Tamil Nadu Politics - Analysing The Basics of Electoral Complexities

Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Map

Introduction -

Tamil Nadu is perhaps one state in India, which has got a lot of sterotype, even in the evolution of digital era. Its a state that has still not got out of it being an Anti Hindi image in the other parts of the country. Part of this reason is the kind of politics that has been practiced in the state of Tamil Nadu. What started off as a protest by the then, Dravida Kazhagam(today's DMK) against the 1965 NEP introduced by then Congress government, which mandated a 2 language policy across government schools, morphed into a massive Dravidian movement. The Dravidian movement has essentially made caste & language as the core issues of the state, with more emphasis being on the former. 

Additionally, in 1967, India & Tamil Nadu were undergoing major political transitions. It was being governed by the Congress party, which had a lot of infightings between the syndicate & indicate group, which led to the split in the party at the national level. The party had governed, the state for 15 years and it is very normal, in the course of Indian politics that fatigue factor does set in after 2 consecutive terms. Additionally, 1967 elections are called as the first political earthquake of India, where INC failed to win a 2/3rd majority and lost power in 9 big states back then. These ramifications had a long lasting impact on Tamil Nadu politics. This proves that the dravidian majors, though harp on linguistic divisions to further their political agenda, but they do ally with the so called "Hindi heartland" parties, so that, it suits their politics. This has paid them off in the past and will continue to do so in the past.

Brief Electoral Political History & The Value of Cadre  :-

The state of Tamil Nadu has had a very unique history and additionally, has had an even more unique role in the national politics of India. It is one of those states, which has constantly stood against, what it viewed as "infringement" on the federal structure, but has never shied away from sharing power with the national parties. Let it be, the DMK supporting Congress during UPA era or AIADMK siding with BJP during different phases or  AIADMK+Congress combine in 1991 elections or the DMK & BJP aligning in 1998. It has been one state, where the 2 major parties during the times of Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, definitely followed a more pragmatic style of politics, which allowed the state to develop at a rapid rate during the turbulent 1990s and 2000s. 

The growth rates of Tamil Nadu, in this era was consistently above the national average, which made the state as a thriving hub of industrial development. Even today, if the state of Tamil Nadu (since last 57) has been electing the alliances led by DMK & AIADMK, its primarily because of the growth rates that the state has produced. This has to be the starting point from where any political analysis should actually begin, as many a times its the economic factors that tend to influence political behaviours in India. Along with pragmatic politics, also, the Indian constitution on federalism makes the 2 regional parties align with either of the national parties.

In this manner, it must be understood, that by allying with the central governments, the state has produced decent growth rates in the past. Graph - 1 depicts, ruling parties and the number of seats they have won. Additionally, the almost alternate nature of either AIADMK winning or DMK winning the state, shows that TN is a high anti incumbency state.

Ruling Party & The Number of Seats won

Coming to the main players, for most watchers of TN politics, the main players would be limited to DMK & AIADMK. This is true to a large extent, as only these 2 parties have had their chief ministers in the past 58 years, with no other party ever getting to even make their deputy CM in the state. Additionally, both of these parties have sparred over the handling of contentious issues in their electoral history which does make both of them arch rivals. In fact, the AIADMK was formed after the friendship of M Karunanidhi broke up with film star MG Ramachandran, who then went on to become a very successful CM in the state, where party was formed in 1977.

An interesting fact associated with both these parties, has been that, they were able to wipe out the Congress party from the state's political landscape by 1991, which is why now the INC has been relegated to a small player in the state politics.In fact, the Congress has been allying with either of the parties as a junior partner since many decades now, though since 2004, it has remained steadfastly loyal towards DMK. Graph - 2 depicts vote share of AIADMK, Congress & DMK in state legislative elections since 1977. Additionally, it can be seen, that  the meltdown of Congress due to organisational factors, has directly turned into a net-net benefit for DMK & AIADMK. It means, that leaving a few core voters of the Congress, they have not been able to get a lot of new voters in the state.

Vote Shares of AIADMK/DMK/Congress since 1977

This independent cadre and the caste coalition strengths of DMK & AIADMK, is the prime reason that despite the passing away of Jayalalithaa in 2016 & M. Karunanidhi in 2018, these parties have won the lion share of seats in the state and its immensely difficult to expect a Congress type meltdown for any of the 2 parties. Furthemore, the almost static nature of the parties(as shown in the graph) to get their cadre votes and a bigger pool of voters connected to them from decades, is the reason, why these parties will be relevant in some form or the other in the state.

