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| Source - The Frontline Magazine |
Introduction -
The Tamil Nadu assembly elections are around the corner. This elections is also quite special for the state, as it would be the first election which wont be fought in the shadow of 3 towering politicians, namely, Captain Vijaykanth, M. Karunanidhi & J. Jayalalithaa who dominated the state politics discourse for around 2 decades. This election is also unique which is also conducted on the backdrop for the first time since the death of M. Karunanidhi where DMK is the current incumbent. Furthermore, this election is also critical, as its after almost 16 years, that a mass cinema actor has transitioned into full time politics, this is none other than Thalapathy Vijay who is contesting elections with his newly formed Tamilaga Vetri Kalagam party.
This election is also being fuelled by the alliance talks of both UPA & NDA. Since, TVK of Mr. Jospeh Vijay is not in any alliance as of now, hence this article does not discuss
UPA currently has - DMK as the prinicipal party with Congress, VCK (an outfit meant for the political upliftment of Dalits) of Mr. Thol Thirmaluvan, Indian Union Muslim League, Mukkalathor Pulipadai (an outfit meant for the political interests of Thevar OBC caste) of Mr. Karunas, Left parties (both CPI & CPM), All India Forward Bloc, Adhi Tamilar Perivai (an outfit meant for the political upliftment of Dalits), DMDK of late actor Captain Vijaykanth who joined the alliance barely a few days ago, KMDK (an outfit concentrated in Kongu region of Tamil Nadu), MNM of actor Kamal Hasan, MDMK of Mr. Vaiyapuri Gopalasamy (called Vaiko), SDPI(political front of banned terrorist organisation PFI), splinter group of PMK led by Ramadoss Sr. & a few other small political outfits. The total number of parties in this entire alliance is close to a total of 21 parties. The seat sharing talks is so far not concluded as the deadlock between the DMK & Congress continues as of the time of writing this article.
On the other hand, the NDA has multiple parties, which includes - ADMK led by Edapaddi K. Palanisamy, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), AMMK (of VK Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran), IJK of TR Paarivendar, PMK of Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss, PDK of Muthaih, PTMK of NR Dhanapalan, PBK of M. Jagan Moorthy, PNK of AC Shanamugham, South Indian Forward Bloc of KC Thimuran, TMMK of John Pandian, Tamil Manila Congress of GK Vasan, UUK and the possibility of PT by Dr. K. Krishnaswamy slated to join the alliance. Even the NDA alliance is close to a total of 14 parties. The NDA alliance in 2021, had all these parties sans AMMK & some caste leaders. As per news reports, PMK has already been allocated 16 seats by ADMK in the alliance as of now.
Lok Sabha Elections & BJP -
Now, the interesting part is that in the 2024 elections, the BJP which was led by then state president & former IPS officer, K. Annamalai had contested the election effectively as a third front as a NDA alliance. BJP had contested around 25 seats on its own symbol, with 10 seats which were given to PMK, 3 seats were allocated to Tamil Manila Congress & 1 seat was allocated to AMMK of TTV Dhinakaran. The other parties in the current NDA, were all contesting on BJPs symbol, which made the contest really interesting. Leaders like TR Paarivendhar, John Pandian, AC Shanamugham & T. Devanathan Yadav, had contested the elections on BJP symbol. In this election, the second Dravidian major, ADMK had an alliance with DMDK, PT & a few caste based leaders.
BJP posted interesting but mixed results in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, while it managed to come second in around a dozen constituencies,but the vote share of BJP remained at around 12% which was the highest ever the state unit has ever polled in the party history. Coupled, with the election & now, with the latest data of ECI, which has pointed out BJP to be the third largest party in TN at booth level, has prompted tall state BJP leaders like Nainar Nagendran (current state BJP chief) to demand upto 50 seats in its alliance with ADMK.
