Over the past 1 and a half year, one news item has dominated the headlines of newspapers, post every major assembly election in India, which is related to the post of the national president of India's ruling party, the BJP.
Introduction -
The reason why, the election of national president of a political party matters is because, a new national president brings his/her own working style, his ideas to the table, all which can have a significant bearing on the national and state level politics of India. For example - In the case of BJP, when Amit Shah was the national president of the party, the party toook a pragmatic approach towards startegic expansion in North East India, where it had struggled in the past due to allegations of apathy towards Christians, alienation of the tribals, non understanding of the local dynamics amongst others.
Amit Shah during his tenure, formed the NEDA (North Eastern Democratic Alliance) consisting of various regional & sub regional parties, which gave BJP a major edge in such a manner, that now, BJP has its MLAs in all the states of North east and has been able to form the state government consequently in states like Assam, Tripura, Manipur & Arunachal Pradesh on its own strength, something which was unthinkable about in the past. The similar examples can be said about the other presidents like JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari etc. The post of a party president is also critical because, it decides on the candidates to contest elections in every state, which can have a significant effecr on the electoral as well as economic outcomes of a state or even a district for that matter.
Now, just like, any other party, the BJP has usually followed a pattern in appointing the national presidents. It must be kept in mind, that BJP is the ruling party in the country today, which makes the selection criterion very different than when, it was in opposition. For example, when BJP was in opposition during UPA era, popular faces like Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari & LK Advani functioned as the national president of the BJP. Whereas, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime minister, experiments were conducted by making grassroots leaders like, Jana Krishnamurthi as the national president of BJP. The tenure of BJP president is 3 years and it can be extended to 6 years, based on approval from the BJP Parliamentary board which includes tall leaders of the party, this extension has already been given to JP Nadda. The other point to note is that, organisational elections should be conducted in 2/3rd of the state units, which the BJP has already done so far.
Geography:- A Key Criterion
Today, the selection criterion has also changed massively, when BJP is in power. The BJP when in power has usually prioritised giving adequate geographic representation to the 4 different regions of India, which are:- North, South, East & West. When, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime minister, he belonged from North India or to be more precise from Central India, the national president was the legend Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam who was from Rameshwaram, the party presidents from 1999-2004 were:- Bangaru Laxman, Jana Krishnamurthi and Venkaiah Naidu, all belonging to Southern India. The Vice President, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat belonged from West Indian state of Rajasthan, even during the Vajpayee era it can be seen that BJP tried its best to maintain regional balance in India, since BJP was not an influential player in East indian states of Odisha, West Bengal etc. hence that region never got enough representation in any of the 4 posts.
The Modi era of BJP has been starkly different, as BJPs geographic spread has included even East India and barring a few south Indian states, the BJP is seen as a key contender in 3/5 south Indian states today, while in AP & TN,it depends on its allies which include parties like TDP, AIADMK etc.
The result is that, the 2 presidents (Ram Nath Kovind & Droupadi Murmu) have belonged from East India, Vice Presidents (Venkaiah Naidu, Jagdeep Dhankar & CP Radhakrishnan), 2/3 have belonged from South India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is from West India and the BJP National Presidents (Amit Shah & JP Nadda) have belonged from West & North India respectively. Now, 1 thing is clear that geographical representation and proportion is a key component in determining the national president in BJP. Given, the party has its representation, East, South & West India in the positions of President, Vice President & Prime Minister, it should not be a surprise that the next president is from North India only.
Another aspect is that, BJP has never repeated a party president from the same state as it can run into the risk of having state based factions in the national leadership, hence even in North India, the probability of a BJP president from Himachal Pradesh looks bleak as of now. I dont think that, being a member of Rajya Sabha or Lok Sabha would be a major criterion for selection.
Caste & Ties with Sangh Parivar
The second key component in determining the national president of BJP is definitely, the ties of the national president with Sangh Parivar. This criterion is fairly straightforward and consistent, as all the BJP National presidents in the past, have had a very strong background in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Given this and the loss of seats in 2024 Lok Sabha in the Hindi hinterland areas where the presence of Sangh Parivar is strong, also makes it more probable that, the next president of BJP maybe someone who can maintain cordial ties between BJPs organisation and that of its parent organisation, the RSS.
The final component is caste balance, while keeping Uttar Pradesh as the key focus area, there are 2 trends that can be seen in the appointment of all BJP presidents, is that they must be able to influence the politics of UP which in many ways is dependent on the endogenous variables of national politics in general. The second, trend is that, BJP has rarely repeated the national presidents from the same caste group for example, the last 4 presidents, namely Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and JP Nadda, have belonged from different castes which have a critical say in the politics of Uttar Pradesh & other states of India.
