap of 11 years. India became one of the world’s fastest growing economies in the year 2024, which is also a fantastic achievement. But if there is one topic that dominated the psyche of a middle- class Indian was electoral politics. The country saw a long drawn electoral process for the Lok Sabha and various Assembly elections, which proved almost all the pollsters wrong. The country also saw some of the most remarkable assembly elections in recent history in states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh which all threw mandates which surprised the country.

Lok Sabha Elections -

The biggest election of them all was the Lok Sabha election 2024. Though the BJP started off the campaign well with the “Abki Baar 400 Paar” slogan, it soon lost steam when due to a routine 10 year anti incumbency, voter fatigue, poor communication, multiple narratives like rural distress/caste based issues took centrestage, some poor local candidates and statements of a few BJP leaders costed PM Narendra  Modi a majority. A complacent voter and cadre, costed BJP the majority, where it won 240 seats, 34 less than a simple majority. This compiled with some extremely good electoral management by parties like SP, Congress, DMK, TMC gave one of the biggest unpredicted electoral verdicts in the country. Their startegy of making the election hyper local paid off in the states of UP, TN, Haryana, Rajasthan and West Bengal. The states of Uttar Pradesh (-31), Maharashtra(-14), West Bengal(-6) and Rajasthan(-11), saw a loss of over 62 seats for the BJP, where all these factors played a crucial role. The Lok Sabha election also sprang up various surprises, like the kingmakers role to Nitish Kumar of JDU and Chandrababu Naidu of TDP, which none saw it coming, who won 16 and 12 seats respectively. 

This Lok Sabha elections again reinforced the role of the Rashtriya Syamsevak Sangh being pivotal to the BJPs electoral agenda, along with strengthening the importance of good candidate selection in routine anti incumbency states like Uttar Pradesh, where seats like Barabanki are high anti-incumbency seats where there have been few examples of the sitting MP again winning back their seat. The election surprisingly also reduced the importance of Uttar Pradesh in the national politics, as this was the first time that an alliance had formed the government in the centre without winning majority in UP. Worse, the Samajwadi Party which won 37 seats in UP, did not even achieve the post of leader of opposition in the country, which is extremely rare in Indian politics.

This Lok Sabha election also underpinned the popularity of PM Narendra Modi, as it was the first time after 1962 that a politician in the country had taken oath as a PM for 3 straight times. The success of the NDA in states of North East and some degree of improved political presence in Southern Indian states, are attributed to PM Modi by most of experts & politicians. Majority of the BJP voters, again voted for Narendra Modi which is visible via the party’s vote share of 36%.The popularity of PM Modi was further reinforced as NDA won handsomely in states which has a higher urban population like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Assam, Delhi etc. Perhaps, the only states with a high urban population which did not win handsomely was Maharashtra and Haryana, which was primarily due to intense caste-based polarization and rural distress in these states. This election restated the importance of urban- rural divide in the country, with rural economic distress being a major contributing factor which reduced the number of seats for India’s largest political party.

Assembly Elections

Post the Lok Sabha electoral results, most of the media channels had projected a positive electoral upswing for the fortunes of INC, the grand old party. UPA was buoyant with its success of winning 232 seats and a mini Congress revival of winning 99 seats in the 2024 LS elections, the most interesting part was that Congress party won substantial seats in Haryana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra where it had struggled to open its account in the previous 2 national elections. Compounding the problems for the ruling party, BJP in these states of Haryana and Maharashtra, there was a strong degree of anti incumbency in the states, deflated support base which made the Congress and the UPA have a clear edge over the NDA in both these politically crucial states.

Though Haryana, is a small state with only 90 vidhan sabha seats and 10 lok sabha seats, the state has been extremely politically active since, its formation in 1960s. It has given tall leaders like the 3 Lals, who have played a massive role in India's internal security during the period from 1970-85. Devi Lal Chautala had gone onto become the Deputy PM of the country in 1989. Its the state which is considered as one of the most vocal and patriotic states, where every Vidhan Sabha seat has a very unique history. For example- After 55 years, the Bhajanlal family of now BJP leader, Kuldeep Bishnoi, lost its "family bastion" of Adampur. 