This article has taken into account, a few lok sabha seats where the BJP managed to save its deposit/finish second & around 70 vidhan sabha segments, where BJP managed to poll good number of votes & using basic data analysis, will try to possibly point out the seats which BJP may end up contesting in the ongoing seat sharing negotiations within the NDA. BJP had failed to lead in even a single vidhan sabha constituency in LS 2024, which was a reason for them to get into an alliance with ADMK again.
Seat by seat analysis (Lok Sabha level)
1. Tiruvallur - This lok sabha seat is located in the northernmost part of Tamil Nadu. The current MP from this seat was from the Congress party, who won with a margin of almost 5.72 lakh votes. The BJP candidate here was Mr. Pon. V. Balaganapathy who finised second with a 15% vote share, pushing ADMK led alliance which had DMDK as its ally to the third position. This seat had 3 vidhan sabha segments where the BJP managed to poll more number of votes than that of DMDK.
The seat of Ponnamalle has a current MLA from the DMK party. BJP polled around 38k votes in this assembly segment, while DMDK (part of ADMK alliance) polled around 37.5k votes, as per form B data. The NDA candidate in 2021 belonged to the PMK party who polled around 55k votes, BJP has never contested this seat in its history in Tamil Nadu. While the cumulative alliance did perform well, there are high chances that this seat, may again be given to PMK, as it falls in Northern Tamil Nadu which is considered to be a stronghold of PMK due to the backing of the influential Vanniyar OBC community. Additionally, given that BJP has never contested in this seat, hence the probability of BJP getting this seat allocated to them seems very low.
The second seat, where the BJP candidate was able to poll good number of votes was in Avadi vidhan sabha constituency. It polled 51k votes in this segment while DMDK(part of ADMK alliance) polled around 34,337 votes. The NDA candidate in 2021, belonged to the ADMK, who polled around 95 k votes. BJP has never contested in this seat in its history of TN, hence there are chances that ADMK may field its own candidate here.
The third seat, where BJP polled good votes was in Madavaram. BJP polled 43,990 votes while DMDK(part of ADMK alliance) polled around 40,000 votes in this segment. The NDA candidate in 2021 belonged to ADMK, who polled around 91k votes. BJP has never contested this seat in its history in TN, hence there are high chances that ADMK may field its own candidate here.
2. Chennai city - Chennai city has 3 lok sabha seats located in its vicinity. These 3 seats are namely - Chennai North, Chennai Central & Chennai South. All these 3 seats were contested by BJP in the vidhan sabha election. BJP finished third in Chennai North & finished second in Chennai Central, Chennai South seat.
A. Chennai North seat was contested by RC Paul Kanagaraj, who polled around 12.5%. The party of ADMK led alliance which contested in this seat was ADMK itself. BJP ended up finishing third in this constituency.
BJP had respectable polling figures, only in 1 seat of this vidhan sabha segment, which was
Kolathur, where it polled around 25k votes, while ADMK polled 18k votes. The last election was contested by ADMK candidate who polled around 44k votes. This vidhan sabha segment is represented by the Tamil Nadu CM, MK Stalin, hence, it is very less likely that ADMK may like to allocate this seat to BJP as it can give DMK the opportunity to its erstwhile ally in poor light. Hence, BJP contesting Kolathur seat is a bit low, even though the BJP leadership may be keen to contest this seat. Additionally, BJP has never contested this seat, which also makes it against them. However, the NDA alliance may want to field a star candidate in this seat.
B. Chennai Central seat was contested by state BJYM chief, Vinoj Selvam. The other party in contest on this seat was DMDK who was contesting on behalf of ADMK alliance. BJP polled 23% votes on this seat, which is a massive deal as this seat has constantly elected tall leaders of the DMKs first family like- M. Karunanidhi, Udhayanidhi Stalin, Murasoli Maran & Dayanidhi Maran in the past. BJP polled good votes in all the 6 assembly segments and was comfortably ahead of ADMK+ alliance.
