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| Source - The Frontline Magazine |
This article is a continuation & the final article in the series of Vidhan Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu and the seats which BJP may end up contesting as a part of the NDA alliance inb Tamil Nadu. All the data has been picked up from form B data published by Election Commission of India.
1. Krishnagiri & Tiruppur - Krishnagiri seat is also located in the heart of the Kongu region in Tamil Nadu. This seat was contested by BJP & ADMK separately in the 2024 lok sabha elections. ADMK finished second on this seat with 25% votes, while BJP polled upto 18.5% votes in this constituency. BJPs candidate here was C. Narasimhan, who was a former MP with Tamil Manila Congress (Mopanar). This lok sabha segment, has 3 ADMK MLAs which again makes, it as a part of alliance "dharma", to ask not for those seats, though BJP may try to ask those in talks with ADMK.
Hosur, a satellite city located close to Karnataka saw one of the most interesting set of results in the lok sabha elections. BJP polled close to 60,000 votes in this seat, while ADMK followed a close second with around 55,000 votes. This seat currently has a DMK MLA. The last election was contested by ADMK via its candidate, S. Jyoti who polled around 1.05 lakh votes here, who lost the election to the DMK MLA by a small margin of only 13,000 votes. One reason, why the BJP leadership must demand ADMK to conceede this seat to them, is because, BJP has contested here in 4 elections - 2016,2011,2006 & 2001, on its own strength and has always polled at least 30,000 votes in this seat. Given, Hosur's proximity to Karnataka, maybe, a candidate who can work with the cadres of Karnataka BJP can be given a candidature here. This is a seat, which ADMK may also be willing to conceede because in the 21st century, barring one election, ADMK has never won this seat, though it has raked up impressive performances.
Thalli, another vidhan sabha segment included in the krishnagiri lok sabha segment, is another interesting seat where hectic negotiations can be expected. BJP polled close to 50,000 votes here while, ADMK, polled around 36,000 votes. In 2021, BJPs candidate, Dr. C. Nagesh Kumar contested this seat who ended up polling a respectable 64,415 votes losing to CPI candidate by a margin of 56,000 votes. Given, the cumulative performance of NDA increased on this seat, hence, there maybe a possibility that BJP may contest this seat, furthermore, BJP had its own MLA here back in 2001, where it was not in an alliance with ADMK. Finally, given, this seat is kind of an urban seat, BJP may want to experiment by expanding in TN cities first & then going deeper into the rural hinterlands in areas where its weak. ADMK may not be averse to conceeding this seat, considering ADMK has never had its MLA here, since the party's inception. In fact, the only 2 times, where anti DMK parties have won in this seat is by BJP in 2001 & Janata Party in 1989.
Tiruppur is another seat, which has been BJPs area of focus since a long time now. BJPs padyatra, named En Mann En Makkal of K. Annamalai had concluded in this particular lok sabha segment. This seat currently has 3 ADMK MLAs, while the seat of Gobichettypalyam is vacant after ADMK MLA & current TVK leader, K. Sengottiyan rebelled against the leadership of EPS late in 2025 & joined TVK. Hence, given the fluid dynamics of this seat, BJP at max lay claim to 1 seat where it can probably have its candidate during the election. The performance vidhan sabha wise of BJP here, was quite underwhelming which came in as a surprise to many election observers.
The only seat, where BJP can have a strong claim is in the Tiruppur South seat. This seat was contested by S. Gunashekaran of ADMK, who polled around 70k votes and lost to DMK MLA by only around 5k votes. BJP polled close to 34,000 votes in this seat in 2024 & ADMK polled 35,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat twice but has never polled more than 7k votes, hence, EPS may be averse in allocating this seat to BJP. Furthermore, given the bitter fallout between EPS & KA Sengottiyan, which is expected to translate in Tiruppur lok sabha seat, ADMK cadres would be hyperactive in proving that, it the 2 leaves symbol that gives anyone acceptance over anyone's personal clout.