The Value of the 2 leaves symbol for AIADMK

The survival of AIADMK after the happenings of 2016, where there was a split in the party, between VK Sasikala and her former protege turned antagonist Edapaddi Palaniswamy, is worth studying for students of political science. AIADMK historically has been a leadership dependent party with a strong cadre base. The party's history is an exceptionally unique, one, as the AIADMK has seen splits and legal tussles over the 2 leaves symbol. The first split occured in 1989 when T. Janaki(W/o late MGR) and Jayalalithaa, had a legal tussle over the 2 leaves symbol, which ended in favor of the latter. Prime reason being - Jayalalithaa's faction polled 22% votes in total & AIADMK polled 9% votes in the 1991 election. 

The second split occured in 2016-18, where Edapaddi Palaniswamy and TTV Dinakaran(nephew of VK Sasikala) had a legal tussle over the symbol, which was won by the EPS group. The end result, in both these elections were quite the same, where the DMK ended up winning & the faction without the 2 leaves symbol struggled. This shows, that despite a strong leadership, the AIADMK cadre does depend on the 2 leaves symbol to win its core voters & swing voters to win elections in the state. This proves that the visibility of the party is very important in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Graph - 3 proves 2 things - (A) The popularity that Jayalalithaa enjoyed. (B) Now the AIADMK may have transitioned into a cadre based party over a leadership based party. (C) Given, Edapaddi Palaniswamy has been able to almost entirely maintain the vote share of AIADMK despite the split in 2018, it means that, he is definitely popular amongst his supporters.

AIADMK vote shares in splits

In the graph here, one factor that has not been covered is the former CM, O. Paneerselvam, who has served multiple tenures as a stop - gap CM since AIADMK's foundation. Since, he is in a legal tussle right now with AIADMK supremo EPS, how many cadre votes does he have, will be known only in 2026 election, though he is still a part of the NDA as of now. The DMK on the other hand, has never faced any succession questions, as its a party that has a lot of political capital dependent on the Karunanidhi family who can control the DMK cadres. The reason why the AIADMK has struggled whenever it has splitted and the power has transitioned to the DMK, is because, their core voters either go to vote for the DMK or they vote for the split faction. This is something that is consistent, with what we covered in the probabilistic voting theory & MPVT.

Why BJP becomes critical - 

The second national party, in this case has been the BJP, it has allied with both state parties, but has had an aspiration to fight and has tried to grow on its own strength since many years now. It formed the NDA in 2014 & 2024, sans AIADMK or DMK. Though, the BJP won only 1 seat out of 39 in both these  elections, it was able to still poll around 11% votes in 2024 & 3% votes in 2014. However, since these were national elections, the BJP has polled even lesser votes in the Vidhan Sabha elections, primarily as it lacks the candidates & the cadre to grow organically in the state. This has led to the BJP, depending on either AIADMK or DMDK or any other third front party like DMDK of Captain Vijaykanth in 2014. Furthermore, BJP is relatively a very new party in the state, which has had a limited presence over the years. The 2024 lok sabha election was the best ever performance that BJP had in the state on its own strength, this proves that, the efforts of K. Annamalai as the de facto opposition leader from 2021-24(actively) was well recognised by the people. 

However, this existing split in AIADMK between the 3 factions and the presence of PM Narendra Modi in the national politics, makes sure that, BJP becomes the fulcrum point of NDA. The prime reason, being that Narendra Modi is the most popular politician in entire world today and the BJP is the biggest political party in India. Without, Narendra Modi and the BJP, it would be difficult for cadre based politicians like Edapaddi Palaniswamy, TTV Dinakaran & O. Paneerselvam to win elections on their own name. The reason, is that, a cadre based politician will always find it difficult to compete with a politician, who is nationally popular that his party wins in bigger states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat & Madhya Pradesh on his name. The BJP polling 11% in the state 2024 and finishing second place in 12 constituencies with TTV & OPS on their side, is the reason, why the AIADMK had to accept this alliance proposal, as the BJP definitely has some cadre in the state today.

Furthemore, since Indian constitution, mandates, India to be a union of states with a strong central government(even the state's name has to be ratified in Parliament), the BJP becomes by default exceptionally important in the state. Now this can be a main reason, why the DMK keeps on targetting the BJP in terms of narrative issues like NEP or the inactivity of Central government amongst others.