In
Thousand Lights, BJP polled around 31k votes, while DMDK polled only 12k votes. Current MLA here is from DMK party. In the 2021 election, this seat was contested by Khushboo Sundar, who is currently a BJP leader in TN. She had polled around 39,000 votes in this seat. In total, the cumulative NDA performance in this seat projected a rise of 4,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat, in 1996, 2001, 2016 & 2021, which makes BJPs claim to this seat strong enough in the NDA alliance.
The other seat of Chennai Central, where BJP did perform well surprisingly was in
Harbour. BJP polled around 27,000 votes which was way ahead of the 5,000 odd votes polled by DMDK here. In 2021 election, this seat was contested by Vinoj Selvam of BJP. He had polled around 32,000 votes, cumulatively the performance of NDA on this seat has been the same. Given, BJP has contested this seat in 1989,1996,2006,2011, 2016 & 2021, it is high possibility that ADMK may like to allocate this seat to BJP.
Anna Nagar is another seat of Chennai Central lok sabha seat, where the BJP performed well in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. BJP polled 33,000 votes which was way ahead of 19,000 odd votes which were polled by the DMDK. In 2021, this seat was contested by S. Gokula Indira of ADMK, who roughly polled around 52,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat in the past elections of 1991,1996, 2006 & 2016. Given, the politically vibrant history of this seat, which elected DMK patriarch, M. Karunanidhi back in 1967, BJP would like to ideally push for this seat. There are high chances, that BJP may end up contesting this seat.
Chepauk seat is the most critical seat of Chennai Central lok sabha constituency, today. Chepauk is the sitting MLA seat of current DCM, Udhayanidhi Stalin. BJP polled around 24,000 votes which was way ahead of 9,000 odd votes by DMDK. In 2021, this seat was contested by Kasaali of PMK, who polled only around 23,000 votes. Given, in the last election itself, ADMK conceeded this seat to PMK, there are high chances that, ADMK would like to conceede this seat to some NDA ally. Given, the nature of this seat which is a hardcore DMK stronghold seat, BJP may like to contest this seat, seeing that, the cumulative votes of current NDA setup increased by around 10,000 in lok sabha elections. BJP has contested this seat twice sans alliance, in 2011 & 2016, which strengthens their claim. NDA alliance, may like to field, some tall leader in this seat like, K. Annamalai who may poll good number of votes here in the battle of young turks.
Egmore seat is another seat, which has a high proportion of voters. The sitting MLA is from DMK party. BJP polled around 24,000 votes in this particular seat, which was again way ahead of DMDKs 11,000 odd votes. In 2021, this seat was contested was John Pandian, current TMMK chief on ADMK symbol. He polled around 30,000 votes in that election. There was a marginal rise of around 4,000 votes on this seat. BJP has contested here in 1996,2006, 2011 & 2016 from this seat. BJP which contested in 2016 on its own strength, had polled arund 7000 votes in this segment.
This is one of the seats, which ADMK has never won in its history, hence, it would have no problems in allocating this seat to any of its alliance partners. BJP may point out that, the last NDA candidate, B. John Pandian had contested this seat on its symbol in Tenkasi lok sabha constituency, hence, there are good chances that John Pandian may contest on BJPs symbol.
Villivakkam assembly constituency was contested by BJP on its own strength in 2016 where it had polled around 6,000. BJP polled 27,000 votes on this seat which was double of DMDKs 13,000 odd votes in the 2024 lok sabha election. This is another seat which has been a DMK stronghold, with the exception of 2011 & 1980 where ADMK had its MLA here, who was their candidate in 2021 as well. ADMK had polled around 38,000 votes, which is fractionally less than the cummulative votes by NDA on this seat. However, that MLA & candidate,
JCD Prabhakar has ended up joining Jospeh Vijay's TVK and most likely be its candidate here. Given, he had also contested on ADMKs symbol multiple times, there maybe,ADMKs position is weak here. Therefore, provided BJPs history & the way, BJP polled votes here in 2024 Lok sabha election, there maybe the presence of an ADMK candidate over BJP symbol, which can spice up the contest on this seat.