Therefore, the probability of BJP going ahead with a Brahmin face as the next national president is also less probable, additionally the probability of BJP going ahead with leaders from communities who only belong to a specific state also looks less probable. Even 3 south Indian presidents of the party belonged to Dalit groups or from the OBC community which has a significant presence in UP. The BJP has also gone ahead with faces who are active in the national politics scenario which again bleaks the chances of state level leaders in the country.
Possible Contenders
Keeping the above factors in mind and the unique conclusions we have drawn, here are the possible contenders, who can become the national president of BJP in the upcoming time.
1.Satish Poonia:- Satish Poonia is currently serving as the general secretary of BJP. He hails from Marwar region of Rajasthan and has served as the state president of Rajasthan BJP in the early 2020s. He hails from the Jat community, which has a significant presence in the lok sabha segments of:- Kairana, Muzzafarnagar, Saharanpur, Rampur, Moradabad, Agra, Fathepur Sikri, Nagina, Bijnor, Baghpat, Meerut, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Hathras amongst others in UP. Additionally, Jats are seen as a critical voting bloc in Haryana and Rajasthan, which makes them an influential vote bank which any party would like to seek in the longer run.
Satish Poonia served as the election incharge in Haryana vidhan sabha elections, post which the national political mood changed in the favour of BJP, giving him the post will allow BJP to recapture some of the Jat votes which it lost in good numbers during the 2024 Lok sabha elections, due to various factors like - Agrarian distress, farmers protests amongst others.
Given, BJP has a strong organisation in these states, making a Jat face as the national president may help BJP consolidate its position. He has been a politician who is associated with the ABVP & RSS from his younger days, which make him a very strong candidate. Making a Jat as party president would also reduce dependency on parties like RLD whose vote shift was very weak in the 2024 Lok sabha election results, which can be seen by the fact that, BJP won in Jat heartland seats like Muzzafarnagar in 2019, when RLD was with UPA.
Also given, BJPs preference for "younger 'politicians which is evident from their CM picks in critical states, Satish Poonia who is 60 years old may fit the bill well. Given, the influence of Jats on national politics, the BJP can also look at other leaders from the community, as the community has very little national representation currently post the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankar. Possible leaders from the community who may fit this bill are - Om Prakash Dhankar, Rajkumar Chahar & Captain Abhimanyu, both who also hail from Haryana.
2. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat:- The second darkhorse in the race is Gajendra Singh Shhekhawat. He is currently the minister of tourism & culture and has been a minister in the Modi government since last 6 years. He also hails from Marwar region of Rajasthan and has twice defeated political heavyweights in the Jodhpur Lok sabha constituency. He is around 58 years of age, which again is consistent with BJPs narrative of young blood infusion into politics. He has been the incharge of Punjab BJP in the 2022 election where BJP performed poorly primarily due to the farmer's protest, however, he was credited with revining the party fortunes later on in the year.
He has had prior work experience in the RSS scheme of things and additionally, is considered to be a close confidant of Union Home Minister Amit Shah. His hailing from Rajput community, where the anger of the community costed BJP seats like Pratapgarh, Prayagraj, Dhaurahara, Sitapur, Kheri, Kannauj, Etah, Arrah, Buxar, Aurangabad, Sasaram, Karakat, Jehanabad, Churu etc. may help BJP to recover the lost base in the community. Additionally, his elevation would make him only the second Rajput president in BJPs history after Rajnath Singh. Possible leaders from the community who may fit this bill are:- Trivendra Singh Rawat, Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Radha Mohan Singh amongst others.
However, the appointment of a Rajput president is also slightly difficult given, that, BJP already has representation in the form of Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath whose pre sant samaj life was of a Rajput and Rajasthan DCM Diya Kumari who is a rising star in Rajasthan politics.
3. Ganesh Singh:- Ganesh Singh is currently serving as a fifth term MP from the Satna lok sabha segment located in the state of Madhya Pradesh. He is a leader who hails from Kurmi community, another community which has a range of influence starting from Awadh region of UP upto Mayurbhanj district of UP. This also includes regions like Purvanchal & states like Jharkhand & Bihar, where the NDA lost seats in good numbers due to not having enough Kurmi leadership in its ranks.
Seats such as Ayodhya, Ambedkar Nagar in UP and some seats in West Bengal like Bankura were lost as this community's support base has been slipping consistently. In this case, making a Kurmi as its national president who also has a strong background in RSS & ABVP, may help BJP to re-energize its cadre in these areas. This would also allow BJP to startegically eat into the base of parties like Apna Dal & JDU, who have seemed to struggle a bit since the past 5-6 years. Other faces from Kurmi community who may fit this bill are:- Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato, Pankaj Chaudhary and Swatantra Dev Singh.