2. Coimbatore - Coimbatore is the second largest city in Tamil Nadu after Chennai. This is another city, where BJP has performed well historically. BJP has had its own MP here in the aftermath of the 1996 Coimbatore bombings & has contested this seat repeatedly at a lok sabha level since 1996. BJP polled close to 4.5 lakh votes in this constituency, where the candidate was former IPS & BJP cadre's favorite, K. Annamalai.
He finished second with a 32% vote share, ADMKs young turk, Singai Ramachandran polled around 2.5 lakh votes which was one of the reasons why BJP ended up losing this seat. The vidhan sabha segments falling under this seat, may prompt BJP to ask ADMK to allocate more seats, given, its comparitively better performance. While, ADMK may be expected to cite, alliance dharma here, by quoting that, 5/6 MLAs belong from ADMK. Given, the 4 cornered election of TN this time, with players like UPA, NDA, NTK & Joseph Vijay's TVK all in play, the chances of a "friendly" fight would be very risky for both the alliance partners.
BJP currently has 1 MLA here in the form of Vanathi Srinivasan, who defeated MNM founder & actor Kamal Hasan in a closely contested fight from the Kovai South constituency. BJP polled 71,000 votes here & BJP is expected to retain this seat in the alliance talks as ADMK polled just 19,000 votes in this constituency. This seat is expected to contested by BJP.
Sulur is another constituency, where alliance talks are expected to be intense. The reason being, BJP polled 75,501 votes while ADMK polled around 52k votes in the LS 2024 elections. Current MLA from this seat is VP Kandasamy, who polled around 1.2 lakh votes here. BJP has contested this seat, very few times in its history, where in 2016, they polled around 15,000 votes. Additionally, ADMK has always been the most dominant party in this seat, hence, its unlikely that ADMK may yield this seat to BJP.
Kavundanapalayam is a seat, where BJP polled more than 1 lakh votes in the lok sabha elections. ADMK polled just more than 50,000 votes, which strengthens BJPs claim for this seat. The seat is currently held by PRG Arunkumar of ADMK. BJP had contested this seat in 2016 on its own strength & polled around 22,000 votes which is still a respectable number. However, ADMK may find it difficult to yield this seat, only because, ADMK has won the last 3 elections on this seat. Maybe, a middle ground for both parties can be to field an ADMK candidate on BJP symbol, which may inspire BJP cadres to work for the candidate. Furthermore, ADMK can also effectively mobilise its local resources over this seat. Given, this seat is also fairly urban in its outlook, hence, BJP may end up being one of the favourable parties for the middle class voters. However, to win in the Coimbatore district, a rally of PM Narendra Modi & other star campaigners like Devendra Fadnavis, Tejasvi Surya are needed to swing this seat in favour of BJP. BJP may be willing to field one of its senior leaders on this side. Therefore, this is one seat, which BJP may ask vigorosly from ADMK.
Palladam is a seat where BJP polled 76,000 seats while ADMK polled 51,000 votes here in LS 2024 elections. Despite, the LS 2024 being a national election, where ADMK did not campaign massively, ADMKs strong performance on this vidhan sabha segment & the fact that ADMK has held this seat since 2001 onwards, would make ADMK averse from sharing this seat to BJP, whose best performance here was in 2016 where it contested alone & polled 13,000 votes finishing fourth behind MDMK. Hence, this seat for all practical purposes may remain with ADMK.
Coimbatore North, is a seat where BJP polled around 53,000 votes while ADMK polled 29,000 votes. The low gap between the two and again the fact that, this seat has consistently elected ADMK MLAs, may again desist EPS from allocating this seat to BJP. However, BJP must try to convince the ADMK leadership to allocate it one of the two seats of Coimbatore North & Kavundanapalayam, where BJP has had a base & has done decent enough electoral performance in the past.
Singanallur is a rural seat in this lok sabha segment where BJP polled around 64k votes while 31k votes were polled by ADMK. ADMKs MLA here is KR Jayaram. This seat is an anti incumbency seat which means that every election the candidate has to be changed, except for 1 MLA, this seat is notoriously known for changing its MLA every election. BJP last contested this seat in 2016 where it polled around 8% votes, maybe BJP will try to bargain this seat from ADMK, which may not conceede this seat to BJP. This seat also falls under the belt of influence of ADMK supremo, Edapaddi Palanisamy who would like to prove his mettle in an election which is led by ADMK. However, a change in candidate cannot be ruled out, maybe, BJP can try to give its candidate on ADMK symbol, in order to avoid disappointing its cadres in this seat.