Therefore, there is a very real chance that, BJP may end up fielding its candidates in maybe all the 6 vidhan sabha segments of Chennai Central lok sabha seat.
C.
Chennai South - In 2024, this seat was contested by Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, former Pondicherry governor. This seat saw BJP poll 24% votes, while ADMK polled around 15% votes here. ADMK had fielded its senior leader J. Jayavardhan here, which does mean that the seat negotiations for Chennai South will be hectic for both BJP & ADMK here. All the MLAs on this lok sabha seat, are from the UPA alliance, with 5 being from DMK & 1 from INC. This allows, the NDA to try new candidates & caste combinations for this lok sabha segment.
Virugambakam seat currently has a DMK MLA at helm. In this seat, BJP polled around 45,000 votes, while ADMK polled 22,000 votes. In 2021, ADMK had fielded Virugai VN Ravi, who polled around 55,000 votes. BJPs Tamilisai Soundararajan had contested this seat separately in 2016, who polled close to 19,000 votes. This seat, has had a BJP cadre, hence BJP may ask ADMK to allocate this seat to them. However, given ADMK had its own MLAs in 2016 & in 2011 DMDK (part of ADMK alliance), hence its unlikely that, ADMK would allocate this seat to BJP. In the last election, the winning margin of DMK alliance was just 19,000 votes, hence, proper election management by BJP & ADMK may swing this seat in favour of NDA.
Thiyaraja Nagar seat, saw BJP poll around 45,000 votes while ADMK polled around 17,000 votes in the 2024 elections. ADMK had its candidate, B. Sathiyanarayan in this seat, who barely lost by a margin of 1000 votes in that election. Though, BJP has contested this seat back in 2011 & 2016, and may have some decent candidate here, however, given the margin of ADMKs loss in 2026 was of just 1000 votes, hence ADMK wont like to conceede this seat to BJP. However, given the historic performance of BJP on this seat, ADMK may field a candidate who is acceptable & popular to the local BJP cadres in this vidhan sabha constituency.
Mylapore seat would be another seat, which would be hotly discussed between the 2 alliance partners. BJP had its own MLA here back in 2001, in addition, BJP polled around 38,944 votes which was almost double of the votes that ADMK polled here in 2024 vidhan sabha elections which was around 22,000 votes. In the 2021 election, ADMK had its former IPS officer candidate,
R. Nataraj, who polled 55,000 votes here. However, givem BJPs historic performance & the rise of TVK in Chennai city, which may see its top leaders like Vijay contest in the city, BJP may push ADMK to allocate this seat to them. However, even if ADMK contests this seat, they would require help from BJPs cadres to win in this vidhan sabha constituency. Therefore, there is a good possibility that BJP will contest this seat.
Velachery is another seat, which would be hotly debated between the cadres of the BJP & ADMK. BJP polled around 51,000 votes compared to ADMKs 23,000 odd votes in this seat. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, with MK Ashok being its candidate back then, he had polled upto 64,000 votes here. He had lost with a bare small margin of around 4,000 votes. BJP had contested this seat independetly in 2016, where it had polled around 15,000 votes. Given, AMMK had also polled around 1,500 votes here in that election, therefore, BJP may ask its good friend TTV Dhinakaran to help it in alliance talks with ADMK, which may see a consensus candidate on BJP symbol. There is a good probability, that ADMK will conceede this seat to BJP in return for a candidate who can work with ADMK & AMMKs cadres.