However, the biggest shock to the country and to the media came in the form of the electoral results in Haryana. The entire “mahaul” was that the Congress led by Bhupinder Hooda was winning the elections comfortably, but with some smart electoral micro management, the change in chief ministership from ML Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini and a spirited voter led the BJP to one of the most surprising electoral comebacks in recent history. The BJP shocked everyone by winning 48 seats and the Congress fumbled at 37 seats. BJP was able to increase its vote share in Haryana to 40% and form the government for third time after decades. The reason why this electoral victory was more special for the BJP was that it came in the backdrop of Agniveer protests, long-drawn farmer protests and a state unit which was looking struggling (at least superficially). The Haryana victory by BJP was even more significant because at least till 9:20 AM IST, the Congress had a decisive lead in counting and then the entire matter flipped, in a matter of 4 hours, the entire electoral mood of the nation changed in a way none expected.

Maharashtra is also one of the states which is a politically crucial state, not only due to its outsized influence in the Indian economy, but its the state which connects the mainstream North India to the Southern India, via Deccan and has multiple politically influentially cultures which have a decent degree of influence in certain parts of neighbouring states like Karnataka(specifically Belgavi, Dharwad), Telangana(specifically Nizamabad, Adilabad), MP, Gujarat(certain districts of South Gujarat), Goa, MP and Chattisgarh(certain districts of South Chattisgarh). The state has give some of the biggest political legends known to the country in the past 120 years like Dr. BR Ambedkar, Jyotiba Phule, Bal Gangadhar Tilak, Veer Savarkar, Chattrapati Shahu Maharaj, Keshav Baliram Hegdewar, Balasaheb Thackeray, the Pawar family, who have a different political aura among different sections of the society in the entire country today. Even, PV Narasimha Rao was elected from Ramtek Lok Sabha once, in his long political career. The election mandate of Maharashtra definitely was on expected lines where most of opinion polls/exit polls had predicted a NDA victory, due to factors like better alliance coordination/pro - Hindu sentiment/strong local leadership/welfare schemes etc. The scale of victory was unimaginable as the state elections turned out to be one of the most one sided elections in recent history. The BJP led Mahayuti won 235/288 seats and clean swept regions of Vidarbha,West Maharashtra, North Maharashtra and Konkan. The BJP itself lodged a strike rate of 91% with the other Mahayuti partners Shiv Sena & NCP winning 57 & 41 seats respectively, with impressive strike rates of more than 70% each.

The next big comeback was perhaps by Chandrababu Naidu who returned as the CM of AP after being written off by most of the political pundits, he not only returned as the CM but became the second biggest partner in NDA after BJP. He led the NDA Kutami to a landslide win of 161/175 in Andhra Pradesh, against a politcally strong satrap in YS Jagan Mohan Reddy of YSRCP. The political relevance of Telugu states into national politics is one of the stories which has been ignored majority of the times by a larger section of the country. The states have produced Pingali Venkayya, who designed the Indian flag. The states have produced leaders like, PV Narasimha Rao, Venkaiah Naidu,NT Rama Rao,YS Rajashekara Reddy,Nara Chandrababu Naidu, Kasu Brahmanand Reddy, Marri Chenna Reddy, Neelam Sanjiva Reddy, Poti Sriramulu and Konda Ranga Reddy, who have politically influenced the country in many phases across years. The states have produced multiple home ministers for the country till date. These are perhaps the only states where every ideology in India has found takers, from sub-regionalistic ideologies, to centrist ideologies, to Hindutva ideas, communist ideologies, social justice ideas to name a few. The telugu states are perhaps the only states till date to maintain a record of electing the same alliance/party government in both center and state. These are the states, which have most of the times taken the politically perfect decision. For example - NDA won 29/42 seats in both Telugu states of Telangana & Andhra Pradesh, formed the government in 2024. In 2009, when Congress won majority of the seats, it formed the UPA govt. in the center. 

Remarkable Political Stars Of The Year - 

This year will perhaps be remembered as the year of comebacks by certain politicians, Devendra Fadnavis returned as the CM of Maharashtra for his third term after having an eventful 5 year term from 2019 – 24, which saw him become a CM for 3 days, a LoP for 2.5 years and a Deputy CM for 2.5 years.Nayab Singh Saini was the most underrated politician this year as he led the BJP to a win in Haryana, where seemingly most of the odds were stacked against him and BJP. 

The electoral comebacks of Omar Abdullah & Hemant Soren in Jharkhand- Jammu Kashmir nearly on their own strengths also gave a lot to cheer for the cadres of these parties. The 37 seat win by Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh also proved the electoral mettle of Akhilesh Yadav. The victories by these 3 parties can also be a good case study for persons interested into politics.