3. Kanyakumari - From the west of TN, the district where BJP has consistently done well over the years, despite all the negative propaganda by UPA is in Kanyakumari district. BJP had its MP in Pon Radhakrishnan here in 2014. Currently, 4/6 seats in this district are held by Congress, one by ADMK & one by BJP. This seat was again contested by both BJP & ADMK in the Lok sabha election. BJP finished second with around 36% vote share, while ADMK put up an abysmal performance & finished fourth with a vote share of just 4% on this seat. Hence, this is one district where the BJP is expected to pocket
BJP has its MLA in Nagercoil seat where it polled close to 71,000 votes compared to ADMKs 8300 votes. BJPs MLA is MR Gandhi who won this seat last time with a good margin of close to 11,000 votes. Additionally, ADMK has had its MLA only twice here which will again desist EPS from contesting this seat, hence the probability of BJP contesting this seat is really high. BJP may even repeat its candidate on this seat, given that, the MLA has been called as local Kamarajar in media circles here.
Kanniyakumari (VS) - This seat currently has an ADMK MLA. This vidhan sabha seat is the only segment where ADMK polled more than 10,000 votes in the LS 2024 elections, which was less than 16% of the votes polled by BJP who polled up close to 78,000 votes. This seat has been represented majorly by either ADMK or DMK since its inception. BJP did contest here on its own strength sans alliance in 2016 & 2011, where it did poll a respectable figure of 11% votes here. Given the anti incumbency nature of this seat, where almost no MLA has ever been repeated, hence, it makes sense for the BJP leadership to ask this particular seat from the ADMK leadership. Given, this seat has seen Nadar community leaders as its MLAs majority of the times, hence, BJP may be enthusiastic to field a senior Nadar leader like Pon Radhakrishnan or Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan from this seat, given, that ADMK struggled on this seat sans BJP support, hence it would make sense to do a symbol exchange by sending one of its candidates on the lotus symbol.
Colachel - This seat has a Congress MLA currently. BJP polled close to 60,000 votes here while ADMK polled around 5,000 votes in this seat. The cumulative NDA performance here was more or less the same as in 2021 VS election, where a BJP candidate had contested this seat. Given, BJPs strong performance in the Lok sabha election & the mere fact that, ADMK last had its MLA in 2001, the ADMK leadership may allocate this seat to BJP once more.
Padmanabhapuram- This seat has a DMK MLA currently. Last election was contested by ADMK who polled around 35% votes and lost by close to 23,000 votes. In the lok sabha election, BJP polled 55,000 votes on its own strength, while ADMK polled just 4500 votes. Cumulatively, NDA performance was poorer than the last election. BJP contested this seat in 2016 where it polled around 20% votes which dented ADMKs victory march in Jayalalithaa's last election. In fact, BJPs first MLA in the state, C. Velayudham was from this particular seat itself. Given, BJPs strong performance here persistently and the induction of V. Vijayadharini, maybe BJP leadership would be keen to contest this seat over ADMK. Also, because, ADMK has won this only twice, may make EPS to develop cold feet from contesting this seat once again.
Vilvancode - This seat has a Congress MLA. Last election in 2021, was contested by BJPs VS Nanthini. BJP polled around 35% votes here, after the Congress MLA, Vijayadharini's defection which neccesiated a bypoll, BJP polled around 33% votes while ADMK recieved just 3% votes here. BJP polled around 54,000 votes here while ADMK polled 4200 votes here in the LS 2024 election, roughly same as that polled in byelections or in 2021.This seat has never elected a non Congress or UPA candidate in its history. BJP has contested this seat consistently since 2011, where despite no alliances it has polled consistently more than 25% votes which can be counted as BJPs own cadre votes. This is one seat, which can again see a BJP candidate in fray.