Saidapet, is another seat which has been BJPs area of focus since the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. BJP has contested this seat in 1991,1996,2006, 2011 & 2016. The last time, BJP contested here, it had polled 6,000 votes roughly. BJP had recieved around, 28,000 votes in this constituency which was just 5000 votes more than ADMKs performance here. Additionally, ADMK had fielded its first Chennai city mayor, S. Duraisamy in 2021 where he had polled around 50,000 votes. Therefore, the presence of an established candidate & a small gap between the NDA constituents in LS 2024 election, may dampen BJPs chances of fielding its own candidate here
Shoziganallur, is one of the most densely populated seats of Tamil Nadu. DMK had polled 1.2 lakh votes here in the 2024 Lok sabha elections, BJP was at second which polled 81,000 votes & ADMK had polled 63,000 votes. In 2021, ADMK had contested this seat, where it had polled, 1.36 lakh votes but lost to DMK by around 35,000 votes. Given, TVKs entry & the strong presence of NTK in the last elections, it is unlikely that, ADMK would give this seat to BJP, given that BJP did contest here back in 2016 where it finished an abysmal 4th position. Therefore, the probability of BJP contesting this seat is really low.
3.
Madurai - In this lok sabha seat, the most interesting set of results were posted in the lok sabha elections. This lok sabha seat, has seen, BJP bigwigs like Narendra Modi & Amit Shah visit repeatedly. BJP had finished second in this seat, which is considered as the cultural heartbeat of Tamil Nadu, by polling 22% votes, while ADMK had polled around 20% in this seat. DMK ally CPM had polled just around 43.6% votes here. ADMK currently has MLAs in Melur & Madurai West constituency, hence, common wisdom suggests that, most likely, BJP wont stake claim to these vidhan sabha segments.
The 4 other seats, has MLAs from DMK (3) & MDMK. Additionally, the rise in support by Thevar community, along with the controversial Thiruppanakundaram issue, will push BJP to negotiate hard with the ADMK for some winnable vidhan sabha segments here. BJP candidate here, was Prof. Raama Sreenivisan.
Madurai East - BJP had polled close to 43,000 votes in this seat, compared to ADMKs, 39,000 votes.ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 vidhan sabha elections, where its candidate, R. Gopalakrishnan had polled around 73,000 votes. He had lost the elections by a margin of almost 50,000 votes. Given, this seat has had multiple ADMK MLAs in the past, hence the chance of this seat having a BJP candidate seems less likely as of today. BJP has contested this seat back in 2016, but the performance was not that great, where it had polled only 6,000 votes. BJP contesting this seat looks less likely.
Madurai North- BJP & ADMK polled almost the same number of votes in 2024 Lok sabha elections. This seat was contested by P. Sarvanan of BJP in 2021, who polled around 51,000 votes. He later joined ADMK. P. Sarvanan has been a former MLA from this place with multiple stints in MDMK, DMK & BJP. Hence, given, that BJPs candidate has joined ADMK, hence ADMK not staking claim to this seat would actually be very surprising.
Madurai South - BJP & ADMK polled 42,000 & 25,000 votes here respectively in 2024 lok sabha elections. This seat in 2021 was contested by SS Sarvanan of AIADMK, who had polled around 56,000 votes, while losing the elections was a bare margin of 6,000 votes. BJP had contested this seat in 2016, where it had polled around 16,000 votes. This seat had also seen, AMMK poll around 2500 votes in that election, hence, given BJPs background, recent performance, local cadre strength & likely support from AMMK, BJP may have its own candidate in this prestigious constituency.
Madurai Central is the last seat in this lok sabha constituency. BJP had polled 29,000 votes here while ADMK had polled 25,000 votes here. ADMK had contested this election, but the candidate, N. Jothi Muthuramalingam had lost by almost 34,000 votes in this constituency. While given, the total votes are around, 54,000 in this seat in 2024 Lok sabha elections, hence there is again a good chance that, BJP may end up contesting this seat, however, it would require a candidate from ADMK as, the last time BJP had contested here, it had polled only 6,000 votes. Hence, this is another seat, that ADMK may like to allocate to BJP, while sending its candidate on the lotus symbol.
4.