Role of the third front in TN politics -

The third front is perhaps the most unique aspect of the state politics in Tamil Nadu. Over the years, it has been seen that, the whenever there is an emergence of a third front or third major player in TN politics, who has a substantial fanbase or support base, they have polled a lot of votes in such elections. The biggest benefactors have been parties such as NTK by Mr. Seeman, MNM by Kamal Hassan, AIADMK(1977) by MGR and DMDK by Captain Vijaykanth have polled decent number of votes in VS elections. The following graph, shows how many people in TN, do vote for the third front when presented with an opportunity. Cine star Thalapathy Joseph Vijay's TVK has been kept out of this graph, as he is yet to contest an election in the state.

Third front & cine star parties vote

This graph proves 4 things :

1. Initially, the people of TN do vote for the cine star parties but over time, if they align with the dravidian majors, they have tend to lost over their vote shares. Vijaykanth's DMDK is the prime example of the same. DMDK was formed in 2008 as an alternate to both the DMK & ADMK, it ended up polling almost around 8.5 % vote shares, but since then, because, it was not able to keep up its organisation, its vote share has fallen dramatically to almost 2%, which proves again as to why, cadre building in Tamil Nadu is exceptionally critical.

2. MNM of Kamal Hassan is also an example, he contested only 2 elections, 2016 & 2021, saw a rise in vote share but since he lost his own election, he has now effectively called his party to quits. This vote of MNM will most likely transfer to Thalapathy Vijay's TVK in the upcoming 2026 Vidhan Sabha elections. Since, MNM is also a part of UPA as of today.

3. The third party in this entire case is of NTK by Seeman, who is contesting elections consistently as an independent third front. In 2006, he was polling close to 0.5% votes, but his votes have seen a constant & slow rise over past 3 election cycles, implying that, his ultra nationalist Tamil ideology is finding takers in the state. Though, some of these voters maybe more inclined towards the ideology part, but it must be accepted, that Mr. Seeman has built a good enough cadre in the state. This is the prime reason, why experts are predicting, that Thalapthy Vijay's TVK will get a good chunk of NTKs vote share in the state. But, NTK will survive in the state politics, provided they don't align with the dravidian majors.

4. The prime reason, why, cine stars have ventured into TN politics is because of the success that late MG Ramachandran had in the state in 1977. MGR was one of the most popular cine stars of the state back in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. He polled a staggering 40% in the state in 1977 elections.

However, this was due to many factors - (1) The prime opposition Congress, had a big meltdown in the state due to not having local leadership this is something pointed in Graph 2 where vote shares of AIADMK, DMK & Congress are given.(2) MGR had a second rung leadership ready when he had his political debut, which helped his cause even more. (3) MGR was a prominent orator even in the DMK circles of 1967. (4) DMK was battling a 10 year anti incumbency in the state. This is the prime reason, why AIADMK & MGR became relevant in the state. The prime lesson for any cine star flirting with TN politics, is that, they must have a prior background and they must be building over the cadre, along with hoping that, one of the major parties has a massive political meltdown. Also, it proves that, the third front voters in Tamil Nadu are historically those, who have had a negative outlook towards the politics in the state.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Utility of Smaller Political Outfits in the state -

Vote Shares by socio-economics groups - CSDS Lokniti

There is one aspect of politics, that is exceptionally unique to Tamil Nadu politics, which is the presence of caste based outfits & the smaller regional parties in the state.  Now techncially speaking, the major state parties, national parties & even the sub-regional parties have opposed casteism in the state. Even in Tamil media, casteism is looked down upon, but the presence of political parties who get a good chunk of votes from their own castes is exceptionally critical in Tamil Nadu politics. All this with almost a similar voting behaviour by socio-economic groups in the state as attached in the graph in this secion, shows that, caste is one amongst the crucial factors in the state.

The attached tables are about the alliance parties & their current partners. 