Killiyoor - This seat is also a seat which has consistently elected UPA MLAs in its history. The current MLA is from Congress here. BJP polled 45,000 votes here while ADMK polled 3,000 votes here. Given, how, BJPs position is comparitively strong in this district, ADMK may want to contest this seat to make sure that the cadres work in unity in the election, something which costed the alliance in the last elections. The last election was contested by ADMK who polled around 46,000 votes & given this seat is more of a rural seat, hence, ADMK contesting this seat with its established machinery should not be a major problem for the alliance. Hence, this seat may be contested by ADMK over the BJP. However, given, the nature of this seat which has barely elected a sitting MLA thrice, it may open up the seat to NDA alliance, given Congress has had its MLA over the past 2 elections now, here.
Therefore, there are good chances that, BJP may end up contesting in around 5 out of 6 seats in Kaniyakumari district. This district, would require, BJPs leaders like K. Annamalai or Nainar Nagendran or some English speaking christian leaders, to campaign for it, given that, this district has a good population of Christians as well.
4. Ramanathapuram - This seat is one of the most interesting lok sabha segments in the country. This seat, even had the talks for a brief time, that, this seat would see Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would contest in the LS 2024 election. This seat hosts the legendary, Shivlingam set up Shri Rama after defeating Lankan king Raavan. This lok sabha seat was allocated to now, DMK leader, O. Panneerselvam who contested surprisingly on an independent jackfruit symbol. This seat also saw interesting tactics adopted as there were many multiple independents with the name Pannerselvam who were fielded. All the MLAs here are of Congress & DMK, which opens up a pandora box kind of situation for the alliance here.
OPS contested this seat as an independent, probably because he wanted to win this election & keep his chances of reclaiming dual leadership post in ADMK open, which did not happen. OPS polled around 31% votes here as an independent without 2 leaves symbol, while ADMK polled around 8% votes here. This does mean, that the ADMK cadres here, consider OPS as their leader. In fact, all the vidhan sabha segments in this segment has either DMK or Congress, while the MP belongs to IUML, which points out to a significant minority population. This opens up a chance unexpectedly here, who may want to contest some seats in this district.
The fact that this district is called one of the areas under Thevar belt, makes it interesting to see how the seat sharing happens between TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK, ADMK & BJP. BJP contested 2019 elections here with a vote share of 31% with its current state president Nainar Nagendran being the candidate, surprisingly strengthens BJPs claim. This seat would require Thevar leaders like Nainar Nagendran & TTV Dhinakaran really campaign hard for ADMK alliance.
Arathangi - This seat saw OPS poll 41,206 votes while ADMK candidate secured 11,800 votes. BJP has never contested this seat. Last election was contested by ADMK which polled around 31% votes, BJP has contested this seat only in 2011, where it polled around 2200 votes. Even AMMK polled just 2200 votes here, which will see very less chance of ADMK leaving this seat to either of its NDA alliance partners, on which it depends today to bring Mukkalathor Thevar votes. However, if the anti ADMK sentiment in this influential community continues till election, there may be a good chance of ADMK allocating this seat to BJP or AMMK while sending its candidate on their symbol.
Tiruchuli - BJP backed OPS polled around 42,000 votes while ADMK secured 23,000 votes. The last election saw ADMK contest here, with polling around 24% votes, while AMMK polled 4% votes here. BJP contested this seat in 2011 & 2016, where it polled 1000 votes. Given, now, even OPS is not even there in ADMK and has joined DMK formally, the traction amongst ADMK cadres towards him may reduce, which may make EPS averse from giving this seat to BJP. Given, this seats's rural nature, BJP would be averse from disturbing any "caste combinations" that dominate the discussions in rural areas of India, even today.