This year, also saw the rapid rise of leaders like, Pawan Kalyan who after 10 years since Jana Sena’s formation, won all the seats he contested with 100% strike rate. His incredible transformation from a movie power star to become one of the biggest voices for the Hindutva cause in Southern India is one which be worth watching out for. The political rebirth of Chirag Paswan after losing his party LJP to his uncle in 2021 by winning all his allocated Lok Sabha seats, is a huge achievement. There were many more such stories in this year like BJPs victory in Odisha which ended the 24 year rule of Naveen Patnaik led Biju Janata Dal, or rise of political leaders like Jairam Mahato in Jharkhand, Rashid Engineer in J&K, a different turn in Punjab's electoral situations, rise of the Bharat Adivasi Party as a potent electoral force in Rajasthan, the influence of parties like RLD/SBSP/BVA/ MNS etc. The TMC's one sided victory in WB LS-2024 elections, are some of the topics which should be included in various case study analysis in today's day & time.

Conclusion-

To conclude, this was the year where the Indian electorate proved the conventional notions of Indian electoral politics wrong. This year will go down as one of the most significant political years which can shape the destiny of India. Overall, the year would be remembered as the one which will be most remembered by the students of political science for many years to come.

Role of UNSC in securing human rights with reference to case studies

 

UNSC meet: courtesy Current Affairs Adda 24/7

Abstract:

The research paper titled as Role of UNSC in securing Human rights with respect to case studies tries to cover the successes & failures of UNSC in different parts of the globe with the very specific focus on human rights protection. The United Nations Security Council is the most important part of the UN with enormous political clout over its member states. The intervention of UNSC in specific countries has changed the history of many countries forever.

The paper adopts an evidence based approach to also prove the shortcomings of the UNSC & how it can improve its track record on the same. The paper adopts a pragmatic, optimistic opinion about the UNSC role in securing human rights. The paper concludes that UNSC has to improve its structural issues to ensure that enough is done to protect the human rights of people.

1. Introduction:

Human rights refers to rights that is given to everyone irrespective of seeing their gender,class etc. Basic human rights are given to everyone the only reason being that they are humans is fine to make them entitled towards human rights in the world. The human rights in the world are under constant threat from multiple forces which can be both from the state & non state level actors.

The United Nations was formed in 1945 after the world saw one of the most catastrophic conflict in the form of world war 3 which killed up to 8 million people according to independent surveys, along with countless instances of human rights violations in the form of bodily crimes on women, targeting killings of global minorities, famines that were triggered deliberately in many parts of the world by imperial powers to name a few along the use of nuclear weapons, to prevent such conflicts in the future the institution named as United Nations was formed on 24 October, 1945 for the dual objectives to ensure that world peace is maintained & human rights is protected in each & every country. United Nations has a lot of verticals like UNHRC, UNSC which have been tasked with specific tasks. UN was formed after the league of nations which failed to protect human rights in the worldwide spectrum & instead fuelled the biggest onslaught on human dignity in the world war 2 due to its complacent decisions.(Why did league of nations fail. Here are some answers?,History on the net).

The UNSC is the most powerful body politic of UN as it looks up for world peace in the world which affects the human rights directly. . Human rights are also inalienable, meaning that the state may not withdraw any individual’s human rights except under conditions prescribed by the rule of law or (for some rights only) in situations of national emergency.(Human security: undermining human rights, Rhoda-E- Hasmann, February 2012)

The UNSC is perhaps one of the oldest bodies of the UN. It was incorporated in the United nations the day when UN was formed. The UNSC is headquartered in New York, USA. The presidency of UNSC unlike other bodies of UN is, rotatory in nature where every member state of the UNSC gets to chair the UNSC meet for every month, this type of presidency is called as rotational presidency. The UNSC has 15 members, 5 of whom are permanent, these nations are P5 nations namely, China-France-UK-USA-Russia, the other 10 are on a rotational basis & are elected by the UN general assembly. The UNSC is entrusted with protecting human rights in the member states.