Nilgiris - This seat is located in the heart of Kongu Nadu. Nilgiris lok sabha seat, saw BJP candidate & union MoS, Dr. L. Murugan finished second by polling 22% votes, while ADMK polled 21% votes here in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. ADMK currently has MLAs in 4/6 assembly segments, hence, it is very unlikely, that, it would end up allocating these seats to BJP, where it already has MLAs. However, there are 2 seats in the seat namely - Conoor & Udagamandalam, where BJP may end up contesting. One of these seats is with the Congress party & 1 is with the DMK.
Udagamandalam- This seat saw, BJP poll around 36,000 votes while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in the election. BJP had contested this seat in 2021 and had polled 61,000 votes. Hence, even sans the alliance, BJPs cadre strength here, seems to be strong enough to warrant a re contest with its own candidate. BJP has contested this seat consistently, since 1989 which should also be a reason, why ADMK may end up allocating this seat in the alliance to the BJP.
Conoor - This seat saw BJP poll around 29,000 votes while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in the election. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 and had polled around 57,000 votes. However, given, ADMKs abysmal performance here without the BJP, shows that again BJP has a better cadre strength in this seat, which may end up contesting this seat. BJP has contested this seat a few times, but has never polled a lot of votes here.
Though, the BJP has outperformed, ADMK, in 2024 Lok sabha elections in the vidhan sabha constituency of Mettupalayam, however,ADMK may hesitate in allocating this seat to the BJP, however, it may allocate a candidate who can closely work with the local BJP cadres.
5.
Vellore - This seat was contested by New Justice Party's chief, AC Shanamugham on BJP symbol. Vellore currently has 2 ADMK MLAs hence, common political wisdom suggests that, BJP may not ask ADMK to allocate those seats to them. AC Shanmugham while contesting on BJP symbol had polled around 3.5 lakh votes & 31.25% votes, which pushed ADMK to lose its deposit on this seat. This may push AC Shanmugham's outfit to demand more seats from ADMK, where BJP may play the mediating role in negotiations and may end up benefitting in a few seats.
Vellore (VS) - BJP polled around 65,000 votes here while ADMK had polled just 11,000 votes in 2024 lok sabha elections. ADMKs candidate here in 2021 was SRK Appu who had polled 75,000 votes back then. Given, the massive difference of the votes between the NDA constituents, BJP may try to convince ADMK to let, it field AC Shamugham on its lotus symbol. Also, given, ADMK has historically struggled in this seat since 1977 where it had its MLA only twice, ADMK may not be averse to allocating this seat to BJP which may field AC Shanmugham on its symbol. BJP has contested this seat consistently, from 1996 onwards with 2 breaks only in 2001 & 2021.
Anaikattu - BJP polled 71,000 votes here while ADMK polled 20,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 where its candidate was D. Velazaghan who lost the election with a paltry margin of only 7,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat back in 2006 & 2016, but given, ADMKs performance in both election, may not help BJP to stake claim over this seat.
Gudiyattam - BJP polled close to 58,000 votes here while ADMK polled 21,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, where its candidate, G. Paritha lost by a small margin of 7000 votes. BJP has never contested this seat in its history. Given, ADMKs cadre strength & nature of state elections in TN, ADMK will be averse in allocating this seat to BJP.
Ambur - While BJP polled 47,000 votes & ADMK polled 19,000 votes in 2024. ADMK had contested this seat in 2021, where its candidate had polled around 40% votes. BJP has contested this seat in its history, where it finished fifth twice. Given, ADMKs poor performance here, it may like to allocate this seat to BJP, however, given the high proportion of minority population on this seat, BJP may not wish to take this seat. Therefore, this seat would also likely have an ADMK leader.
Conclusion -
Based on seat by seat analysis of close to 7 lok sabha seats & 26 vidhan sabha seats, where BJP did poll decent number of votes in 2024 Lok sabha elections, there is a possibility that, BJP may end up contesting on close to 11 to 12 seats in the ongoing seat negotiations. However, given, political complexities this prediction may or may not be true, which should be known in a matter of few days.
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