However, the appointment of Ganesh Singh is a little bit difficult given, that BJP already has 3 OBC leaders, namely, Mohan Yadav who is current MP CM, Shivraj Singh Chouhan & Jyotiraditya Scindia who are union ministers, making a fourth leader from the similar Malwa or Bundelkhand region, may end up creating parallel power centers which the party may wish to avoid.
4. Brijmohan Agarwal:- The other face in the race, can be current MP from Raipur, Brijmohan Agarwal. Brijmohan Agarwal is a 7 time MLA from Raipur city and is the first MP from Raipur. He belongs to the bania community which has consistently supported BJP since its formation. His background in ABVP & RSS may help him to bag the top post. The bania community is influential across all the states of North India and it would mean a full support from RSSs top brass in the longer run as well. Given Chattissgarh is a BJP stronghold state, an appointment from the state, may send out a good signal to the BJP leaders from the smaller states in the country. His appointment would also help in to bring Chattissgarh into national focus given the state's push to go onto a path of development after facing the brunt of naxalism for decades. Other faces from the bania community can be:- Radha Mohan Das Agarwal amongst others. Him being close to 67 years, would also not post a parallel leadership challenge to existing trioka of Arun Sao, Vishnu Deo Sai and Vijay Sharma. Other faces from Chattisgarh can be:- Lata Usendi, Renuka Singh Saruta, Tokhan Sahu and Santosh Pandey.
5. Virendra Kumar Khatik:- The other face in the race can be current MP from Tikamgarh, Virendra Kumar Khatik.Khatik is a multiple time MP from Tikamgarh and has been serving as a union minister in various ministries since the past few years. He belongs from the Dalit community and from the Bundelkhand region, where BJP saw substantial losses in the 2024 lok sabha elections. In fact, the BJP lost a lot of dalit reserved seats in 2024, primarily because of the opposition's campaign on reservation and constitution change. With BJP also conducting the caste census in 2026, having a dalit president of the party who has a very strong RSS background, may help, BJP to not only set the optics right but also regain some of the Non Jatav Dalit votes which it lost in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 elections. Given, BJP doesnt have a single Dalit CM, though it does have, multiple dalit deputy CMs like Jagdish Devda & Prem Chand Bairwa. Him being a low profile and a 70 year old leader, will prevent formation of power centers within the party which is also ideal in a party like BJP, where every leader has a replacement ready. Other faces from the Dalit community can be:- Baby Rani Maurya, Dushyant Kumar Gautam and Shantanu Thakur amongst others.
6. Pratima Bhowmik:- The other face in the race can be former West Tripura MP, Pratima Bhowmik. She was a strong contender to become the CM of tripura post the 2023 election results as is called as Tripura didi in the party circles. Pratima Bhowmik belongs from the North East region of the country and having its first woman president from the North east which still has matriarchial society, today, would help BJP to enter into a new age of inclusion politics. This would also give a chance to the party to corner the congress, who has never made any person from the Northeast as its national president. Pratima Bhowmik is also from the Bengali speaking group, which has a massive presence in states of West Bengal, Tripura, Meghalaya amongst others. Her being a former MoS in the Modi cabinet along with being a long term RSS member can count as brownie points for her. Being from North east would also help BJP to neutralize, the caste equations that are massively prevalent in the country and actually make politics development oriented.Other faces from Bengali community and from North east who can be:- Biplab Kumar Deb, union minister Sarbnanda Sonowal amongst others.
7. Virendra Sachdeva:- Virendra Sachdeva is the current BJP state president of Delhi. He belongs from the state unit of a state which is very much national and whose issues disproportionately dominate the national headlines, policy issues amongst others. The delhi unit of BJP is known to be a divided house in the past, but Sachdeva was able to handle all these differences well. Him being from the Khatri community which has solidly & ideologically backed BJP since the days of Bharatiya Jana Sangh can be a gamechanger in party politics of India. Being from Delhi, he can also understand national politics better than most other leaders of the country. The Khatri community is also seen as a caste neutral community, which may help BJP to develop leaders rationally across societies in the whole of India. Sachdeva is also a lifelong RSS member and is also a part of the Archery Association of India, which can make him a useful asset in controlling sport bodies of India who have been long accused of being involved in intra body politics.Other leaders from the Khatri community who can become the national president are Harsh Malhotra, Sunil Bansal & Manohar Lal Khattar amongst others.
Now, all the above names have been given, keeping in mind 3 factors, namely, geographical representation, caste equations and connect with the Sangh Parivar. However, politics is the most dynamic subject of the world, which can change anytime and any leader can hit the lottery. The other possible darkhorses in the race can be - Gangapuram Kishan Reddy, Ram Madhav, CR Patil, Dharmendra Pradhan, Basavaraj Bommai, Bhupendra Yadav, Smriti Irani and Om Prakash Dhurve amongst the cadres of BJP. At the end of the day, the country will have a new national president for the BJP and it would be interesting to see on who becomes the party president of India's largest political party.