2. UNSC & Human Rights:

The UN Has adopted human rights charters namely ICESCR(International convention on economics, social & cultural rights)was adopted by UN General Assembly on December 16,1966 but was implemented in the year 1976. The ICESCR has stated that all the people have the right for self-determination. Article 1 of the ICESCR states everyone has the right to self determination. The Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights contains various Articles which provide recognition for the right to work according to Article. 6. The ICESCR has no provisions for interpretation and application.(IIGL : Paper 4 textbook,16:17:18). The international human rights legal regime precedes the discourse on human security by over forty years. Human rights were originally enshrined in the UN International Bill of Rights, which consists of the1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), the 1966. International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), and the 1966 International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). Some scholars argue that there is no evidence that when a state signs a human rights treaty, its actual human rights performance improves which makes the role of UNSC even more important as it covers most of the countries in its ambit & its resolutions passed can act as a valve which creates pressure on states if not binding. (Human security: undermining human rights, Rhoda-E- Hasmann,February 2012)

The UNSC can pass resolutions it seems that are in violations of the above-mentioned humanitarian laws. The UNSC has so far passed 2672 resolutions. The UNSC is responsible for maintaining the security of the world, it is but obvious to understand that the human security is directly a necessity to maintain the human rights across the globe. The number of threats facing human security & rights is enormous, some of the prominent ones are: drug abuse, narcoterrorism, ideological terrorism, fundamentalism, wars between 2 countries & climate change. (Human security: undermining human rights, Rhoda-E- Hasmann, February 2012)

Ideological terrorism & fundamentalism can take away the lives of many people at once.Many countries have become a target of fundamentalism & terrorism, some terror attacks that shook humanity were of: Paris terror attack which claimed lives of many people, needless to say that, right to life is the most important right as without it the rest of the rights become null & void, the Pulwama suicide attack on a CRPF convoy also shook the conscience of the world which led to India conducting targeted air strikes in Balakot afterwards, the Mumbai terror attacks which directly killed civilians in Mumbai in 2008 is also a stark remainder of the human rights violations that can come up with the deadly mix of fundamentalism & terrorism. Along with the pain & agony created by terror attacks, many a times, it also provokes harsh reaction by the victims which can lead to a ripple effect which results in more human rights violations, the best example in this regard can be of perhaps of the 9/11 attacks on USA where Al-Qaeda terrorists bombed 3 buildings which killed 2,997 people, this led the USA administrations of Bush & Obama respectively to launch a manhunt in Afghanistan & many more countries which led to arrests of people who may not be involved in the attacks, it also led to formation of Guantanamo Bay prison which was denied entry even to the UN team by the United states in early 2010’s, it also led to USA invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 which created a mess in Afghanistan in the long run which claimed lives of thousands of Afghan civilians, emerging of Afghanistan as a prominent route for narcotics smuggling & the subsequent loss of education rights for afghani women, the literacy rate in Afghanistan today stands at 37.8% according to World Bank. This explanation is also enough to tell that how UNSC responds to terrorism of all kinds is important for securing human rights in different parts of globe. This is precisely the reason why counter terrorism is discussed in forums meant only for human rights.(Commissioner of human rights, ORF, World bank)

The UNSC interventions have a decent track record in terms of both successes & failures.The UNSC has passed about 2672 resolutions till date on subjects of humanitarian intervention where required.(UNSC.com). Since, the resolutions by the UNSC are the last resort by the countries to intervene in disputes, the success of UNSC measures will be done objectively through this parameter in this research article.

3. Positive case studies where UNSC resolutions helped in protecting human rights

Given the complex nature of the UNSC where 5 nations are permanent along with being veto power i.e. where if one of the 5 nations disagree with the UNSC resolution then the resolution becomes null &; void, many experts believe that the veto power being in hands of countries which are in direct competition with each other over resources in different world, has delayed the implementation of some important UNSC resolutions like those related to Russia-Ukraine war & protecting of human rights have been stalled repeatedly due to the veto power. The history has shown that veto power is a tool that P5 nations use to keep their diplomatic relations with countries intact. For example: China has vetoed UNSC resolutions to declare certain Pakistani individuals as global terrorists multiple times from the decade of 2014-18, to build on strong China-Pakistan ties which point has been argued by critics. (Livemint).Despite such structural limitations the UNSC has converged on many issues of importance, like the resolutions of UNSC for cote d’ivorie or ivory coast in the African continent when the nation had undergone a civil war rising from political instability which led to the rebel forces to control significant tracts of land in Ivory Coast, it is said that the involvement of France in this entire issue worsened the situation, the French directly deployed their troops in the region, the rebels had seized parts of west ivory coast.The country was divided into half with rival factions controlling east & west respectively. There were 2 civil wars that happened in Cote d’Ivorie,mainly in 2004 & 2010 which killed about 3000 civilians & had created 30,000 refugees, this was quickly accelerating into a humanitarian crisis, the UNSC noting the extent of violence quickly swung into action by passing UNSC resolution 1528 which authorized the deployment of UNOCI. Over 6000 UN peacekeeping forces in 2004 & increased to 11,292 in 2011.Despite, France & China being on the opposite sides of the issue, the UNSC was able to maneouvre the resolution & ensure that the resolution is passed, the UN resolution gave quick results in Ivory coast with about 70,000 insurgents surrendering within 2 years getting reintegrated into the society, 2 presidential elections with opposition was conducted for the first time in Ivory coast with an active opposition in a peaceful environment, about 250,000 refugees returned by 2016 to their homeland within 6 years ofUN intervention. 