Alliance parties and their importance

The alliance partners & caste based outfits like PMK or VCK become exceptionally important in the state, as they have a bunch of core voters who will vote for these small parties any day, additionally, they will vote for the alliance in which their party is an alliance partner of. For example - Take the example of PMK, the core voters & cadres of PMK, voted for BJP in many constituencies in 2024, whereas, in 2021, their votes were transferred to AIADMK. Additionally, in the past, PMK has been a member of DMKs alliance as well, where their voters transferred their votes to either of dravidian parties back then. For starters, PMK is a party that is essentially meant to represent the interests of Vanniyars, their political rise can be traced back to when S. Ramadoss led a protest in 1990s for demanding inclusion of Vanniyars in the OBC quota category. Whereas, the VCK is for representing interests of the Dalit community (majorly Pala dalit community).

The reason, why both the Dravidian majors also cant exclude such parties is primarily due to following reasons:-

(1) Every party in the alliance, will add on their own bunch of core voters, which is critical in a state, where anti incumbency develops very quickly i.e. in 5 years. Additionally, it becomes even more critical in a state, where the 2 parties have to navigate complex caste realities in the state. This pushes the ADMK-DMK to make sure that these parties are included in the alliance.

(2) The presence of these parties becomes even more critical in the state where the cumulative votes polled by ADMK & DMK is around 70%, it implies, the rest 30% voters can actually become the swing voters in the state of Tamil Nadu, a good proportion of whom are a part of the alliances as of now.

Conclusion -

To conclude, the TN politics is more complex that what we may analyse over social media. The presence of other outfits, cadres amongst others is what makes the state politics exceptionally unique and important. Though, this blog does not cover a lot of the other factors in general, but, it has tried to give a different perspective on the politics of TN state. Also, this article has been written at a time when, TN elections are still 1 year away, but the predictions provided in this article, may well turn out to be critical as well. However, predicting politics especially electoral politics in India, is exceptionally difficult as, in politics 1 + 1 is never equal to 2. 

Contenders For India's Vacant Vice President Post

Source - Sarkari tel

On 21 June 2025, India's vice president Jagdeep Dhankar tendered his resignation as the Vice President of India citing health reasons. The resignation was sudden and no one really saw it coming, as the monsoon session of the Parliament had just begun. With his resignation, he became only the third vice president in Indian history after VV Giri & R Venkataraman who resigned in 1970s. With the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankar, a fresh race has begun in the country on who could potentially succeed him as the next VP, as the VP of India is also the chairperson of Rajya Sabha. Additionally, VP also has added responsibilities like having the duty of being India's abroad representative and having a consulting role with the President of India. The post is so critical, that the constitution of India has articles about it from article 63 to 71, which falls under Part 5 of Indian constitution.

Here are the following names who can succeed the outgoing VP Jagdeep Dhankar. Since, the NDA and the ruling BJP have a comfortable majority in the parliament, its common knowledge that the next VP will be from the NDA itself. Also, looking at the track records of the NDA in the past, in relation to the VP election, the BJP during the time of  Narendra Modi & Atal Bihari Vajpayee, have often went ahead with faces who are otherwise popular in the country. The 4 vice presidents of the BJP or the NDA era have been - Shri. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat from Rajasthan who was a popular CM back in 1993-1998, Shri. Jagdeep Dhankar who was popular governor in the politically crucial state of West Bengal and was in media limelight and Shri. Venkaiah Naidu a former National BJP president. The vice presidents picks of NDA have been popular and do enjoy a lot of experience along with the support of the common man, who may not be interested in politics.

Another common theme is that, NDA has usually preferred to pick its VPs from different states and has usually picked Vice presidents, who hail from dominant communities(socio-economic & politically), the above people belong to critical voting blocs like Rajputs, Khammas and Jats, who hold sway in politically important states. This is primarily because the 3 presidential candidates of NDA have been - Shri. APJ Abdul Kalam, Shri. Ram Nath Kovind and incumbent Smt. Droupadi Murmu, who have belonged from the less dominant communities in India. Hence, the probability of NDA continuing its trend of appointing a VP from a dominant community looks highly possible.

Thus in all probabilities, the next Vice President of India must be logically from a dominant community from a politically important state of India.

1. Dr. Harivansh Narayan Singh - Dr. Harivansh is the current Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha, he belongs to the JDU party which is an important constituent of NDA. Dr. Harivansh is an old timer Rajya Sabha MP who has chaired crucial sessions for over the past few years now. He belongs to the Bhumihar community which is dominant in Bihar & Purvanchal and has been a career journalist before transitioning into politics in the older times. Dr. Harivansh is known to be an accessible, affable and a smart politician, who enjoys good ties with PM Narendra Modi.