Paramakudi - This is the only SC reserved seat in this constituency. BJP contested this seat in 2016, where its Tiruvallur candidate, Pon V. Balaganapathy polled 5% votes, despite a Jayalalithaa wave in the sate. OPS secured around 58,000 votes here while ADMK polled 16,000 votes here which is quite surprising as this seat has been an ADMK stronghold since many years. ADMK lost this seat by a bare margin of around 13,000 votes in the last election. This seat has seen, Mr. Seeman's NTK polled around 10% votes in the last election & given the election rhetoric of Seeman which is anti Dravidian majors, hence, this seat may see strong winds blowing towards NTK as well. Given, all of this factors and the possible induction of Puthiya Tamilagam founder K. Krishnaswamy into the alliance, BJP may well try to convince K. Krishnaswamy to contest here on its symbol here. In this way, BJP can cozy up to the Devendra Kulla Vellalar voters, where BJP has been trying to aggressively expand since 2021 elections.
Tiruvadanai - This seat saw OPS poll around 62,000 votes while ADMK polled 14,000 votes. ADMK in the last election lost this seat by just 6% votes & this seat saw TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK hold sway where he polled 16% votes, hence any chance of BJP getting this seat is really low. BJP had contested this seat in 2016 where it did poll 6.5% votes, but, this seat may see, some ADMK candidate who is acceptable to AMMK & BJP cadres being fielded by BJP. But, the presence of 2 NDA constituents who saved their deposits, weakens BJPs claim over this seat.
Ramanathapuram (VS) - This seat saw OPS poll 66,000 votes while ADMK polled 15,000 votes. This seat was contested by BJP in the last election which polled around 60,000 votes. This seat is one of those vidhan sabha seats where NDAs cumulative vote share increased by 21,000 votes. This seat may see BJPs candidate for another election as BJP has consistently polled around 10% or more vote share here in 2011 & 2016. ADMKs last MLA was its IT minister, who is currently in jail over rape allegations, hence ADMK would certainly not like to ruin its image, by giving that minister a ticket here. However, ADMKs underwhelming performance here, may force it to reallocate this seat to BJP. AMMK had polled just 3% votes, which weakens their claim over this seat. However, BJP can try out to give this seat to some former OPS loyalist, who can pull votes of his supporters from DMK.
Mudukalathur - This seat saw OPS poll 72,000 votes while ADMK polled just 18,000 votes. The cumulative votes by current NDA here was more than ADMKs tally of 81,000 in 2021. This seat had seen, AMMK poll around 8% votes in the last election. BJP has contested here but its vote share is just around 2%, which says that, the cadre concentration for BJP is quite weak here. Hence, this seat may again see an ADMK candidate, however, an ADMK candidate who can work well with AMMK is needed in order to swing this seat to NDAs favour.
5. Tirunelvelli - This seat saw a direct contest between BJP & ADMK. This part is also a region where OBC Thevar community forms a good proportion of population. BJPs candidate here was current state president Nainar Nagendran, who polled 31% votes while ADMK polled just 8% votes. This was one of those seats, where BJP actually decisively pushed ADMK to the third place. This seat has 1 ADMK MLA in Ambasundaram, hence BJP demanding that seat wont make a lot of electoral sense as the BJP cant force a seemingly "senior" partner to allocate it all the seats. The other MLAs in this seat are from UPA, which again gives BJP enough room to negotiate with ADMK.
BJP has its MLA here in Tirunelveli in the form of Nainar Nagendran who would most likely retain this seat again. He polled around 65,000 votes though he did lose around 14,000 votes but that was most likely the cadre vote of ADMK who polled around 14,000 votes here. This means, that he is a strong face of BJP over this seat. He may contest here again as a BJP candidate.
Alangulam- This seat is currently represented by ADMK rebel MLA Manoj Pandian, who won this seat with a slender margin of around 2,000 votes last time. BJPs Nainar Nagendran polled around 56,000 votes while ADMK polled 22,000 votes here. BJP has contested this seat in 2016, where i t polled around 2% votes, hence BJPs cadre strength may not ideally demand this seat to be allocated to it. In last election, an independent A. Hari Nadar had polled around 19% votes here, if BJP manages to do something with such a controversial MLA, then only there is a chance that ADMK may allocate this seat to BJP. However, BJP contesting this seat probability is low because, ADMK cadre & EPS would be enthusiastic to prove that they have not lost a lot with the defection of the MLA to DMK.