The UN also strengthened National commission for human rights decreased human rights violations, it also supported social cohesion with 1000 impact projects & bought down communal sensitive areas by around 80%.The case of ivory coast proves that UNSC can be an effective tool for protection of human rights. Today, Cote d’Ivorie is implementing SDG’s with full vigour in consultation with many countries. Within 8 years, the situation has stabilized in Ivory coast with help of UN Peacekeeping forces which was authorized by the UNSC where the ivory coast administration is present in all 108 divisions of the nation. The experiment of Ivory coast by UNSC proves that it is an effective player in protecting human rights.

4. Failures of UNSC in protecting human rights

Where there are successes there are also equal number of failures of the UNSC as a watchdog of human rights protector. The USA invasion of Iraq & Afghanistan were done by keeping the UNSC at ransom &  many a times without consultation though there were resolutions were tabled. UNSC resolution 678 which gave Iraq the warning to withdraw their troops from Kuwait till the January 1991 & had authorized the countries especially the NATO ones to go ahead the invasion. The NATO invaded Iraq in 1991 & defeated the Iraqi forces within no time, it is also called as A computer war where the television viewers were seeing the destruction of Iraqi forces on a live TV. 

The NATO forces were overwhelmingly American with estimates saying that 75-80% of the NATO forces soldiers were Americans, in fact the NATO forces were led by Norman Schwarfmann. The fallouts of Iraq war after the US war has led to debate the success & the UNSC action in this regard, the number of causalities in Iraq war was estimated to be more than 50,000 civilians, the bridge of death, connecting Kufra to Basra was also bombed by USA led NATO forces, the bridge was being used by the defeated Iraqi forces to retreat, many human rights activists also called this as a war of humanity.

The action of USA led forces in Iraq internally displaced millions of people & killed many people. The same UNSC role is in doubt when USA unilaterally invaded Iraq on the account of finding WMD’s & executed Saddam Hussein in the 2000’s, the UNSC was caught in a shock when this invasion/operation took place. The UNSC was not able to pass any resolution against this unilateral action by the USA,given the USA has a veto power. The UNSC actions in Iraq also cause many doubts in the minds of security advisors, as the country’s economy was bought to ruins with 2 wars in 12 years, it led to displacement of a government, along with giving rise to fundamentalism & killing lakhs of soldiers, denying women the right to education, creating refugees in Middle east & Europe of which repercussions are being felt today along with creation of terrorism in the entire world. 

UNSC sanctions related to economy also had a devastating impact on the lives of Iraqi civilians. Had the UNSC structure been more democratic , it would have been possible that the Iraqi civilians would have also enjoyed the fruits of development. The 2 Iraqi wars along with the catastrophic humanitarian situation that arised are considered as a failure of UNSC in protecting human rights.

5. Conclusion

From the research article its clear that like every institution, UNSC also has its own failures & successes in the field of protecting human rights. The failures have arised mainly due to the permanent veto power structure which is given to nations who have enforced regime changes, invaded countries, have serious disagreements between them, have a history of brutal colonial power & have done little for the implementation of the SDG’s & are also viewed with a skeptical lens in their own neighbourhood & in world at large. The UNSC must wake up to this failure and give the veto power to more responsible nations to ensure that it can be the human rights protector in the true sense.

6. References:

i. (A.Alnsarawi)

ii. (NCERT)

iii. (UN Peacekeeping forces)

iv. (Council)

v. t (UN-SDG)

vi. (Indian Institute of Governance & Leadership )

vii. (Sahistory)

viii. Human security: undermining human rights, Rhoda-E- Hasmann, February 2012

ix. (UN Peacekeeping)