2. Vasundhara Raje - Vasundhara Raje is perhaps one name which  is not being discussed a lot in the media. She has been a popular and a veteran BJP politician, now actively a member of Indian electoral politics from 1987 onwards. She has been a 2 time Rajasthan CM along with being a former Minister of State during the reign of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999-2004. She comes from the Maratha lineage with a background in Jat and Rajput families, which makes her a very strong contender for the post. Her political experience along with  her being a woman face, a bloc on which PM Modi has tried to constantly nurturesince many years, makes her a strong candidate for this post.

3. Nitish Kumar - Nitish Kumar may end up being one of the darkhorses in the race for the post of Vice President. Its a well known fact that the 9 time CM of Bihar has had Prime Ministerial ambitions from a lot of time, almost since 2009. Nitish Kumar is currently serving as the Bihar CM. Since Nitish Kumar belongs from a Kurmi community(categorized as OBC community) which has influence in, Purvanchal, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Making a tall leader from this community, can actually consolidate votes for the NDA in the upcoming Bihar elections, where the NDA suffered minor setbacks during the Lok Sabha elections, due to the erosion of support from this community. 

Additionally, since the past few elections like in Jharkhand 2024 VS elections or the UP 2024 LS elections, the Kurmi votes have shown signs of drifting away from the BJP, which the BJP would like to consolidate before the next election, one example is the loss of BJP in kurmi dominated seat of Basti/Ambedkar Nagar in UP. Also, having Nitish Kumar as the Vice President, would allow BJP to get its own CM in Bihar, something which many BJP supporters have wanted in the past. Additionally, the Bihar elections 2025 will be a close elections, as the fatigue factor against a 18 year old CM may come into play, which the BJP wont be risking at a time, when they have not won the majority by their own in the Lok Sabha. Furthemore, appointing Nitish Kumar as the VP would make Bihar move into a new generation of politics, where leaders like - Chirag Paswan, Tejasvi Yadav, Prashant Kishore, Nitin Navin, Samrat Choudhary and probably Nishant Kumar, would be critical figures.

4. O. Paneerselvam - O. Paneerselvam also known as OPS can also be a potential contender for the post of Vice President. The reason being that, OPS has served multiple stints as the CM of Tamil Nadu. He is currently locked in a legal tussle with AIADMK supremo EPS over his sacking as the co-coordinator of AIADMK. OPS also belongs from the influential Thevar community and with OPS's appointment  as the Vice President, the BJP would ideally like to reach out to this section of Tamil Nadu voters, who had voted for the NDA sans AIADMK in good numbers in 2024 LS . OPS has also been a politician, who is percieved being close to the central leadership of the BJP. Furthermore, his community is critical swing voter in the Southern Tamil Nadu districts.

Additionally, it would help BJP to rub off the tag of being anti Tamil, which is critical as the state goes to assembly elections next year, with routine anti incumbency on DMK being in play. If the NDA indeeds makes OPS as their Vice President candidate, then, NDA will have a good chance of forming its own government in Tamil Nadu. However, how much probability will that have, also depends on other local factors like the rise of Thalapathy Vijay's TVK, NTK & the coalition dynamics. Also, making a Vice President candidate from the state of Tamil Nadu, will allow BJP to win over the votes of the DMK, as the DMK wont like to risk itself to be seen as Anti Tamil before the VS elections. Making OPS as the VP face, would also allow BJP to expand more aggressively into the Thevar community, in addition to getting access to some of the cadres of AIADMK who are still loyalists of OPS. This would push, BJP for negotiating harder in the VS elections, another demand something which has been raised by the Sangh Parivar in TN.

5. Other Names - In case, the BJP does not want to continue its tradition of picking up powerful Vice Presidents, or want to change their community composition,some other names can be of Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, P. Sreedharan Pillai, CP Rajashekar, Baby Rani Maurya, Arjun Ram Meghwal amongst others.

At the end of day, within a few days time the country will get a new Vice President and the  Rajya Sabha till then will function under the guidance of the Deputy Chairman. Also, the country would want to see a new Vice President as early as possible, as the country can not risk delaying a political appointment, as it can hurt the investment forecasts, trade forecats and economic forecasts of the country, in the longer run. Also, given the BJP and NDA have a tendency to surprise everyone with their choices, maybe a new Vice President from out of the blue can emerge in the country as well.