Palayamkottai - This seat is a core DMK seat which has elected only a DMK MLA since 1996. In fact this seat is a minority dominated seat, which may not move the BJP leadership to contest this seat, though BJP polled a humungous number of 43,000 votes while ADMK polled 8,000 votes here in 2024 LS election. ADMK had contested this seat in the last election where it polled 36,000 votes and lost by a margin of 53,000 votes. BJP has contested this seat back in 2011 & 2016, where it did poll around 5% votes, hence there is a chance that BJP may send its candidate to ADMK to fight on 2 leaves symbol to signal alliance strengthening in the district of state BJP president. Or maybe, BJP can actually contest this seat giving it has some cadre strength.
Radhapuram - This seat has a DMK MLA. BJP polled 58,000 votes while ADMK polled 17,500 votes. Last election was contested by current ADMK Rajya Sabha member IS Inbadurai who lost the election with just around 6,000 votes. Though, ADMK may be averse in allocating this seat to BJP, but BJP may contest this seat by citing that the last time BJP contested this seat in 2016, it did poll upto 6% votes. There may have a chance of BJP contesting this seat.
Nanguneri - This is a seat where BJP did poll around 57,000 votes while ADMK polled 15,000 votes in LS 2024 election. However, BJP may not stand a chance to contest this seat as, this seat had AMMK poll 16% votes in the last election. Hence, this seat is up for negotiations between ADMK & AMMK.
6. Miscallenous -
There are a few other seats where BJP end up contesting based on the Lok Sabha poll results. Some of them are -
Orthandu - This seat was one of the seats where BJP polled more votes than ADMK in Thanjavur lok sabha seats. It polled around 31,000 votes while ADMK polled 26,000 votes.ADMK had contested this seat in 2021 where it polled 90,000 votes & has an ADMK MLA, which may make EPS averse to allocating this seat to BJP. Maybe, BJP cadres would be made more involved in the campaignining process.
Karaikudi - This seat saw BJP poll around 43,000 votes while ADMK polled 32,000 votes in LS 2024 elections. This seat falls under Sivagangai lok sabha seat which was contested by caste leader T.Devanathan Yadav (Currently in jail) on BJPs symbol. BJPs H. Raja had contested this seat in 2021 and had lost by a small margin, which may again see ADMK allocate this seat to BJP, though to win BJP needs more coordination with ADMK.
Conclusion -
Based on the analysis of 70 seats across 15 Lok Sabha seats that was conducted by the author. Here is the cumulative seats which may have a BJP candidate in the upcoming TN elections. The interesting fact is that, all the seats which BJP end up contesting would be in urban areas or in urban periphery areas where the party has expanded over the past few years. While, BJP has expanded in the state however, its growth still remains heavily concentrated in certain districts like - Coimbatore, Kaniyakumari, Ramnad, Tirunelveli, Chennai region & some parts of Vellore, Madurai, Krishnagiri & Pollachi. BJP needs to invest in any caste combination like how it did in states like Maharashtra, to expand in rural areas & raise state relevant issues in the urban areas as BJPs textbook expansion has always been to win over in urban areas first. BJP must also ask parties like Tamil Manila Congress, TMMK, IJK & other smaller caste parties to merge with it so that the cadre strength is increased, this would always put BJP in a stronger position to negotiate with ADMK in the state. This article did not analyse the other 14 odd seats which the BJP had left out to its alliance partners as leaving those seats to allies itself means that BJPs position in those seats may not be very strong, maybe BJP can end up getting some seats there but, it would be very difficult ones considering BJPs cadre strength.
Overall, the seats which BJP may end up contesting in this election (on these specific lok sabha covered):- Karaikudi, Radhapuram, Tirunelvei, Ramanathapuram, Paramkudi, Vilvancode, Padmanabhapuram, Kaniyakumari, Colachel, Kiliyoor, Coimbatore South, Kavundanapalayam, Hosur, Thalli, Tiruppur South, Thousand Lights, Harbour, Anna Nagar, Chepauk, Egmore, Villivakkam, Mylapore, Velachery, Madurai South, Madurai Central, Udagamandalam, Conoor & Vellore. This totals around - 29.
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